阿亚图拉穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊在应对伊朗与美国的冲突时,希望淡出视线,但不想被遗忘。格林尼治标准时间清晨6时,当少将穆赫辛·雷扎伊本周被召唤到德黑兰郊外一处未公开地点时,他直到抵达才知道自己要见的是谁。
Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei wants to stay out of sight but not out of mind as he navigates Iran’s conflict with the US 6:00am GMT When Major General Mohsen Rezaei was summoned to an undisclosed location outside Tehran this week, he had no idea who he was going to meet until he arrived.
这位伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书即将见到的是许多人已开始相信已经死亡的人物——阿亚图拉穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊。自他接管伊斯兰共和国最有权势的职位以来,他一直没有公开露面。
The secretary of Iran’s supreme national security council was about to see a man many had come to believe was dead – Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, who has not been seen in public since he took the most powerful office in the Islamic Republic.
三天前,议会议长穆罕默德·巴盖尔·加利巴夫也经历了同样的秘密行程。
Three days earlier, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the parliament speaker, made the same secret journey.
在他之前,司法总监戈拉姆-侯赛因·穆赫辛尼-埃杰和总统马苏德·佩泽什基安也曾到访。
Before him came Gholam Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, the judiciary chief and Masoud Pezeshkian, the president.
这些会面正变得越来越频繁,伊朗官员和分析人士对《每日电讯报》表示,这正是关键所在。
The meetings are growing more frequent, and that, Iranian officials and analysts told The Telegraph, is the point.
目前已有四位高层人物受到这位领袖接见,每个人出来后都以近乎相同的措辞描述了自己与一个完全掌控大局的人的会面。
Four senior figures have now been received by the leader, each emerging to describe, in near-identical terms, an encounter with a man in full command.
在基本上淡出公众视野数月之后,伊朗正在上演一场精心安排的“最高领袖秀”,以表明他还活着、身体安康且大权在握。
After months largely out of public view, Iran is staging a carefully choreographed show of its supreme leader, signalling that he is alive, well and in the driving seat.
“他的健康状况正在好转,他想告诉那些说‘我们无法在最高领袖隐形的状态下治理体制’的神职人员,他掌管着一切,”一名伊朗官员说。另一名官员表示,这些会面是刻意安排的。
“His health is improving, and he wants to tell the clerics who say we cannot run a system with an invisible supreme leader that he is in charge of everything,” one Iranian official said. A second official said the meetings were calculated.
“他特意会见了三大权力分支的负责人和最高安全官员,以确保国家按照他的意愿运转,因为近来出现了混乱,而且没有一个统一的声音代表伊朗,”他说。
“He intentionally met the heads of all three branches of power and the top security official to make sure the country is run the way he wants, because there has been confusion and there has not been a single voice speaking for Iran recently,” he said.
“这是他在试图团结国家和各权力中心,并施展他的权威。我们不应忘记,他刚上任不久,甚至直到最近,一些神职人员仍不喜欢由他担任领袖的想法。”见过他的人都被安排亮相,以证明他的健康状况良好。
“It is his attempt to unite the country and the power centres and bring in his authority. We should not forget that he is very new, and even some in the clergy, until recently, did not like the idea of him as leader.”Those who have met him have been rolled out to attest to his good health.
加利巴夫也是伊朗的首席和平谈判代表,他告诉议会,他“身体完全健康”,并形容这位领导人“强壮、精力充沛、充满希望,沉稳而内心平静”。
Mr Ghalibaf, who is also the country’s chief peace negotiator, told parliament that he “is in full health”, describing a leader “strong, energetic, hopeful, with solidity and inner calm”.
穆赫辛尼-埃杰伊表示,他发现他“处于最稳固和健康的状态”,并坚称“在殉难领袖身上展现出的那种勇气和不可动摇的坚定,在他身上同样显而易见”。
Mr Mohseni-Ejei said he had found him “in the utmost solidity and health”, insisting that “the same courage and unshakeable steadfastness that were manifest in the martyred leader are evident in him”.
