随着以色列大选预计结果于周二晚间公布，特拉维夫的气氛异常安静。过去三年里，哈比马广场曾是喧嚣的反政府抗议活动的举办地，如今仅有寥寥数人现身。有人挥舞着染成粉色的以色列国旗，以示抵抗；也有人茫然四顾。似乎没人知道该欢庆还是痛哭。
As the projected results of Israel’s elections were announced on Tuesday night, the atmosphere in Tel Aviv was oddly quiet. In Habima Square, which has hosted raucous anti-government protests in the past three years, only a trickle of people showed up. Some waved the Israeli flag, colored pink to signify resistance; others walked around in a daze. No one seemed to know whether to celebrate or weep.
预计结果显示：以色列民众中的绝大多数否决了总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡的政府。他由极右翼和极端正统派合作伙伴组成的联盟竞选时拥有 120 个席位中的 68 个；预计将仅剩 53 个席位——比内塔尼亚胡组建多数派政府所需的席位少 8 个。
Here’s what the results showed: A decisive majority of Israelis rejected the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. His coalition of far-right and ultra-Orthodox partners went into the election with sixty-eight seats, out of a hundred and twenty; it is projected to emerge with fifty-three—eight seats short of what Netanyahu needs to form a majority government.
以色列巴勒斯坦公民以空前的数量投票，投票率估计高达 80%。以阿拉伯人为主的政党预计在议会（Knesset）中的席位将从 10 个几乎翻倍至 19 个。不难想象，当前的政治氛围本会劝阻巴勒斯坦裔以色列人投票：国家安全部长伊塔马尔·本-格维尔公开将他们视为敌人；犹太定居者帮派在约旦河西岸逍遥法外；加沙几乎被彻底摧毁。然而，他们的愤怒似乎成了非同寻常的动员力量。据报道，许多人之所以受鼓舞去投票，是因为本-格维尔声称将在下届政府中要求掌管国防部。
Palestinian citizens of Israel voted in unprecedented numbers, with a turnout rate estimated as high as eighty per cent. Predominantly Arab parties are projected to have almost doubled their representation in the Knesset, from ten to nineteen seats. It’s not hard to imagine that the current political climate would discourage Palestinian Israelis from voting: the national-security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, openly regards them as enemies; gangs of Jewish settlers act with impunity in the West Bank; Gaza has been almost completely destroyed. Instead, their outrage seemed to have served as an extraordinary mobilizer. Many of them were reportedly inspired to vote by Ben-Gvir’s claim that he would demand the defense ministry in the next government.
但结果也显示，内塔尼亚胡的利库德集团保持了其主导地位。他的主要挑战者加迪·艾森科特未能达到大多数民调预测的成绩。艾森科特的政党“亚沙尔”预计将获得 21 个席位——对于一个新党来说成绩不错，但绝算不上席卷之势。
But the results also show that Netanyahu’s Likud Party maintained its dominance. His main challenger, Gadi Eisenkot, fell short of the results that most polls predicted. Eisenkot’s party, Yashar, is projected to have twenty-one seats—a decent showing for a new party, but not a groundswell by any measure.
如果将反内塔尼亚胡阵营中的犹太政党和阿拉伯政党的得票相加，它们获得的选票更多。但亲内塔尼亚胡阵营赢得了更多犹太以色列人的选票。许多人将把这视为本次选举的底线：只有“犹太复国主义多数”才算数。（他们的意思是犹太人多数。极端正统派政党公开反犹太复国主义。）艾森科特本人似乎也采用了类似的框架，在首批出口民调公布时表示：“内塔尼亚胡今晚发现自己面临一个更大、更强的犹太复国主义多数。”
If you combine the Jewish parties and the Arab parties in the anti-Netanyahu bloc, they secured more votes. But the pro-Netanyahu bloc won more votes from Jewish Israelis. Many will view this as the election’s bottom line: that a “Zionist majority” is the only one that counts. (What they mean is a Jewish majority. The ultra-Orthodox parties are openly anti-Zionist.) Eisenkot himself seems to have adopted a similar framework when the exit polls were first released. “Netanyahu finds himself tonight facing a larger and stronger Zionist majority,” he said.
