卡普罗、维尼修斯·安德拉德和若热利娜·多·罗萨里奥 阿根廷财政部长最近在一年一度的国际会议上发出了一些警示之言，当时大家普遍对新兴市场的韧性感到兴奋。在巴西市场遭遇大幅抛售前仅一周多一点时间，路易斯·卡普托警告说：“仅仅一个国家——一个重要国家——陷入麻烦，就可能产生系统性风险并影响我们所有人。”
Capurro, Vinícius Andrade and Jorgelina do Rosario Argentina’s finance minister had some words of caution at an annual international confab recently amid broad enthusiasm over the resilience of emerging markets. Speaking little more than a week before a rout in Brazil’s markets, Luis Caputo warned, “Just one country — one important country — getting into trouble could probably generate a systemic risk and affect all of us.”
虽然10月25日巴西大选的意外结果是否构成“麻烦”尚有争议，但拉美最大经济体市场的暴跌，为新兴市场资产类别的稳固程度提供了一次检验。到目前为止，传染效应有限。即使周一巴西资产暴跌，包括墨西哥和智利比索在内的货币仍兑美元上涨，而巴西雷亚尔暴跌9%。哥伦比亚售出了创纪录规模的一批美元债券。
While it’s debatable whether the surprise Oct. 25 Brazilian election result constitutes “trouble,” tumbling markets in Latin America’s biggest economy offered a test of just how solid the emerging market asset class is. So far, contagion has been limited. Even as Brazil’s assets tumbled Monday, currencies including Mexico’s and Chile’s pesos notched gains against the dollar amid a 9% plunge in Brazil’s real. Colombia sold a record batch of dollar debt.
部分韧性反映了发展中国家政策制定者为驯服通胀、避免不可持续的借贷水平所做的努力。另一个受到关注的因素是：发达国家资产不再拥有过去那种被视为拥有巨大安全边际的认知。
Part of the resilience reflects work by developing nation policymakers to tame inflation and avoid unsustainable levels of borrowing. Another element gaining attention: developed nation assets don’t have the same perception of a giant margin of safety that they used to.
在10月中旬于曼谷举行的国际货币基金组织和世界银行年会上——卡普托在那里对记者说，“允许我对新兴时代持一点怀疑态度”——围绕一名陷入困境的借款人的即时讨论，涉及的不是一个穷国，而是一个富国：法国。
At the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Bangkok in mid-October — where Caputo told reporters, “allow me to be a bit skeptical” about the new emerging era — the immediate discussions around a troubled borrower were tied not to a poor nation but to a rich one: France.
“新兴市场不再被视为烂摊子，”RBC BlueBay资产管理公司高级新兴市场主权策略师蒂莫西·阿什（Timothy Ash）表示，他出席了在曼谷举行的国际货币基金组织和世界银行会议。“现在许多发达市场正在争夺这个标签。”在曼谷会议召开前发生的法国主权债务9月份大幅抛售，并非发达国家的困境首次引起政策制定者的关注。2022年，在国际货币基金组织和世界银行年会召开前夕，英国资产因对不可持续的财政政策的担忧而暴跌。
“Emerging markets are no longer seen as the basket case,” said Timothy Ash, senior emerging markets sovereign strategist at RBC BlueBay Asset Management, who attended the IMF-World Bank meetings in Bangkok. “Many developed markets now compete for that label.”The sharp September selloff in France’s sovereign debt that preceded the Bangkok gathering wasn’t the first time that a developed country’s woes captured policymakers’ attention. In 2022, it was Britain’s assets that were tumbling over concerns about unsustainable fiscal policies, just ahead of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual confab.
时任巴西央行行长的罗伯托·坎波斯·内托（Roberto Campos Neto）当时甚至表示，英国危机让他想起了自己作为新兴市场政策制定者所面临的挑战。
Brazil’s then-central bank Governor Roberto Campos Neto even said at the time the UK crisis reminded him of his own challenges as a policymaker in an emerging market.
梵蒂克（VanEck）新兴市场首席经济学家娜塔莉亚·古鲁希娜（Natalia Gurushina）回忆起近年来在另一次国际货币基金组织会议上流传的一个笑话，说该基金可能需要为最大的发达国家——美国——拟定一份援助方案——附带惯常的财政紧缩条款。
Natalia Gurushina, chief economist for emerging markets at VanEck, recalls a joke circulating at another IMF meeting in recent years about how the fund might need to compile an assistance package — with the usual fiscal-austerity provisions — for the largest advanced nation of them all: the US.
“听起来像个疯狂的提议，但这说明了一些问题——一些发达市场的避险地位开始受到质疑，”她说。
“It sounds like a crazy proposition, but it tells you something - the safe haven status of some developed markets is starting to be questioned,” she said.
在20世纪经历多次债务危机后，拉丁美洲、亚洲及其他地区的许多国家建立了货币和财政规则，旨在巩固物价稳定并节制借贷。当新冠疫情引发通胀压力飙升时，许多国家——从墨西哥、巴西到南非——都在美国联邦储备委员会之前加息。
Having gone through multiple debt crises in the 20th century, many nations in Latin America, Asia and elsewhere instituted monetary and fiscal rules aimed at cementing price stability and moderation in borrowing. When Covid triggered a surge in inflationary pressures, many — from Mexico and Brazil to South Africa — raised interest rates ahead of the US Federal Reserve.
