备受关注的以色列选举没有产生明确的赢家。选民没有给予总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡多数席位，但也没有拒绝他。随着内塔尼亚胡的前途悬而未决，这一不确定局面为持续数周的政治谈判打开了大门。在10月7日哈马斯袭击以及随后加沙、黎巴嫩和伊朗的战争中领导以色列的内塔尼亚胡，下一步将何去何从？更重要的是，这对印度意味着什么？这正是我们今天的报道要解读的内容。
The keenly watched Israeli elections didn't throw up a clear winner. The voters did not give Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a majority. Yet, they did not reject him either. The uncertainty has now thrown the door open to weeks of political negotiations as Netanyahu's future hangs in the balance. What lies ahead for Netanyahu, who has steered Israel amid the October 7 Hamas attack and the subsequent wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran? More importantly, what does it mean for India? This is what our report will decode today.
在深入讨论之前，先来看看数字。内塔尼亚胡领导的利库德右翼阵营在120席的以色列议会中赢得最多席位（53席），距离组建下届政府所需的61席还差8席。由前军方首领加迪·艾森科特领导的反对派阵营获得48席。阿拉伯政党则赢得了创纪录的19席。特拉维夫的一块巨大广告牌上展示着内塔尼亚胡和特朗普的合影阿拉伯政党成为造王者本质上，如果没有阿拉伯政党的支持，上述两个阵营都无法组建政府，这有可能使阿拉伯政党成为造王者。这就是事情变得有趣的地方。
Before we go any further, here is a look at the numbers. Netanyahu's Likud-led right-wing bloc won the most number of seats (53) in the 120-member Knesset. It is eight short of the 61 needed to form the next government. The opposition bloc, led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, has secured 48 seats. Arab-led parties won a record 19 seats.A huge billboard featuring Netanyahu and Trump in Tel AvivARAB PARTIES EMERGE KINGMAKEREssentially, neither of the blocs could form a government without the support of the Arab parties, potentially making them kingmakers. This is where things get interesting.
内塔尼亚胡和艾森科特此前都排除了与两个阿拉伯主导的阵营——联合名单和拉姆党——进行任何合作的方案。不过，艾森科特最近缓和了立场，暗示他愿意在附加条件的情况下与阿拉伯政党携手合作。
Both Netanyahu and Eisenkot have previously ruled out any tie-ups with the two Arab-led formations - The Joint List and the Ra'am. However, Eisenkot has softened his stance recently, suggesting he was open to joining forces with the Arab parties with conditions.
目前有三种可能的前景：一是由艾森科特领导并得到阿拉伯政党支持的政府，二是涉及内塔尼亚胡和艾森科特的民族团结政府，三是涉及内塔尼亚胡和从艾森科特阵营中倒戈者的联合政府。
As of now, there are three possible options: an Eisenkot-led government backed by Arab parties, a national unity government involving Netanyahu and Eisenkot, and a coalition involving Netanyahu and defectors from Eisenkot's bloc.
如果第一种情况成为现实，那对内塔尼亚胡来说将是灾难性的。他不仅面临长期以来的腐败指控，而且一个没有内塔尼亚胡的政府也几乎肯定会就与2023年10月7日哈马斯发动的毁灭性袭击有关的所谓安全漏洞展开正式调查。但这是一个很大的“如果”。
If the first option materialises, it will be disastrous for Netanyahu. Not only does he face long-running corruption charges, but a Netanyahu-mukt government will also almost certainly launch a formal probe into alleged security lapses surrounding the devastating Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023. But that's a big if.
内塔尼亚胡被认为是政治操纵的大师，没人能预料他这次会从帽子里掏出什么“兔子”。目前，所有目光都聚焦在以色列总统以撒·赫尔佐格身上。他将首先召集最大党派的领袖尝试组建新政府——在本案中即是内塔尼亚胡。
Netanyahu is known to be a master of political manipulation, and no one can fathom what rabbit he may pull out of his hat this time. For now, all eyes will be on Israeli President Isaac Herzog. He will first call the leader of the largest party to try to form the new government - in this case, Netanyahu.