左倾报纸《国土报》的诺亚·兰道写道：“令人失望，但并不意外”，看到艾森科特“将选举结果框架化为由他领导的政府拥有‘犹太复国主义’多数，并精准地——我是指精准地——掉进了内塔尼亚胡为他设下的陷阱。”根据以色列选举制度，下一步是由该国总统伊萨克·赫尔佐格询问各党领袖推荐哪位候选人担任总理。该候选人随后有大约一个月的时间组建多数派。
“It is disappointing, but comes as no surprise,” Noa Landau wrote in the left-leaning newspaper , to see how Eisenkot “framed the election results in the form of a ‘Zionist’ majority for a government led by him and fell precisely—and I mean, precisely––into the trap Netanyahu laid for him.”Under the Israeli electoral system, the next step is for the country’s President, Isaac Herzog, to ask party leaders which candidate they recommend for Prime Minister. That candidate then has roughly a month to form a majority.
就目前形势而言，尚不清楚这一任务将落在作为最大党派领袖的内塔尼亚胡身上，还是落在可能成为最大党派集团领袖的艾森科特身上。但艾森科特组建联合政府需要阿拉伯政党的支持，他在竞选期间对于是否愿意这样做含糊其辞；他的一些反对派伙伴则彻底拒绝了这一想法。
As things stand, it is unclear whether that task will fall to Netanyahu, the leader of the largest party, or Eisenkot, who could become the leader of the largest of parties. But Eisenkot would need support from Arab parties to form a coalition, and he spent his campaign equivocating on whether he would be willing to do so; some of his partners in the opposition have flatly rejected the idea.
这样一来，就只剩下内塔尼亚胡了。大选前的几天里，他的竞选策略似乎是靠恐吓以色列民众来投票支持他。在多次采访中，内塔尼亚胡承认，美国每年向以色列提供的数十亿美元防务援助“已经结束”。他还表示，重创性的国际制裁不可避免，因此以色列应做好准备，通过转向加密货币来“规避”这些制裁。（他似乎认为，其政府扩大约旦河西岸犹太定居点的政策是不可逆转的——该政策已经引发了11个欧洲国家的制裁。）
That leaves Netanyahu. His campaign strategy in the days before the election seemed to rely on scaring the Israeli public into voting for him. In a series of interviews, Netanyahu acknowledged that the multi-billion-dollar annual defense package that the U.S. gives Israel “is over.”He added that crippling international sanctions were inevitable, so the country should be prepared to “circumvent” them by turning to cryptocurrency. (He seemed to regard his government’s policy of expanding Jewish settlements in the West Bank, which has already triggered sanctions from eleven European countries, as irreversible.)
这些言论令市场感到不安，也让专家们哗然。一份由100多名以色列经济学家签署的措辞尖锐的信中写道：“他能为以色列经济提供的，只是一种在犯罪组织中常见的怪异解决方案。”
The comments rattled markets and scandalized experts. “All he has to offer the Israeli economy is a bizarre solution that is common among criminal organizations,” a scathing letter signed by more than a hundred Israeli economists concluded.
内塔尼亚胡现在将竭尽全力挖走反对党的议员，以拼凑出多数席位。这并不容易。尽管一些反对党领袖誓言不与阿拉伯政党组成执政联盟，但所有反对党领袖都誓言不加入由内塔尼亚胡领导的执政联盟。这正是许多以色列人在大选前所担心的僵局。这意味着，以色列现在将面临数周或数月的联盟角力、神经紧绷和激烈内斗——最终却可能以同样的僵局告终。
Netanyahu will now do everything in his power to peel lawmakers away from the opposition to cobble together a majority. It won’t be easy. Although some opposition leaders vowed not to sit in a coalition with Arab parties, of them vowed not to join one headed by Netanyahu. This is the deadlock that many Israelis feared going into the election. It means that the country will now face weeks or months of coalition wrangling, of raw nerves and bitter infighting—only to risk ending up in the same impasse.