“它们在抢在通胀上升前面方面要有效得多——而发达市场央行，尤其是美联储，则一直很谨慎，更倾向于维持政策不变，”法国兴业银行（Societe Generale SA）美洲研究主管苏巴德拉·拉贾帕（Subadra Rajappa）表示。
“They’ve been much, much more effective in getting ahead of the rise in inflation — whereas developed market central banks, especially the Fed, have been cautious and much more amenable to keeping policy on hold,” said Subadra Rajappa, head of research for the Americas at Societe Generale SA.
值得注意的是，新兴市场债券投资者仍要求比发达市场更高的溢价。以美元计价的新兴市场债券自2024年底以来为投资者带来了逾12%的回报，是美国国债回报的两倍多。另一项追踪发展中国家本币主权债务的指数上涨了近16%。
To be clear, investors in emerging-market bonds are still requiring premiums compared with developed markets. Those denominated in dollars have returned over 12% for investors since the end of 2024, more than double that for US Treasuries. A separate index tracking local-currency sovereign debt from developing nations has gained almost 16%.
但摩根大通编制的数据显示，投资者要求持有美元计价新兴市场主权债券而非美国国债所获得的额外收益率，接近近二十年来的最低水平。
But data compiled by JPMorgan Chase & Co. shows the extra yield demanded for dollar-denominated emerging market sovereign bonds rather than Treasuries is near the lowest in almost two decades.
而在本币债务方面，一些新兴国家的债券收益率甚至低于美国国债——尽管这使外国投资者面临汇率风险。
And in the case of local currency debt, some emerging nations’ bonds bear lower yields than Treasuries — though that exposes foreign investors to currency risk.
对新兴市场的政策制定者和投资者而言，感觉世界仿佛颠倒了。“如果新兴市场债券与美国国债之间的收益率差频繁出现负值，我不会感到惊讶，”古鲁希娜表示。
To policymakers and investors in emerging markets, it feels like the world is upside down. “It wouldn’t surprise me to see negative spreads between EM bonds and Treasuries become more common,” Gurushina said.
贝莱德全球固定收益首席投资官里克·里德是关注新兴市场债务的人士之一。他说，随着许多新兴市场国家“开始跨越通胀难关，新兴市场债券成为当前补充投资组合的一个有趣方式”，尤其是美元保持相对稳定的情况下。
Rick Rieder, BlackRock Inc.’s global fixed income chief investment officer, is among those eyeing emerging debt. With many of these nations “starting to get over the hump on inflation, then EM is an interesting way to supplement your portfolio today,” especially if the dollar stays relatively stable, he said.
里德在最近接受彭博电视采访时表示：“新兴市场正处于与发达市场截然不同的范式之中。”
“Emerging markets are on a very different paradigm than developed markets,” Rieder said in a recent Bloomberg TV interview.
上周日，拉美最大经济体巴西传出震惊的选举结果——左翼总统卢拉击败亲商候选人博尔索纳罗——这为该资产类别提供了最新的考验。虽然MSCI巴西股指周一暴跌逾19%，但MSCI新兴市场指数跌幅不足1%。两指数分别以周跌22%和不足1%收官。
Last Sunday’s shock election result from Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy — where leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva defeated pro-business candidate Flávio Bolsonaro — provided the latest test for the asset class. While the MSCI Brazil index of stocks crashed by more than 19%, the MSCI Emerging Market index lost less than 1% on Monday. The indexes closed out the week down 22% and less than 1% respectively.
资金流向表现出韧性。据美国银行汇编的EPFR Global数据，截至10月28日，发展中国家债券基金已连续第13周录得资金净流入。
And flows have proved resilient. Developing-nation bond funds had attracted inflows for an 13th straight week through Oct. 28, according to EPFR Global data compiled by Bank of America Corp.
传统上，人们认为新兴市场具备三个条件。这些条件包括：人均收入水平相对较低、金融市场与政治局势高度关联，以及汇率与利率之间存在紧密相关性——即货币贬值必然意味着借贷成本上升。
Traditionally, emerging markets were thought to have three conditions. Those included relatively lower levels of per capita income, financial markets that were highly connected to the state of politics and a tight correlation between exchange rates and interest rates — where currency declines necessarily meant higher borrowing costs.
但花旗集团首席拉美经济学家Ernesto Revilla表示，如今对于许多这类国家而言，只有第一个标准依然适用。他还指出：“毫无疑问，在某些维度上，发达国家看起来更像新兴市场。” 将世界划分为新兴市场和发达市场，仍然是大多数投行的架构方式。“但这些部门在分析、交易策略和对经济的理解方面所做的工作——如今看起来更加相似了，”Revilla说。
But now, says Ernesto Revilla at Citigroup Inc., only the first criterion still holds for many of these nations. The bank’s chief Latin American economist also says that “there’s no doubt advanced countries are looking more like emerging markets in some dimensions.”Dividing the world between emerging and developed markets remains the way most investment banks are structured. “But the work those divisions do in terms of analysis, trading strategies and understanding of the economies — it just looks more similar these days,” Revilla said.