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西班牙火车灾难给桑切斯的连任前景蒙上阴影Spain train disaster clouds Sánchez chances of re-election

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2026年10月29日,西班牙托莱多附近两列相撞列车的景象,救援起重机在现场,背景是平原和山丘View of the two smashed trains near Toledo, Spain, 29 Oct 2026, with rescuers' cranes at scene and a plain and hills in background

莎拉·雷恩斯福德 南欧和东欧记者 托莱多 9分钟前 本周西班牙的突发新闻令人震惊,却又令人震惊地熟悉:从马德里向南的高铁线上又发生了一起相撞事故,据报道造成数十人死亡。

Sarah Rainsford Southern and Eastern Europe correspondent Toledo 9 minutes ago The breaking news from Spain this week was shocking but also shockingly familiar: another collision on the high-speed rail line south from Madrid, with reports of dozens killed.

距离科尔多瓦附近两列火车相撞、造成46人死亡仅过去了九个月。如今,在西班牙中部的这里,已从散落在轨道上和路堤下的残骸中寻回了69具遗体。对遇难者家属而言,这是毁灭性的打击;一场个人的悲剧。

It is just nine months since two trains crashed near Cordoba, killing 46 people. Now 69 bodies have been recovered here in central Spain, from wreckage strewn over the tracks and down an embankment. For the victims' families it is devastating; a personal tragedy.

但这也是一场国家灾难,动摇了民众对该国铁路网以及佩德罗·桑切斯领导的社会党政府的信心。事发距离他宣布提前举行大选仅几周时间。

But it is also a national disaster that has shattered confidence in the country's rail network and the Socialist-led government of Pedro Sánchez. It is playing out just weeks before the snap general election he called.

桑切斯此前已因涉嫌腐败和住房成本问题面临公众愤怒 托莱多火车灾难的正式调查才刚刚启动,但政府迅速掌控了舆论叙事。

Pedro Sánchez was already facing public anger over alleged corruption and housing costs The formal investigation into the Toledo train disaster has only just been launched but the government has been quick to take control of the narrative.

佩德罗·桑切斯此前已因涉嫌腐败和住房成本问题面临公众愤怒Pedro Sánchez was already facing public anger over alleged corruption and housing costs

从碰撞发生后的最初几个小时起,交通部长奥斯卡·普恩特便开始暗示事故归咎于“人为失误”,竭力将责任推向内阁之外。

From the first hours after the collision, Transport Minister Oscar Puente began suggesting "human error" was to blame, batting responsibility as far as possible from the cabinet.

周五,他第二次出席新闻发布会,陈述他所谓的事故“客观事实”,并回应针对政府的批评浪潮。

On Friday, he appeared before the press for a second time to set out what he called the "objective facts" of the crash and counter a surge of criticism against the government.

反对党人民党(PP)是要求他以“道德”和“伦理”理由辞职的群体之一。

The opposition People's Party (PP) is among those calling for his resignation as a "moral" and "ethical" move.

普恩特在表达了对遇难者“巨大的痛苦和悲伤”后,却转而采取进攻姿态。

Instead after expressing "huge pain and sadness" for the victims, Puente went on the offensive.

他驳斥了关于基础设施长期投入不足的说法,坚称西班牙高铁的LZB信号安全系统既不陈旧也不不足:德国和奥地利使用的是同一套系统。

He rejected talk of chronic underinvestment in infrastructure and insisted that Spain's high-speed signalling safety system, the LZB, was neither old nor inadequate: Germany and Austria use the same.

他透露,在西班牙,该系统今年迄今已失效170次,但称这属于“正常”现象,处于欧盟平均水平。

In Spain, it has already failed 170 times so far this year, he revealed, but called that "normal" and around the EU average.

问题在于后续环节——当系统失效、线路控制权转为人工操作时会发生什么。在这起事故中,部长强调了一系列导致灾难性后果的人为错误。

The problem surrounds what happens next - when the system fails and control of the line shifts to manual. In this case, the minister highlighted a series of human errors that proved catastrophic.

关键在于,一度有调度员指示一列停运的列车重新启动,允许其以最高160公里/小时(约100英里/小时)的速度前进,尽管前方线路上还有一列列车被困。

Crucially, at one point a controller instructed a stalled train to restart, clearing it to advance at up to 160km/h (100 mph) even though a second train was stuck on the line up ahead.

从音频通话和马德里控制中心的大屏幕上,即将发生的碰撞显而易见。

The impending collision was clear from audio calls and on big screens in the control centre in Madrid.

“系统在运行。我们核实过。他们能看到正在发生的事,”普恩特证实道。但那列前进的列车从未接到停车指令。

"They worked. We checked. They could see what was happening," Puente confirmed. But the advancing train was never ordered to stop.

“我不是法官……但这些就是事实。”那么,他是否会承担个人和政治责任并辞职?普恩特称,留任部长反而是他的“职责”。

"I'm no judge... But these are the facts." So would he take personal and political responsibility anyway, and resign? Puente called it his "duty", rather, to remain as minister.

