巴西市场的抛售潮给新兴市场投资者敲响了警钟：拥挤交易可能以惊人的速度瓦解。
Brazil’s market selloff has delivered a stark warning to emerging-market investors: crowded trades can unravel with alarming speed.
马库斯·王报道，从亚洲人工智能相关股票到匈牙利债券和南非兰特，热门投资正面临新的审查，此前一场选举冲击导致巴西股票和雷亚尔暴跌，暴露出单边定位如何放大市场反转。
By Marcus Wong Popular bets ranging from Asian artificial intelligence-linked stocks to Hungarian bonds and the South African rand are facing fresh scrutiny after an election shock sent Brazilian shares and the real tumbling, exposing how one-sided positioning can amplify market reversals.
Allspring Global Investments认为，拥挤的人工智能股票容易受到围绕Anthropic首次公开募股的失望情绪影响，而Invesco则对超大规模云服务商的人工智能支出相关风险持谨慎态度。法国兴业银行（Societe Generale SA）因点差收窄而警示新兴市场信贷风险，而花旗集团（Citigroup Inc.）则指出匈牙利利率和福林以及当地货币边境债务的买方持仓集中。
Allspring Global Investments sees overcrowded AI stocks as vulnerable to disappointment around Anthropic’s IPO, while Invesco is wary of risks tied to hyperscalers’ AI spending. Societe Generale SA flags emerging-market credit due to tight spreads, while Citigroup Inc. is pointing to concentrated buy-side positions in Hungarian rates and the forint, and local-currency frontier debt.
“鹰派美联储或地缘政治冲突的显著升级，可能会给投资者偏好的新兴市场头寸带来压力，”纽约法国兴业银行新兴市场策略师布伦丹·麦肯纳（Brendan McKenna）表示。
“A hawkish Federal Reserve or material escalation in geopolitical conflicts could place pressure on EM positions that have been investor favorites,” said Brendan McKenna, emerging-market strategist at Societe Generale in New York.
头寸过度拉伸的迹象正在各个市场出现。杠杆基金对南非兰特的净多头头寸接近两年高点，而外国持有的匈牙利债券已攀升至创纪录水平。美国银行（Bank of America Corp.）上个月的一项调查显示，全球半导体股票是最拥挤的交易。
Signs of stretched positioning are cropping up across markets. Leveraged funds’ net-long position in the South African rand is near a two-year high, while foreign holdings of Hungarian bonds have climbed to a record. A Bank of America Corp. survey last month showed global semiconductor stocks as the most crowded trade.
周一，雷亚尔经历了自1999年以来最糟糕的一天，巴西股市在开盘几分钟后就触发了熔断。基准指数收盘下跌近14%，部分股票跌幅超过50%，左翼总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦（Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva）意外连任，打乱了大多押注右翼候选人弗拉维奥·博索纳罗（Flávio Bolsonaro）获胜的市场。
The realsuffered its worst day since 1999 on Monday, while Brazil’s stock market hit a trading halt just minutes after opening. The benchmark index ended down almost 14%, with some stocks losing over 50%, as the unexpected re-election of leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva upended markets largely positioned for a win for right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro.
结果公布前，雷亚尔是今年以来表现第二好的新兴市场货币，仅次于哥伦比亚比索，因为巴西的高利率吸引了寻求收益的外资，而大宗商品价格上涨提供了额外支撑。
Before the result, the real was the second-best-performing EM currency year-to-date behind the Colombian peso, as Brazil’s high interest rates attracted yield-seeking foreign funds, while stronger commodity prices provided additional support.
“可以看到，作为证据，这些天我们看到的损害规模，与卢拉意外连任有关，”摩根大通资产管理公司亚洲固定收益首席投资官朱利奥·卡莱加里周二在新加坡接受采访时表示。“这是一个巨大的风险价值冲击，对吧？我会说，市场甚至还没有完全平息。”“被挤入”法国兴业银行的麦肯纳将信贷列为最拥挤的交易之一。“息差非常紧，”他说，尤其是在通胀居高不下、央行收紧货币政策以及地缘政治不确定性的背景下。
“You see as an evidence, the size of the damage that we are seeing these days on the surprise re-election of Lula,” Julio Callegari, chief investment officer of Asia fixed income at JPMorgan Asset Management, said in an interview in Singapore on Tuesday. “It’s a big Value-at-Risk shock, right? I would say that the market is not even totally clean yet.”‘Squeezed Into’SocGen’s McKenna pointed to credit as one of the most crowded trades.
彭博新兴市场主权债券指数相对于可比美国国债的收益率溢价已缩窄至210个基点，比五年平均水平315个基点低出100多个基点。
“Spreads are very tight,” especially in the context of elevated inflation, central bank tightening and geopolitical uncertainty, he said.
与此同时，巴西的动荡也重新引起了人们对匈牙利的关注，匈牙利是今年新兴市场表现最突出的国家之一。当地资产因政府更迭而飙升，激发了人们对推进欧元采用的希望。外国持有的匈牙利国债和国库券上月达到创纪录的11.1万亿福林（340亿美元），凸显投资者大举涌入该债务的程度。
The yield premium of Bloomberg’s emerging-market sovereign bond index over comparable US Treasuries has narrowed to 210 basis points, more than 100 basis points below its five-year average of 315. Meanwhile, the turmoil in Brazil has also drawn renewed attention to Hungary, among the standout performers in emerging markets this year. Local assets have rallied as a change in government fueled hopes of progress toward euro adoption.