按照程序，内塔尼亚胡有最长42天的时间尝试组建政府。如果他失败，执棒将交给第二大党派的领袖，该领袖将获准28天。如果仍未成功，将再给第三位候选人14天的期限。如果仍未形成政府，将重新举行选举。可能的情景有哪些？情景一最直接的解决方案是加迪·埃森科特与阿拉伯主导的党派联手。这样在议会（克内塞特）中的席位将达到67席，形成舒适的多数。然而，这种联盟仍不太可能，因为埃森科特及其盟友在选举前曾多次拒绝此类做法。
As per protocol, Netanyahu will have up to 42 days to try to form the government. If he fails, the baton will be passed on to the leader of the second-largest party, who will be given 28 days. If unsuccessful, a period of 14 days is granted to a third candidate. If no government has been formed, fresh elections will be called. WHAT ARE THE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS?SCENARIO 1The most straightforward solution will be Gadi Eisenkot joining forces with the Arab-led parties. It will take their numbers to 67 in the Knesset - a comfortable majority. However, such a coalition remains unlikely because Eisenkot and his allies have repeatedly rejected such a move before the elections.
双方在哈马斯及加沙战争问题上立场不同。一些阿拉伯党派拒绝认可消灭哈马斯的军事目标，或将其定性为恐怖组织。前以色列国防军参谋长埃森科特对伊朗和哈马斯采取强硬立场，并且反对巴勒斯坦建国。他与内塔尼亚胡的分歧主要体现在国内议题上，如对极端正统犹太人免除兵役的政策。
Both have differing positions on Hamas and the war in Gaza. Some Arab parties have refused to endorse the military goal of eliminating Hamas, or condemn it as a terrorist organisation.A former IDF chief, Eisenkot, has taken a hard line on Iran and Hamas. He also opposes Palestinian statehood. His differences with Netanyahu are essentially on domestic issues like exemptions from military service for ultra-Orthodox Jews.
内塔尼亚胡曾表示，任何此类联盟都将背叛以色列的犹太身份，并构成国家安全威胁，这进一步加大了对埃森科特的压力。
Netanyahu has said any such alliance would be a betrayal of Israel's Jewish identity and a national security threat, raising the pressure on Eisenkot.
阿拉伯主导的党派代表以色列的巴勒斯坦公民。他们占人口的20%，与约旦河西岸和加沙的巴勒斯坦人关系密切。迄今为止，仅在2021年有一次阿拉伯党加入执政联盟。
The Arab-led parties represent the Palestinian citizens of Israel. They make up 20% of the population and have close ties to Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza. Only once has an Arab party joined a governing coalition (in 2021).
那届政府仅维持了约18个月。加迪·艾森科特（中）抵达特拉维夫向支持者发表讲话情景二第二种可能是组建团结政府，内塔尼亚胡与艾森科特携手合作，双方各让一步。这可能要求内塔尼亚胡放弃部分极右翼盟友，这些盟友曾在他与伊朗、真主党的冲突中坚定站在他一边。然而，艾森科特曾多次承诺不在内塔尼亚胡领导的政府中任职。
That government only lasted around 18 months. Gadi Eisenkot (C) arrives to address his supporters in Tel AvivSCENARIO 2The second possibility is a unity government where Netanyahu and Eisenkot join hands with a bit of give-and-take. It may require Netanyahu to let go of some of his far-right allies who stood by him amid the conflicts with Iran and Hezbollah. However, Eisenkot has repeatedly pledged not to serve in a government led by Netanyahu.
他将哈马斯袭击事件中的安全失误归咎于内塔尼亚胡，并指责他破坏以色列的民主制度。关键在于，两位领导人还必须解决由谁担任总理的问题。情景三如果上述方案均行不通，则可能出现拉拢倒戈者的第三种情景。内塔尼亚胡可能试图拉拢其前盟友、右翼政党领袖纳夫塔利·贝内特或阿维格多·利伯曼脱离艾森科特阵营。
He has held him responsible for the security failures over the Hamas attack and accused him of undermining Israel's democratic institutions. Crucially, the two leaders will also have to figure out who will serve as prime minister.SCENARIO 3If nothing works out, poach defectors. That's what a third scenario may look like. Netanyahu may try to lure some of his former allies, like right-wing party leaders Naftali Bennett or Avigdor Lieberman, from the Eisenkot bloc.
