就在大选日前夕，一项针对内布拉斯加州参议员竞选的最新民调显示，参议员皮特·里克茨（共和党-内布拉斯加州）领先其独立挑战者丹·奥斯本。《纽约时报》/锡耶纳大学的民调显示，在内布拉斯加州可能投票者中，里克茨以49%对43%领先奥斯本6个百分点。
Just ahead of Election Day, Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.) leads his independent challenger Dan Osborn, a new survey of the Nebraska Senate race shows. The New York Times/Siena University poll shows Ricketts leading Osborn by 6 points, 49 percent to 43 percent, respectively, among likely Nebraska voters.
11月的选举是连续第二个周期内布拉斯加州参议员选票上没有民主党候选人。在2024年和2026年，民主党人支持奥斯本，而不是推出自己的候选人，希望能更有机会击败共和党。虽然奥斯本尚未表示他将在美国参议院与哪个党党团会议结盟，但《纽约时报》的民调显示，大多数内布拉斯加州选民认为他更倾向于民主党。55%的受访者认为奥斯本更像民主党人，而只有33%认为他更像独立人士。仅有4%表示他更像共和党人。
November's election is the second cycle in a row in which no Democrat was on the Nebraska Senate ballot. In 2024 and 2026, Democrats backed Osborn instead of supporting their own candidate, hoping to have a better shot at defeating the GOP. While Osborn has not said he would caucus with one party or the other in the U.S. Senate, most Nebraska voters see him as more aligned with Democrats, the Times poll shows. Fifty-five percent think Osborn is more similar to Democrats, while just 33 percent believe he is more of an independent. Only 4 percent said he was more of a Republican.
在内布拉斯加州，被贴上民主党标签并无益处，71%的选民表示对民主党不满。尽管如此，奥斯本仅落后6个百分点，而在2024年特朗普总统在该州以超过20个百分点的优势获胜。根据《纽约时报》的民调，总统的支持率略低于不支持率——47%赞成，49%反对他的工作表现。
Being branded as a Democrat does not get you far in Nebraska, where 71 percent of voters said they were dissatisfied with the Democratic Party. Still, Osborn is running just 6 points behind in a state President Trump carried by more than 20 points in 2024. The president’s approval is underwater in the Times poll, but just barely — 47 percent approve and 49 percent disapprove of his job performance.
奥斯本在2024年的竞选中也仅以6个多百分点之差落败，当时他与参议员德布·费舍尔（共和党）展开了一场出人意料的激烈竞争。然而自那次竞选以来，共和党有了更多时间来定义奥斯本，并将他描绘成民主党人，这可能损害了他在选民心中的形象。
Osborn came within just over 6 points from winning in 2024 as well, when he ran a surprisingly competitive race against Sen. Deb Fischer (R). Since that campaign however, Republicans have had more time to define Osborn and paint him as a Democrat, which may have hurt his image with voters.
南达科他州和爱达荷州的民主党人同样没有候选人上榜，并分别支持独立挑战者对抗共和党参议员迈克·朗兹和吉姆·里施。蒙大拿州民主党试图采取相同策略，支持独立人士塞思·博德纳对抗共和党人库尔特·阿尔梅，但赢得本党初选的民主党人阿拉尼·班克黑德拒绝退出竞选。
Democrats in South Dakota and Idaho also have no candidate on the ballot and are backing independent challengers to GOP Sens. Mike Rounds and Jim Risch, respectively. Montana Democrats attempted to do the same, backing independent Seth Bodnar against Republican Kurt Alme, but Democrat Alani Bankhead, who won her party’s primary, refused to drop out of the race.
虽然里基茨在参议院竞选中领先，但民主党人在内布拉斯加州的众议院竞选中表现出人意料地强劲。该党极有希望翻盘赢得空缺的第2国会选区，甚至在由众议员迈克·弗劳德（共和党）代表、特朗普在2024年以两位数优势获胜的第1选区也展开了竞争。特朗普于10月初前往内布拉斯加州为里基茨举行集会，这是他在多个深红州进行的众多竞选活动之一，他的政党正努力在中期选举中守住这些州份。
While Ricketts leads in the Senate race, Democrats in Nebraska’s House races are running surprisingly strong. The party is heavily favored to flip the open 2nd Congressional District, and is even contesting the 1st district, represented by Rep. Mike Flood (R), which Trump won by double digits in 2024. Trump traveled to Nebraska to rally for Ricketts in early October, one of his many stops in deep-red states that his party is struggling to hold in the midterms.
《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院民调于10月23日至29日对809名内布拉斯加州可能投票者进行了调查，误差范围为正负4.2个百分点。
The Times/Siena poll was conducted from Oct. 23 to 29 among 809 likely Nebraska voters. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.2 points.