一旦谈判耗尽，将出现两种可能的情形。以色列国内和国外都将施加巨大压力，要求组建某种形式的民族团结政府，由内塔尼亚胡和艾森科特共同领导。特朗普也暗示了这一点，当时未具名的美国消息人士告诉以色列媒体，他希望“确保”下届政府不包含本-格维尔。周三，以色列热门新闻网站列出了此类政府的一种可能框架。
Once those negotiations are exhausted, there are two likely scenarios. There will be enormous pressure from within Israel and from abroad to form some sort of national-unity government, headed by both Netanyahu and Eisenkot. Trump indicated as much, when unnamed U.S. sources told Israeli media that he wants to “make sure” that the next government does not include Ben-Gvir. On Wednesday, the popular Israeli news site laid out a possible framework for such a government.
该政府将包括内塔尼亚胡、艾森科特和纳夫塔利·贝内特——这位前总理现为在野党领袖。文章建议三人轮流担任总理，以符合“特朗普的愿景”。然而对内塔尼亚胡而言，与长期的极端正统派合作伙伴决裂可能预示着其政治生涯的终结开始。（上一次他背弃他们是在2013年，他的联合政府不到两年就分裂了。）艾森科特和贝内特似乎也不可能在短期内同意组建团结政府。
It would include Netanyahu, Eisenkot, and Naftali Bennett—a former Prime Minister who is now in the opposition. The article suggested that the three would each take a turn serving as Prime Minister, in alignment with “Trump’s vision.”For Netanyahu, though, breaking away from his longtime ultra-Orthodox partners could spell the beginning of his political end. (The last time he turned his back on them, in 2013, his coalition splintered after less than two years.) Eisenkot and Bennett also seem unlikely to agree to a unity government anytime soon.
他们不仅曾向选民承诺不会与内塔尼亚胡联手——他们个人也认为内塔尼亚胡对民主构成实实在在的危险。“我了解内塔尼亚胡，”艾森科特最近在特拉维夫的一次竞选集会上说。“为留任，他不择手段。”贝内特则称内塔尼亚胡助手涉嫌为卡塔尔充当影响力代理人，是该国历史上“最严重的叛国行为”。不过，如果以色列似乎即将与伊朗发生另一轮升级，他们可能会重新考虑。
Not only did they promise voters that they would not join forces with Netanyahu—they also personally believe that he represents an active danger to democracy. “I know Netanyahu,” Eisenkot said on a recent campaign stop, in Tel Aviv. “He’ll stop at nothing” to remain in power. Bennett, for his part, has called Netanyahu’s aides’ alleged work as influence agents for Qatar the “most serious act of treason” in the country’s history. Yet they might reconsider if Israel seemed headed toward another imminent escalation with Iran.
周三，《纽约时报》报道称，美国和以色列正在为美国中期选举后可能对伊朗发动的一轮打击做准备。
On Wednesday, the reported that the U.S. and Israel were preparing for a possible round of strikes on Iran after the American midterms.
另一种情况是，结果将极不明朗，以至于几个月后以色列人将再次被送回投票站。这并非首次。2019年至2021年间，短短两年内举行了四轮选举，最终宣誓就职的政府在十八个月内解散。
The other scenario is that the results will be so inconclusive that, in a few months, Israelis will be sent to the ballot box again. It wouldn’t be the first time. Between 2019 and 2021, there were four rounds of elections in just two years, and the government that was ultimately sworn in dissolved within eighteen months.
内塔尼亚胡很可能指望重新选举。他知道，居住在国外的以色列人——据估计本周选举中有六万七千人前来投票——不大可能在短短几个月内再跑一趟。如果阿拉伯裔以色列人得出结论，认为他们创纪录的投票率并未改善自身地位，他们也不大可能重复那样的投票热情。在这种情况下，内塔尼亚胡不仅会以看守政府领导人的身份留任；他还可能在下一次选举中以更大优势获胜，并巩固其支持基础。
Netanyahu may well be counting on a repeat election. He knows that Israelis living abroad, an estimated sixty-seven thousand of whom showed up to vote in this week’s elections, are unlikely to make another trip in a few short months. And Arab Israelis are unlikely to repeat their historic turnout if they conclude that it did nothing to improve their standing. In that scenario, Netanyahu would not only stay in office, as the leader of a caretaker government; he could emerge from the next election with a wider lead and a solidified base of support.
