Anthropic选择了一个艰难的星期来公布其首次公开募股（IPO）招股说明书。
Anthropic picked a tough week to unveil its IPO prospectus.
在其发布后的几天里，该公司的几个关键合作伙伴（包括微软、谷歌和亚马逊）发布的季度财报，进一步加剧了市场上对人工智能建设已有的焦虑情绪。
Within days of its release, several of the company's key partners, including Microsoft, Google and Amazon, reported quarterly results that added fuel to existing market jitters around the artificial intelligence buildout.
Futurum集团首席执行官丹尼尔·纽曼（Daniel Newman）周五在接受CNBC采访时表示：“每个人仍在全力推进人工智能，但周围的所有事情在本周都有了一个有趣的转折。”超级大公司的财报“让人感到意外”，并在市场上造成了新的逆风，即“对资本结构的更多质疑，”他说。
"Everybody's still full steam ahead on AI, but all the things around it took an interesting turn this week," Daniel Newman, CEO at Futurum Group, told CNBC in an interview on Friday. The hyperscalers' results have "raised eyebrows" and created a new headwind in the market, which is "more doubt on capital structure," he said.
无论当前的市场状况如何，Anthropic在未来几周推进一项可能创纪录的首次公开募股时，都将不得不面对一个持怀疑态度的投资者群体。这家人工智能公司在周一的招股说明书中披露，今年上半年净亏损800亿美元，同时伴随着数千亿美元的算力承诺以及超过90页的风险因素。投资者仍在等待Anthropic的第三季度财务数据。
No matter the current state of the market, Anthropic was going to have to address a skeptical investor base as it pursues a potentially record-setting initial public offering in the coming weeks. In its prospectus on Monday, the AI company disclosed a net loss for the first half of the year of $80 billion, alongside hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of compute commitments and more than 90 pages of risk factors. Investors are still waiting to see Anthropic's third-quarter financials.
进入本周，人们对CoreWeave和Nebius等新云服务商的财务健康状况的担忧不断加剧，它们在追求激进的人工智能建设时正面临着不断上升的借贷成本和贷款机构的短缺。Anthropic的大部分算力来自亚马逊、谷歌和SpaceX，但随着它竞相以尽可能快的速度扩张，它也依赖新云服务商提供部分算力。现在，投资者对整个人工智能交易越来越感到担忧。
Heading into this week, fears were mounting about the financial health of neoclouds like CoreWeave and Nebius, which are facing rising borrowing costs and a dearth of lenders as they pursue aggressive AI buildouts. Anthropic gets much of its capacity from Amazon, Google and SpaceX, but it also relies on neoclouds for some compute as it races to expand as quickly as possible. Now investors are growing increasingly worried about the whole AI trade.
宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院教授戴维·许（David Hsu）在接受采访时表示：“这是一项伟大的技术，似乎能做到我们从未想象过的事情，但这又如何转化为一个可行的商业模式呢？”
"It's a great technology, seems to do things that we never would have imagined, but how does that then translate into a viable business?" David Hsu, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania Wharton School, said in an interview.
纳斯达克综合指数在周五暴跌2.9%之后，创下了自3月份以来首次连续三周下跌的纪录。在英特尔发布疲弱的预测、导致其股价创下20世纪70年代以来最大跌幅之后，其图形处理器一直推动人工智能热潮的英伟达与其他整个半导体板块一同走低。
The Nasdaq Composite notched its first three-week losing streak since March after plunging 2.9% on Friday. Nvidia, whose graphics processing units have powered the AI boom, traded lower, along with the whole semiconductor sector, after Intel issued a weak forecast, sending its stock to its steepest drop since the 1970s.
微软、谷歌和亚马逊本周的财报中都流露出了担忧情绪。这些公司近年来一直在进行疯狂的支出，以满足对人工智能基础设施激增的需求，但三家公司发布的资本支出数字或预测均低于分析师预期。微软将今年的资本支出预测从175亿美元下调至170亿美元，而Alphabet维持了最高205亿美元的指引，亚马逊则重申了约220亿美元的预测。
Microsoft, Google and Amazon all had notes of concern this week in their reports. The companies have been on a spending blitz in recent years to meet the surge in demand for AI infrastructure, but all three issued capex figures or forecasts that came in below analysts' estimates. Microsoft lowered its capex forecast for the year to $170 billion from $175 billion, while Alphabet maintained its guidance for up to $205 billion and Amazon reiterated its roughly $220 billion forecast.
注：原文数据以英文为准，此处按规则严格转换 BTIG董事总经理乔纳森·克林斯基（Jonathan Krinsky）在周四的一份报告中写道：“到目前为止，对科技行业来说，这是一个糟糕的财报季。”他将这种余波描述为“科技股德州电锯杀人狂”，并补充说该板块的疲软程度太高，市场无法忽视。
"It's been an ugly reporting season for tech thus far," Jonathan Krinsky, managing director at BTIG, wrote in a Thursday note. He described the fallout as "The Techsas Chainsaw Massacre," adding that there's too much weakness in the sector for the market to ignore.
