
一个名为“我们的传统至关重要”的超级政治行动委员会于10月15日向联邦选举委员会注册。
A super PAC called Our Heritage Matters registered with the Federal Election Commission on Oct. 15.
五天后,它开始花钱支持第三方候选人并攻击共和党人。据CNBC对联邦选举委员会文件的分析,到10月29日,该组织已在10场众议院和参议院竞选中花费了约120万美元。选民目前仍无法看到是谁提供了资金。
Five days later, it began spending to boost third-party candidates and attack Republicans. By Oct. 29, the group had spent about $1.2 million across 10 House and Senate races, according to a CNBC analysis of FEC filings. What voters still cannot see is who supplied the money.
因为“我们的传统至关重要”在10月15日一个关键的竞选财务报告截止日期之后成立,其首份披露捐赠者的常规报告要等到12月3日才需提交,也就是大选日后一个月。
Because Our Heritage Matters formed after a key campaign finance reporting deadline on Oct. 15, its first regular report identifying its donors is not due until Dec. 3, a month after Election Day.
该组织是重塑中期选举的更广泛激增趋势的一个极端例子:后期成立的超级政治行动委员会,包括最新成立的“临时政治行动委员会”,在选民不知资金来源的情况下向竞选注资。
The group is an extreme example of a broader surge reshaping the midterm election: late-forming super PACs, including the latest-forming "pop-up PACs," pouring money into races before voters know where it came from.
联邦法律要求超级政治行动委员会和政治委员会根据距离大选日的远近,在24小时或48小时内报告大额独立支出,披露花费金额以及支持或反对的候选人。然而,其捐赠者则通过定期竞选财务报告以较低频率披露。
Federal law requires super PACs and political committees to report large independent expenditures within 24 or 48 hours depending on how close to Election Day the spending occurs, showing how much they spent and which candidates they supported or opposed. Their donors, however, are disclosed less frequently through periodic campaign finance reports.
而在2026年,创建新的最后时刻政治行动委员会的做法激增。两党都在使用这一策略,与共和党有关联的政治行动委员会支出约为与民主党有关联的政治行动委员会的两倍。
And in 2026, the practice of creating new, last-minute PACs has exploded. Both parties are using the tactic, with Republican-linked PACs spending about twice what those connected with Democrats have disbursed.
据CNBC分析,在大选日前最后10周内向联邦选举委员会注册的22个超级政治行动委员会,每个都在国会竞选中花费了至少100万美元。到10月29日,它们合计报告了约6.37亿美元的独立支出——约占本选举周期众议院和参议院竞选所有报告的独立支出的六分之一。
Twenty-two super PACs that registered with the FEC during the final 10 weeks before Election Day have each spent at least $1 million on congressional races, according to CNBC's analysis. Together, they had reported roughly $637 million in independent expenditures by Oct. 29 — about one-sixth of all independent spending reported in House and Senate races this election cycle.
百万美元级后期成立超级政治行动委员会的数量自2022年以来增加了两倍多,而其支出增长了近35倍。
The number of million-dollar late-forming super PACs has more than quadrupled since 2022, while their spending has grown nearly 35-fold.
根据CNBC的分析,在2022年中期选举的同一时间点,仅有五个可比团体总共花费了约1800万美元。2018年,三个团体花费了约1200万美元。总额甚至超过了过去两次大选,当时可比的晚成立超级政治行动委员会在2020年和2024年两次大选中,在国会竞选上的总支出均不足5000万美元,根据CNBC的分析。
At the same point in the 2022 midterms, just five comparable groups had spent about $18 million combined, according to CNBC's analysis. In 2018, three had spent about $12 million. The total has even eclipsed the past two presidential elections, when comparable late-forming super PACs spent less than $50 million combined on congressional races in both 2020 and 2024, according to CNBC's analysis.
“这样做的原因几乎完全是为了避免披露,哪怕只是暂时的,”研究竞选资金的西北大学普利兹克法学院教授迈克尔·康说。“很多时候,如果捐赠者身份被知晓,会削弱他们的事业。”CNBC的分析涵盖了在大选日前最后10周内成立、且截至10月29日已在众议院或参议院竞选中花费至少100万美元的超级政治行动委员会。支出包括常规联邦选举委员会(FEC)申报文件以及24小时和48小时报告,并已剔除重复项。晚成立超级政治行动委员会的一个显著特征是速度。
"The reason for this is almost entirely to avoid disclosure, even if just temporarily," said Michael Kang, a Northwestern Pritzker School of Law professor who studies campaign finance. "Many times, if the donors were known, then it would undercut their cause." CNBC's analysis includes super PACs formed in the final 10 weeks before Election Day that spent at least $1 million on House or Senate races by Oct. 29. Spending includes regular FEC filings and 24- and 48-hour reports, with duplicates removed. One of the defining features of late-forming super PACs is speed.
