Britons gave Andy Burnham the benefit of the doubt in his first three months as prime minister. After an uninspiring budget, the next six weeks will test whether he can maintain the early momentum.

By Alex Wickham, Chloe Chaplain and Lucy White Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey’s fiscal statement on Wednesday landed roughly with businesses and economists, leading Labour ministers and aides to warn Burnham is now under pressure to restore a positive narrative about his government during a frenetic period ahead.

Burnham has led his party to an 8-point bounce in opinion polls in his first 100 days in office, more than triple the average for a new premier since 1955. But the political risks for the premier are piling up thick and fast.

Next month, he aims to set out ambitious but controversial plans to potentially take Britain back into the European Union, despite the reservations of senior cabinet ministers. In the run-up to year-end, he’s also set to make contentious policy decisions on welfare reform, immigration and North Sea oil. And in December, he’ll detail a 10-year plan for Britain that will need to meet his rhetoric of delivering a generational transformation of the UK economy, a moment that Labour MPs now expect will be defining for his premiership.

Burnham has to navigate all that against the backdrop of potential escalation of the Iran conflict by US President Donald Trump, which the UK government fears could derail its economic plans for the next 12 months.

The scale of the looming challenges helps explain why Healey’s low-key budget received a critical response even as markets took it in their stride. The chancellor’s 98 measures amounted to a series of modest tax rises to fund a small cost-of-living support package, while deferring larger decisions on issues such as cutting welfare and how to fund increased defense spending.

Government ministers and advisers who spoke to Bloomberg after Healey’s statement said they were underwhelmed. They spoke on condition of anonymity in order to be critical without fear of reprisal.

One minister said they were bewildered by the decision to deliver such a small-scale budget after Burnham set expectations high by promising radical change when he became premier in July. An adviser said they were angered that Labour had gone through the pain of removing Keir Starmer in the summer only to end up with a budget less bold than those undertaken by his chancellor, Rachel Reeves.

Business groups panned the statement as doing little for firms, banks opposed a tax hike targeting them and prominent think tanks including the Institute for Fiscal Studies and left-leaning Resolution Foundation criticized cost-of-living support for households as insufficient. Labour-aligned groups Mainstream and the Good Growth Foundation suggested Healey’s budget lacked ambition.

An aide said Downing Street was surprised by the level of criticism, while Burnham himself acknowledged the reaction in an ITV interview aired Friday. “The volatility of things means you just can’t necessarily deliver the budget in an ideal world you would want to deliver,” the premier conceded.

Others in the government defended Healey. One aide insisted his budget was pro-growth and pro-business, taking a responsible approach to managing the economy. Another argued it was preferable to have him as chancellor presiding over a budget welcomed by markets, rather than a left-wing alternative who would take risks with the public finances by taxing and borrowing more. A third said Healey did the best he could within the parameters set by No. 10, which didn’t want large tax rises or welfare cuts at this budget.

An early indication of public opinion suggested a mixed reception. YouGov found 45% of Britons saw the budget as fair compared to 20% who did not, but some 55% still said they thought the government is managing the economy badly.

Burnham and Healey’s decision to hold off attempting to cut soaring benefits payments this Parliament is set to come under further scrutiny next month when government-commissioned reviews into youth unemployment and welfare payments are published.

The premier is also due by mid-November to adjudicate on the thorny question of how to restrict immigration settlement rights to large numbers of people who entered the country in recent years, with cabinet ministers including Housing Secretary Angela Rayner raising concerns about Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood’s proposals. There’s also a cabinet split on whether to grant new drilling at the Rosebank oil field in the North Sea, with Healey this week implying he was in favor but Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh opposed.

As he triangulates a way forward, Burnham must balance the UK’s fiscal pressures against the demands of left-wing cabinet members and MPs not to penalize migrants and welfare recipients or breach Britain’s net zero commitments. The danger, one MP said, is the compromises that emerge please no-one and the decisions put a pin in the balloon of Burnham’s premiership.

No policy is more contentious that Burnham’s decision to explore rejoining the EU. The premier’s intention to publish options to move Britain closer to Brussels, including rejoining the bloc’s single market and accepting freedom of movement, around a summit on Nov. 20, have caused private consternation in cabinet. Several senior ministers oppose reopening debates on Brexit and free movement, fearing the Conservative opposition will take advantage, people familiar with the matter said.

Healey suggested in a Channel 4 interview that he couldn’t see the UK rejoining in his lifetime and Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds warned that businesses didn’t want “uncertainty” over the relationship.

The hope among Labour MPs is that Burnham is reserving the real ambition for his 10-year plan in December, although they also privately share doubts about how far the project has progressed and how impactful it will really be. With Downing Street in the process of hiring several policy advisers who are likely to play a key part in developing and delivering the strategy, No. 10 insists the premier’s planned speech will still happen before year-end.

MPs hoping for definitive answers may be disappointed by suggestions the premier intends the speech to be the start of a national policy conversation. A Downing Street official said the plan wouldn’t be the finished product, instead setting out an overall direction, with detailed policy work to follow.

The danger is another underwhelming set-piece moment sees Burnham lose more of his early shine.