同样，商品期货交易委员会的数据经彭博汇编显示，杠杆基金和资产管理人持有约6.88亿美元的南非兰特净多头头寸，接近2024年底以来的最高水平。兰特一直是今年流行的套利交易之一——该策略涉及在低利率货币中借款，以投资于高收益资产。
Foreign holdings of Hungarian Treasury bonds and bills hit a record 11.1 trillion forints ($34 billion) last month, underscoring how heavily investors have piled into the debt. Similarly, leveraged funds and asset managers hold about $688 million of net long positions in the South African rand, near the highest since late 2024, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data compiled by Bloomberg show.
“鉴于风险资产波动率上升（尤其是利率方面），买方已被挤入几个类似的交易，”花旗银行策略师在最近的一份报告中写道。“如果这些残余的特色交易中的任何一个令人失望，我们可能会看到这种将风险从桌面上移除的倾向加速，”他们补充道。
The rand has been among this year’s popular carry trades — a strategy that involves borrowing in a low-interest-rate currency to invest in higher-yielding assets. “Given the rise in risky asset volatility (especially on the rates side), the buy-side has been squeezed into a few similar trades,” Citi strategists wrote in a recent note.
即使在边际市场，有资金支持的交易也正受到审查。新加坡Brandywine Global Investment Management基金经理Carol Lye指出，埃及、土耳其、尼日利亚和哈萨克斯坦短期本币边际票据存在拥挤的持仓。
“If any of those residual idiosyncratic trades disappoint, we could see an acceleration on this tendency to take risk off the table,” they added. In frontier markets too, trades that have funds are coming under scrutiny.
她表示，如果全球利率大幅上升，或股市开始抛售，你将“看到大量轮动资金退出这些交易”。摩根大通追踪边际国家债券表现的指标，自9月初创纪录高点以来已回调约3%。
Carol Lye, a fund manager at Brandywine Global Investment Management in Singapore, pointed to crowded positioning in short-term local-currency frontier bills from Egypt, Turkey, Nigeria and Kazakhstan. If global rates rise a lot more, or equity markets start to sell off, you will “see a lot of rotational money coming out of these trades,” she said.
当然，政治动荡和市场突然反转对新兴市场投资者来说是熟悉的风险。尽管对拥挤持仓存在担忧，但今年许多热门交易仍继续获得吸引力收益率和强劲企业盈利等因素的支持。
A JPMorgan gauge tracking the performance of debt issued by frontier nations has corrected about 3% since a record high in early September. To be sure, political upheaval and sudden market reversals are familiar risks for EM investors.
与此同时，一个开始出现裂痕的拥挤新兴市场交易是亚洲AI相关股票。由于一些美国科技巨头的财报令人失望，科技股出现抛售，且对巨额AI支出能否转化为可持续利润的担忧日益加剧。
And despite concerns about crowded positioning, many of this year’s popular trades continue to enjoy support from factors such as attractive yields and strong corporate earnings. Meanwhile, one crowded EM trade that has begun to show cracks is AI-linked equities in Asia.
“超大规模云服务商的AI支出仍是关键监测指标，”Invesco投资总监William Yuen表示，“任何有意义的放缓都可能削弱亚洲技术供应链公司的增长前景。”一项彭博社衡量该地区半导体相关股票的指标——这些股票处于AI硬件供应链核心——自6月高点以来已下跌近25%。
Tech stocks have sold off as earnings from some US megacaps disappointed, and concerns mounted over whether massive spending on AI can translate into sustainable profits. “Hyperscalers’ AI spending remains a key indicator to monitor,” said William Yuen, investment director at Invesco.
“在新兴市场股票中，与人工智能相关的股票和动量因子仍然是相对拥挤的交易，”Allspring Global投资组合经理Gary Tan表示。“Anthropic首次公开募股进程平淡可能会挑战市场情绪。”
“Any meaningful slowdown could weaken the growth outlook for Asian technology supply-chain companies.”A Bloomberg gauge of semiconductor-linked stocks in the region, which sits at the heart of the AI hardware supply chain, is down almost 25% since a June peak.
值得关注 投资者将监测包括韩国、印度尼西亚、菲律宾、泰国、台湾、土耳其、捷克共和国和智利在内的一系列经济体的通胀数据，以评估价格压力。印度尼西亚还将公布第三季度GDP数据。马来西亚、波兰、巴西、捷克共和国和墨西哥的央行也计划在下周宣布利率决定。
“Within EM equities, AI-related stocks and the momentum factor remain relatively crowded trades,” said Gary Tan, portfolio manager at Allspring Global. “A lackluster Anthropic IPO process could challenge sentiment.”What to Watch Investors will monitor inflation data from a slew of economies, including South Korea, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, Taiwan, Turkey, the Czech Republic and Chile, to gauge price pressures Indonesia will also release third quarter GDP data Central banks in Malaysia, Poland, Brazil, the Czech Republic and Mexico are also scheduled to announce interest-rate decisions in the coming week