艾森科特显然意识到了这一风险。周三早些时候，他说，在“投票率如此之高”的选举后，再呼吁重选将是“一个错误”。
Eisenkot is clearly aware of that risk. Early on Wednesday, he said that, after an election “with such high turnout,” it would be “a mistake” to call another.
因此，在反对派圈子和网络论坛上，一种简单的论点开始聚集势头。反内塔尼亚胡阵营连同阿拉伯政党，将在下届议会中拥有决定性多数。为什么不利用它？
And so, in opposition circles and in online forums, momentum began gathering around a simple argument. The anti-Netanyahu bloc, along with the Arab parties, will have a decisive majority in the next parliament. Why not use it?
“我们无法再接受内塔尼亚胡在犹太选票和阿拉伯选票之间制造的种族主义分裂，”民主党领袖亚伊尔·戈兰在计票结果陆续传出时写道。戈兰是唯一一位表示乐意与阿拉伯政党组建联合政府的犹太裔党魁。他补充道：“在泰拉投票的以色列公民的选票——泰拉是一座阿拉伯城市——与在吉瓦特·舍穆埃尔投票的以色列公民的选票——吉瓦特·舍穆埃尔是一座犹太城市——价值完全相同。”
“We can no longer accept Netanyahu’s racist division between Jewish votes and Arab votes,” Yair Golan, who heads a left-wing opposition party called the Democrats, wrote as results filtered in. Golan is the only Jewish party leader who had stated that he would happily join a coalition with an Arab party. He added, “The vote of an Israeli citizen voting in Tira”—an Arab city—“is worth exactly the same as that of an Israeli citizen voting in Givat Shmuel,” a Jewish city.
历史上，不仅阿拉伯政党被排除在联合政府谈判之外，它们自身也拒绝参与，以免被视为在协助犹太复国主义事业。这种情况在2021年发生了改变，当时伊斯兰主义政党拉姆党领袖曼苏尔·阿巴斯加入了贝内特短暂执政的政府。
Historically, it’s not only that Arab parties were excluded from coalition negotiations. They themselves refused to participate, so as not to be seen as aiding the Zionist project. That changed in 2021, when Mansour Abbas, the head of an Islamist party called Ra’am, joined Bennett’s short-lived government.
右翼极具影响力的第12频道政治评论员阿米特·塞加尔周二试图淡化阿拉伯选民的选举潜力。“以色列政府不会唱‘’，”他说，指的是埃及国歌，据报道一个以阿拉伯人为主的联盟在计票结果公布时曾唱过这首歌。
Amit Segal, a political commentator for Channel 12 who is deeply influential on the right, on Tuesday tried to brush off Arab voters’ electoral potential. “The Israeli government will not sing ‘,’ ” he said, referring to the Egyptian national anthem, which one Arab-majority alliance had reportedly sung as returns came in.
阿拉伯裔以色列人的选票主要分流给两个政党：预计将获得12个席位的多派系联盟“联合名单”，以及预计将获得7个席位的拉姆党。阿巴斯已证明愿意成为联合政府的积极成员。联合名单领袖优素福·贾巴林周三表达了同样的意愿。贾巴林表示，他准备好“利用我们的政治力量推进我们所信奉的价值观”。他向以色列民众提出了一个鲜明的选择。
The Arab Israeli vote is largely divided between two parties: the Joint List, an alliance of factions which is projected to have twelve seats, and Ra’am, which is projected to have seven. Abbas had already proved willing to be an active member in a coalition government. Yousef Jabareen, the leader of the Joint List, expressed the same willingness on Wednesday. Jabareen said that he was prepared to “leverage our political power to advance the values we believe in.”He put forth a stark choice before the Israeli people.
“要么是持续的种族主义、持续的排斥和持续的至上主义，要么是真正的犹太-阿拉伯伙伴关系，”他说。“我们将准备好铺平道路，推翻内塔尼亚胡、本-格维尔和斯莫特里奇的政府——把他们送回家。”
“It is either continued racism, continued exclusion, and continued supremacy, or genuine Jewish-Arab partnership,” he said. “We will be ready to pave the way to topple the government of Netanyahu, Ben-Gvir, and Smotrich—and send them home.”