现金正在成为一个问题。亚马逊报告连续第二个季度出现自由现金流为负，在截至过去的12个月里录得424亿美元的流出。谷歌报告自由现金流为负91亿美元，这是该股周四暴跌近13%、创下有史以来最糟糕单日表现的原因之一。
Cash is becoming an issue. Amazon reported negative free cash flow for the second consecutive quarter, recording an outflow of $42.4 billion for the trailing 12-month period. Google reported negative free cash flow of $9.1 billion, one reason the stock tanked almost 13% on Thursday, its worst day ever.
微软维持了186亿美元的正自由现金流，但连续第二个季度大幅下降。该公司周四宣布计划筹集250亿美元的债券，以寻求额外的资金来源来帮助资助其基础设施扩张。
Microsoft maintained positive free cash flow of $18.6 billion, but it's down significantly for a second straight quarter. The company announced plans on Thursday to raise $25 billion in bonds, as it seeks additional sources of funding to help finance its infrastructure expansion.
纽曼说：“突然之间，他们觉得‘我们无法继续用自由现金流来资助这一切了’。令人担忧的是，基本上现在没有任何一家公司能够利用自身的业务能力来创造现金流来做到这一点。这正变得日益令人担忧。”Anthropic的超级大公司合作伙伴也是其最大的投资者。这些公司都需要彼此来保持飞轮转动，这个话题肯定会成为Anthropic即将举行的路演中的一个主要讨论点。Anthropic没有立即回应置评请求。人工智能需求仍然是Anthropic的一大东风。
"Suddenly, they're like, 'We can't keep funding this on free cash flow,'" Newman said. "The worry is that basically now there's no company that's able to do this using their own business capabilities to create cash flow. It's becoming increasingly alarming." Anthropic's hyperscaler partners are also among its biggest investors. The companies all need each other to keep the flywheel turning, a topic that's sure to be a major point of discussion in Anthropic's upcoming roadshow. Anthropic didn't immediately respond to a request for comment. A big tail wind for Anthropic remains AI demand.
微软、谷歌和亚马逊报告的云业务增长均超出了分析师预期，其中谷歌业务的收入比去年同期增长了一倍多。作为人工智能数据中心的最大支柱之一，甲骨文周三在其投资者日上表示，将在未来几年将额外的融资限制在200亿美元，并将在下一个财年下半年实现自由现金流转正。
Microsoft, Google and Amazon all reported cloud growth that topped analysts' estimates, with revenue in Google's business more than doubling from a year earlier. And Oracle, one of the biggest spenders on AI data centers, said at its investor day on Wednesday that it will limit additional fundraising in the coming years to $20 billion, and will turn cash flow positive in the second half of next fiscal year.
Citizens的分析师在周四的一份报告中写道，这一公告“消除了投资者最大的担忧——即资助其庞大的人工智能基础设施建设将需要无休止地增加债务和股权发行。”随着投资者评估他们愿意承担多少风险以及以什么价格承担风险，注意力将从超级大公司的财报重新回到Anthropic身上。
Analysts at Citizens wrote in a Thursday report that the announcement "put the biggest investor fear to rest — that funding its enormous AI infrastructure buildout would require an open-ended increase in debt and equity issuance." Attention will now turn back from hyperscaler earnings to Anthropic, as investors assess how much risk they're willing to assume and at what price.
自SpaceX在6月份进行创纪录的发行以来，IPO市场基本上处于冻结状态。生物识别戒指制造商Oura、澳大利亚人工智能数据中心运营商Firmus以及SK海力士位于美国的Solidigm子公司最近都推迟或放弃了IPO计划。于9月份申请上市的新云服务商Nscale已经数周没有更新其招股说明书，软银的SB Energy也是如此。
The IPO market has largely been frozen since SpaceX's record offering in June. Biometric ring maker Oura, Australian AI data center operator Firmus and SK Hynix's U.S.-based Solidigm subsidiary have all recently postponed or abandoned plans to IPO. Nscale, a neocloud that filed to go public in September, hasn't updated its prospectus in weeks, nor has SoftBank's SB Energy.
谈到Anthropic时，纽曼表示，对一家可能具有“时代意义”的公司的FOMO（错失恐惧症）是真实的，且该招股说明书“非常令人印象深刻”，显示出1300%的年销售额增长率、900%的净收入留存率以及85%的隐含毛利率。
With Anthropic, Newman said the FOMO — fear of missing out — on a potentially "generational" company is real, and that the prospectus was "very impressive," showing 1,300% annual sales growth, 900% net revenue retention and an implied gross margin of 85%.
纽曼说：“Anthropic就是目前这个时点的IPO市场。我认为，公司如果真的想在这个时期上市，即使算不上愚蠢，也必须极其谨慎。”
"Anthropic is the IPO market at this point," Newman said. "I think companies would have to be extremely cautious, if not just foolish, to actually want to come out in this period."