不过，这对艾森科特未必奏效。多年来，内塔尼亚胡的极右翼和超正统派盟友始终对他保持高度忠诚。重新大选如果一切努力均告失败，以色列明年大概率将举行重新大选。这对内塔尼亚胡未必是坏事，因为他将继续担任看守总理直到那时。作为看守总理，内塔尼亚胡将掌握安全相关决策权。舆论普遍认为，在美国下周中期选举后，美以将大规模恢复针对伊朗的军事作战行动。
It may not work out for Eisenkot, though. Netanyahu's far-right and ultra-Orthodox allies have been fiercely loyal to him over the years.FRESH POLLSIf nothing works out, Israel is likely to have fresh elections next year. It won't be a bad option for Netanyahu as he will remain the caretaker PM until then. As caretaker PM, Netanyahu will take security-related calls. There is a strong buzz of the US and Israel resuming military combat operations against Iran on a much larger scale after the American midterm elections next week.
与伊朗的新一轮冲突升级可能对内塔尼亚胡有利。总理纳伦德拉·莫迪与内塔尼亚胡私交甚笃（印度通讯社）以色列大选结果将如何影响印度？
A fresh flare-up with Iran might work to Netanyahu's advantage. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Netanyahu share a personal rapport (PTI)HOW ISRAEL ELECTION RESULTS MAY AFFECT INDIA?
近年来，印以关系日益牢固。总理纳伦德拉·莫迪与内塔尼亚胡的友好私交广为人知。
Over the past few years, India-Israel ties have become more ironclad. The bonhomie and personal rapport between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Netanyahu are well known.
谁能忘记2017年莫迪总理访问以色列期间，他与内塔尼亚胡在奥尔加海滩赤脚漫步的画面？两位领导人的友好关系确保了印以关系不再仅仅是购买武器。两国在技术、网络安全、人工智能、太空、农业和贸易领域的合作不断深化。
Who can forget the visuals of Modi and Netanyahu strolling barefoot at the Olga beach during the Prime Minister's visit to Israel in 2017? The camaraderie between the leaders has ensured that the India-Israel relationship isn't just about buying weapons anymore. Both countries have deepened cooperation in technology, cybersecurity, AI, space, agriculture and trade.
2026年2月莫迪总理访问以色列期间，双边关系升级为“特别战略伙伴关系”。
The ties were elevated to a 'special strategic partnership' during PM Modi's February 2026 visit to Israel.
然而，国防仍然是印以关系的最大支柱。事实上，印度占以色列武器出口总额的40%。印度严重依赖以色列的导弹、防空系统、监视设备、无人机以及轻小型武器。
However, defence remains the biggest pillar of India-Israel ties. India, in fact, accounts for 40% of Israel's total arms exports. India relies heavily on Israeli missiles, air defence systems, surveillance equipment, drones and small arms and weapons.
未来，重点可能会转向联合生产和技术共享，以配合印度的“自力更生”推动。如果内塔尼亚胡未能成为总理，新领导人对待印度的态度仍有待观察。
Going forward, the focus is likely to shift towards joint production and technology sharing in line with India's Atmanirbhar push. If Netanyahu fails to become the PM, the approach of the new leader towards India remains to be seen.
然而，以色列领导层的更迭不太可能破坏与印度的关系。两国是强有力的战略盟友。在内塔尼亚胡的前任纳夫塔利·贝内特和亚伊尔·拉皮德执政期间，关系依然保持强劲。
However, a change in leadership in Israel is unlikely to disrupt ties with India. The countries are strong strategic allies. The relationship continued to remain strong under Netanyahu's predecessors, Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid.
因此，无论哪位领导人上台，强有力的战略和国防伙伴关系预计将继续下去。
Thus, the strong strategic and defence partnership is expected to continue, whichever leader comes to power.- Ends