9月在联合国,美国记者追问最高领袖是否仍在履职时,佩泽希齐扬提到两人之间长达七小时的会面,并宣称他“身体完全健康”。
Pressed by US journalists at the United Nations in September on whether the supreme leader was still functioning, Mr Pezeshkian cited a seven-hour meeting between the two and declared him to be “in perfect health”.
在本周的一次内阁会议上,佩泽希齐扬提到阿亚图拉最近的一项指示,其中阐明了伊朗结束“不战不和”僵局的条件。他称这是“一个重大而重要的信息”,勾勒出了“国家未来的前景”。
At a cabinet meeting this week, Mr Pezeshkian pointed to a recent directive from the Ayatollah setting out Iran’s conditions for ending the “no war, no peace” stalemate. He called it “a major and important message” that mapped out “the horizon ahead for the country”.
德黑兰各处印有阿亚图拉穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊画像的广告牌,强化了他仍然掌控局面的信息。他告诉部长们和政府机构要削减成本、提高生产率,以确保国家始终为不断变化的形势做好准备。佩泽希齐扬表示,伊朗必须证明自己拥有“强大的韧性”,并将“以力量和团结抵御任何威胁、制裁或外国压力”。
Billboards bearing Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei’s image around Tehran reinforce the message that he remains in control He told ministers and government agencies to cut costs and boost productivity to ensure the country remained prepared for changing circumstances. Mr Pezeshkian said Iran had to prove it possessed “a high capacity for resilience” and would “stand with strength and cohesion against any threat, sanction or foreign pressure”.
他还说,敌人“不应以为通过不断施压和威胁,就能削弱伊朗民族的意志或迫使国家投降”。
The enemy, he added, “should not imagine that by piling on pressure and threats they can weaken the will of the Iranian nation or force the country into surrender”.
一位最高领袖和多名指挥官在与美国和以色列的冲突中丧生,这迫使其继任者为了自身安全而通过中间人和书面指示来治理国家。
A supreme leader and several commanders have been killed in conflicts with the US and Israel, forcing his successor to govern through intermediaries and written directives for his own protection.
根据每次与高级官员会晤后的官方通报,据说这位最高领袖专注于减轻普通伊朗人的疾苦、在四分五裂的政治阶层中促成团结,并结束与美国和以色列之间消耗国力的对峙。
According to official readouts from each meeting with top officials, the supreme leader was said to be focused on relieving the hardship of ordinary Iranians, forging unity among a fractious political class, and ending the debilitating stand-off with the US and Israel.
伊朗年度通胀率10月达到76.8%,位于霍尔木兹海峡前线的南部省份霍尔莫兹甘省物价上涨更快。
Iran’s annual inflation rate hit 76.8 per cent in October, with prices in the southern province of Hormozgan, on the front line of the embattled strait, rising even faster.
卡利巴夫表示,最高领袖希望伊朗人能够负担得起基本商品,并将“武装部队和前线战士”的福祉列为优先事项。
Mr Ghalibaf said the supreme leader wanted Iranians to be able to afford basic goods and singled out the welfare of “the armed forces and the fighters at the front” as a priority.
穆赫西尼-埃贾伊被指示对腐败开展一场“果断、迅速且不分青红皂白”的运动。这一切背后的问题是,哈梅内伊何时或是否会公开露面。
Mr Mohseni-Ejei was directed towards a “decisive, swift and non-discriminatory” campaign against corruption. Underlying it all is the question of if or when Mr Khamenei will appear in public.
今年夏天,伊朗巴斯伊吉(一支隶属于伊斯兰革命卫队的志愿准军事部队)的一名副负责人承诺,将很快发布哈梅内伊的照片和生存证明,因为对他公开露面的压力日益增大。
In the summer, a deputy head of Iran’s Basij, a volunteer paramilitary force affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), promised the imminent release of images and proof of life as pressure for a public appearance mounted.