在CNBC分析的22个团体中,有18个在启动后30天内开始支出,且几乎所有团体都在提交首份显示资金来源的常规竞选财务报告之前就已开始支出。
Among the 22 groups in CNBC's analysis, 18 began spending within 30 days of launching, and almost all started spending before filing their first regular campaign finance report showing where their money came from.
“这种情况发生得更频繁了,他们花费更多资金这么做,因为这行之有效,而且他们得以逃避监管,”竞选法律中心联邦竞选资金改革主任索拉夫·戈什说。该组织是一个由前共和党籍联邦选举委员会主席创立的非党派非营利组织。
“It’s happening more often, and they’re spending more money doing it because it works, and they’re getting away with it,” said Saurav Ghosh, director of federal campaign finance reform at the Campaign Legal Center. The group is a nonpartisan nonprofit founded by a former Republican FEC chairman.
尽管起步较晚,但在CNBC 2026年统计窗口期内,这些团体在国会竞选中的独立支出占比超过22%,而在前两次中期选举的同一时间点,这一比例均不足2%。
Despite their late start, the groups accounted for more than 22% of independent expenditures in congressional races during CNBC's 2026 window, up from less than 2% at the same point in each of the previous two midterms.
许多团体仅在纸面上是新成立的。CNBC发现,这22个团体中有9个与成熟的政治网络存在财务或组织联系。
Many are new only on paper. CNBC found financial or organizational ties between nine of the 22 groups and established political networks.
Lower Costs Now 于 9 月 10 日成立,并披露与 Future Forward PAC 有关联,后者是支持前副总统卡马拉·哈里斯 2024 年总统竞选的主要外部团体。十九天后,Lower Costs Now 开始在参议院竞选中进行支出。
Lower Costs Now, for example, formed on Sept. 10 and disclosed an affiliation with the Future Forward PAC, the main outside group that backed former Vice President Kamala Harris' 2024 presidential campaign. Nineteen days later, Lower Costs Now began spending in Senate races.
但直到 10 月 15 日,选民才通过其首份常规财务报告,对该组织的资金来源有了更完整的了解。根据联邦选举委员会(FEC)备案文件,致力于选举参议院民主党人的主要超级政治行动委员会 Senate Majority PAC 向该组织捐赠了 2300 万美元。
But voters did not get a fuller picture of its financing until Oct. 15, when its first regular financial report showed that Senate Majority PAC, the main super PAC working to elect Senate Democrats, had given the group $23 million, according to FEC filings.
据 CNBC 分析,截至周四,Lower Costs Now 已报告在八场参议院竞选中进行了约 7550 万美元的独立支出,涉及爱荷华州、得克萨斯州、堪萨斯州和俄亥俄州等州。共和党也采用了同样的策略。
By Thursday, Lower Costs Now had reported about $75.5 million in independent expenditures across eight Senate contests, including Iowa, Texas, Kansas and Ohio, according to CNBC's analysis. Republicans have used the same playbook.
No Going Back PAC 于 9 月 1 日成立,三天后开始支出。公开报道很快将其与 MAGA Inc. 联系起来,后者是唐纳德·特朗普总统的旗舰超级政治行动委员会。但其正式财务报告直到 10 月 20 日才出炉——距离开始支出已过去六周多。
No Going Back PAC formed Sept. 1 and began spending three days later. Public reporting soon linked it to MAGA Inc., President Donald Trump's marquee super PAC. But its formal financial report did not arrive until Oct. 20 — more than six weeks after the spending began.
到那时,根据 FEC 备案文件,No Going Back 已支出约 1.878 亿美元,文件显示 MAGA Inc. 向该组织提供了 2 亿美元资金。截至周四,根据 FEC 备案文件,该超级政治行动委员会支出约 2.422 亿美元。
By then, No Going Back had already spent roughly $187.8 million, according to FEC filings, which revealed that MAGA Inc. had supplied the group with $200 million. By Thursday, the super PAC had spent roughly $242.2 million, according to FEC filings.
“它们是一种旨在凭空出现、在选举中大笔花钱的工具,”Ghosh 说,“在选民弄清‘是谁在提供这些钱,他们的动机可能是什么’之前。”许多新团体的目标也非常精准。
“They are a vehicle designed to emerge from nowhere and spend a bunch of money on an election” before voters can learn “who’s supplying that money and what their motivations might be,” Ghosh said. Many of the new groups are also narrowly targeted.
CNBC 认定的 22 个百万级超级政治行动委员会中,有 14 个将所有资金都花在了单一国会竞选中。
Fourteen of the 22 million-dollar super PACs identified by CNBC spent all of their money in a single congressional contest.
以 The Maine Standard 为例。它于 9 月 11 日成立,五天后开始支出。据 FEC 备案文件,此后它已支出 820 万美元,全部用于反对民主党人特洛伊·杰克逊在缅因州的参议院竞选。
Take The Maine Standard. It formed Sept. 11 and began spending five days later. Since then, it has spent $8.2 million, all of it opposing Democrat Troy Jackson in Maine's Senate race, according to FEC filings.