“我将直面问题,解释,阐明,”他反驳道。“我将思考如何改进系统,让想乘坐火车出行、感到平静和安全的人重拾信心。”但西班牙人需要大量说服工作。

"I'll face up to things, explain, elucidate," he countered. "I'll think how to improve the system, and give confidence to those who want to travel by train and feel calm and safe." But Spaniards will take a lot of persuading.

“这不仅是一起非常严重的事故,而且是在极短时间内发生的第二起,”民调机构Ipsos的帕科·卡马斯指出。

"This is not only a very serious accident, but the second in a very short time," Paco Camas of the pollster Ipsos points out.

关于1月份在科尔多瓦附近的阿达穆斯发生的撞车事故的调查仍在进行中,初步报告显示铁轨存在裂缝——这与最近的这起碰撞截然不同。但影响却相似。

An investigation into January's crash in Adamuz near Cordoba, is still open, with initial reports suggesting there was a crack in the rails - very different to the latest collision. But there is a similar impact.

“这不仅摧毁了人们对铁路的信心,也摧毁了对整体制度的信心,”卡马斯警告说。“在西班牙,当此类事情发生时,我们知道人们会责怪政府。”对于桑切斯团队来说,这是危机螺旋中的最新一起。关于总理亲属涉嫌腐败的指控依然存在,均被否认。

"It destroys people's confidence not only in the railways but institutions in general," Camas warns. "And in Spain when such things happen, we know that people blame their government." For Team Sánchez it is the latest in a spiral of crises. Allegations of corruption against the prime minister's close relatives still persist, all denied.

随后,今夏突然涌入大量摩洛哥移民至西班牙飞地休达。这让右翼反对派高呼无能和资金不足。

Then there was a sudden influx of migrants from Morocco this summer to the Spanish exclave of Ceuta. That got right-wing opponents shouting about incompetence and underfunding.

后来,一段老人被强行驱逐出家门的视频在网络疯传,引发街头抗议。

Later, a video of a pensioner being forcibly evicted from her home went viral and sparked street protests.

就在那时,桑切斯宣布提前大选。即使在列车事故发生前,他赢得选举的前景就已渺茫。现在,胜算更是直线下跌。

That's when Sánchez called an early election His chances of winning the vote looked slim even before the train crash. Now they have plummeted.

NurPhoto via Getty Images 玛里卡门·阿瓦斯卡尔在居住了70多年的家中被驱逐,随后去世,引发了西班牙各地大规模的住房抗议。最近的大多数民调显示,中右翼的人民党将获得第一,并将与极右翼的呼声党组建联合政府。

NurPhoto via Getty Images The death of Maricarmen Abascal, evicted from her home of more than 70 years, sparked widespread housing protests across Spain Most recent polls showed the centre-right PP coming first and forming a coalition with the far-right Vox. "They have this majority in almost 95% of the simulations we have done," Prof Pablo Simon of Madrid's Carlos III University explains.

马里卡门·阿巴斯卡被逐出居住70多年的家后去世,在西班牙各地引发了广泛的住房抗议The death of Maricarmen Abascal, evicted from her home of more than 70 years, sparked widespread housing protests across Spain

马德里卡洛斯三世大学的教授巴勃罗·西蒙解释说:“在我们进行的模拟中,他们拥有这一优势的比例接近95%。”

But Sánchez had been running a positive campaign, trying to lure apathetic voters to the polls to vote socialist. Suddenly, the tone has changed.

但桑切斯一直在进行积极的竞选活动,试图吸引冷漠的选民去投票支持社会党。突然之间,基调变了。

"They've totally lost control of the agenda and the emotion of this campaign," Simon says. "It's going to be extremely difficult now.

西蒙说:“他们完全失去了对竞选议程和情绪的控制。现在将变得极其困难。有一种普遍的颓废情绪,一种国家运转不畅的感觉。一种沮丧感。” 还有愤怒。

There is this general mood of decay, of a country that's not working properly. A depression." There is also anger.

由极右翼团体在马德里发起的针对列车事故的小规模抗议已经发生,大量警力已在周末待命,以应对网上组织的进一步潜在冲突。在托莱多,气氛紧张。

There have already been small protests over the train crash led by far-right groups in Madrid and large numbers of police are on stand-by this weekend ahead of further potential clashes, organised online. Here in Toledo, the mood is nervous.

“我们一路无言,非常悲伤,”帕洛玛在市火车站告诉我,她刚乘坐一列半空的列车抵达。她承认现在害怕乘坐高铁网络,并对政府感到愤怒。

"We all travelled in silence and really sad," Paloma told me at the city station, where she had just pulled in on a half empty train. She admitted she's scared of the high-speed network now and angry at the government.

“这次事故将彻底改变我们所有人的投票意向,”帕洛玛说。“我们将从左翼转向右翼。因为发生的一切。” 卢西亚每天乘坐高速AVE列车进马德里,她也很害怕。

"This crash will change all of our votes, completely," Paloma said. "We'll shift from the left wing to the right. Because of everything that's happened." Lucia takes the high-speed AVE into Madrid each day, and is scared too.

“这是人为失误。但已经发生了两起死亡人数超过100人的事故,”她说。“这里的情况真的很糟。必须改变。”西班牙 佩德罗·桑切斯

"This was human error. But there's been two accidents now with more than 100 dead," she says. "Things here are really bad. They have to change." Spain Pedro Sanchez

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