强硬派议员埃斯迈尔·库萨里甚至声称,领袖会匿名混入公共集会,亲自了解民众的情绪。
Esmail Kowsari, a hardline MP, has gone so far as to claim the leader slips anonymously into public gatherings to see the mood of the nation for himself.
他解释说,“在当前的战时条件以及美国和犹太主义政权的恐怖威胁下,目前不宜直接露面”。其他人则认为,他的公开隐身可能带来潜在隐患。
He explained that “in the current wartime conditions and the terrorist threats of America and the Zionist regime, a direct appearance is not advisable for now”. Others see potential pitfalls attached to his public invisibility.
“他必须会见更多人,因为他没有他父亲的魅力,”德黑兰附近一所大学的一名政治学教授说,他列举了领袖长期缺席的几个原因。
“He has to meet more people because he does not have his father’s charisma,” said a political science professor at a university near Tehran, who offered several reasons for the leader’s continued absence.
德黑兰各处散布着阿亚图拉·穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊及其前任的壁画。另外,他缺席的时间越长,伊斯兰革命卫队可能变得越嚣张。
Murals of Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei and his predecessors are scattered around Tehran Separately, the longer he stays away the more emboldened the IRGC could become.
“他可能担心伊斯兰革命卫队已经将他边缘化,并利用他的名字为所欲为。”但从阴影中治理一个国家从来都不简单。
“He may be worried that the IRGC has sidelined him and is using his name to do whatever they want.”But governing a country from the shadows has never been straightforward.
“从先知时代至今,伊斯兰国家一直很难在秘密中运行,历史上这样的案例并不多,”这位伊朗教授补充道。
“An Islamic state, from the age of the Prophet until now, has always been hard to run in secret, and we do not have many such cases in history,” the Iranian professor added.
但他承认,这位领袖可能身体过于不适,无法公开露面,或者仍因导致其父亲及包括妻子在内的多名直系亲属丧生的袭击而留有永久性创伤。
But he acknowledged that the leader may be too unwell to appear in public or still bear lasting injuries from the strikes that killed his father and much of his immediate family, including his wife.
“一些伊斯兰法学认为,领袖应当身体健康,甚至相貌堂堂,并且勇敢,”他说。“所以他确实有理由担心别人如何看待自己。”一位伊朗分析人士表示,此事应当“在安全治理新方法和重建直接沟通的框架内”来理解,而不是将其视为冲突的前奏。
“Some Islamic jurisprudence says the leader should be sound in body, even good-looking, and brave,” he said. “So he would have reason to worry about how he is seen.”One Iranian analyst said it should be understood “within the framework of new methods of safe governance and the rebuilding of direct communication”, rather than as a prelude to conflict.
许多人担心,这些“秘密会面”可能暴露最高领袖的藏身之处,招致美国的暗杀企图,而这可能意味着该政权的终结。这正是如今处于伊朗政治核心的悖论。
Many fear the “secret visits” could give away the supreme leader’s hideout, leading to an assassination attempt by the US which could spell the end of the regime. That is the paradox now at the centre of Iranian politics.
关于阿亚图拉仍在掌舵的说法,取决于德黑兰无法完全控制的两件事:领袖的康复情况,以及民众的耐心——他们被要求接受少数几个人的保证,即领袖仍在掌权。目前,来自那些房间的信息是单一而坚决的。
The claim that the Ayatollah remains at the helm depends on two things Tehran cannot fully control: the leader’s recovery and the patience of a population being asked to accept assurances from a handful of men that he is in charge. For the moment, the message from those rooms is singular and insistent.
正如一位官员对《每日电讯报》所说,与部长们每一次秘密会面的目的都是一样的——向任何仍然心存疑虑的人表明,“哈梅内伊先生正在治理国家,并全面掌权”。
As one official told The Telegraph, the purpose of each clandestine meeting with ministers is the same – to demonstrate, to anyone who still doubts it, ‘that [Mr Khamenei] is running the country and is in full charge”.