“玉米穗党多数”几乎遵循相同的模式。它于9月10日成立,9月16日开始支出,并已在内布拉斯加州参议院选战中花费约710万美元,几乎全部用于反对独立候选人丹·奥斯本,依据联邦选举委员会(FEC)备案。奥斯本正与共和党现任参议员皮特·里克茨在一场激烈的竞争中角逐。
The Cornhusker Majority followed almost the same pattern. It formed Sept. 10, began spending Sept. 16 and has spent about $7.1 million in Nebraska's Senate race, almost all of it opposing independent Dan Osborn, according to FEC filings. Osborn is running against Republican incumbent Sen. Pete Ricketts in a tight race.
这两个组织之间的关联直到10月15日才出现在它们的常规财务报告中:两者均由参议院领袖基金(Senate Leadership Fund)——共和党主要的参议院超级政治行动委员会——提供资金。
The connection between the two groups did not appear in their regular financial reports until Oct. 15: Both were financed by Senate Leadership Fund, the GOP's main Senate super PAC.
在民主党方面,“德州永远”于9月24日成立,并在五天后开始支出,依据FEC备案。到本周四,它已支出约2750万美元,以帮助民主党德州参议院提名人詹姆斯·塔拉里科,依据FEC数据。然而,与其他一些临时组织不同的是,它的首次FEC备案将参议院多数政治行动委员会(Senate Majority PAC)列为附属机构。
On the Democratic side, Texas Forever launched Sept. 24 and began spending five days later, according to FEC filings. By Thursday, it had spent about $27.5 million to help Democratic Texas Senate nominee James Talarico, according to the FEC. Unlike some other pop-up groups, however, its initial FEC filing identified the Senate Majority PAC as an affiliate.
OpenSecrets(一个非党派非营利组织,专门追踪此类支出)的执行主任希拉里·布拉塞斯说:“本地品牌的政治行动委员会并不一定能隐藏资金来源,但会使整体图景碎片化。选民看到的不是一个在全国花费数千万美元的全国性组织,而是一系列在各场选举中运作的不同团体。”
"A locally branded PAC doesn't necessarily hide where the money comes from, but it fragments the picture. Instead of seeing one national organization spending tens of millions of dollars across the country, voters see a series of different groups operating race by race," said Hilary Braseth, executive director of OpenSecrets, a nonpartisan nonprofit that tracks such spending.
但即便识别出临时政治行动委员会背后的全国性组织,仍可能留下另一层资金链未被揭示。
But even identifying the national group behind a pop-up PAC can still leave another layer of the money trail hidden.
德州政治行动委员会于8月28日成立,并很快开始为共和党人肯·帕克森在德州参议院选战中提供资金。资金通过参议院领袖基金流转,但埃隆·马斯克的角色直到10月12日才公开,距支出开始已超过一个月。
Texas PAC formed Aug. 28 and soon began spending to help Republican Ken Paxton in Texas' Senate race. The money flowed through the SLF, but Elon Musk's role was not public until Oct. 12, more than a month after the spending began.
10月15日的FEC备案显示,马斯克向参议院领袖基金捐赠了1.58亿美元,分两笔捐献,随后该组织在每笔捐赠后的次日向德州政治行动委员会转移等额资金。
On Oct. 15, FEC filings showed Musk had given the SLF $158 million in two contributions, with the group transferring matching amounts to Texas PAC the day after each donation.
截至10月29日,德州政治行动委员会在该选战中已支出约1.816亿美元,依据FEC备案,这使其成为CNBC确认的最大后期成立的超级政治行动委员会之一。
By Oct. 29, Texas PAC had spent about $181.6 million in the race, according to FEC filings, making it one of the largest late-forming super PACs CNBC identified.
得克萨斯州政治行动委员会和“不退缩”这两个组织合计占据了这22个百万美元级别团体总支出的约三分之二。但这股激增的范围远不止这两大巨头:即便将它们剔除在外,其余团体的支出也比2022年同期成立较晚的同类超级政治行动委员会高出近12倍。
Together, Texas PAC and No Going Back accounted for roughly two-thirds of all spending by the 22 million-dollar groups. But the surge was much broader than those two giants: Even excluding them, the remaining groups spent nearly 12 times as much as comparable late-forming super PACs did at the same point in 2022.
康说:“今年的增长非常巨大。也许你不想在这次选举中出名,或者想在一段时间内隐藏起来,因为你可能不受欢迎,就像现在的人工智能一样,但你大概想为体制内的参与者建立声誉。”
"The growth is huge this year," Kang said. "Maybe you don’t want to be known this election, or want to hide away for a period while you might be unpopular, like AI is right now, but you kind of want to build a reputation for the players inside the system."