得克萨斯州韦瑟顿 —— 在大选日前夕，副总统万斯正聚焦于他的竞选信息传递，这在许多人看来是他在2024年竞选总统的预演，而这似乎已成定局。随着特朗普在竞选最后一个月几乎每天在全国各地举行中期选举集会，万斯的日程同样排得满满当当 —— 尽管相比之下，他的演讲和人群规模都较小。“他显然正在磨砺竞选利剑，积累人情债，为竞选做准备，”共和党捐赠人丹·埃伯哈特说。
Weatherton, TEXAS — Vice President Vance is homing in on his campaign message ahead of Election Day in what many see as a preview of a presidential bid in 2028 that seems all but certain. As Trump has criss-crossed the country for almost daily midterm rallies in the final month of campaigning, Vance’s schedule has stayed just as busy — though his speeches and crowds are tight by comparison. “He’s clearly sharpening his campaigning sword and building his IOU pile in preparation for a run,” said Dan Eberhart, a Republican donor.
“万斯无法吸引像特朗普那样规模的群众，但他在言辞上猛烈抨击民主党，精力充沛，”他补充道。这种好斗姿态周四在深红的得克萨斯州韦瑟顿的一次中期选举集会上展露无遗，大型建筑仓库内的观众已满员，场外还有人群通过大屏幕观看。“我需要你们告诉詹姆斯·塔拉里科，他对跨性别儿童的这种怪癖般的痴迷对得克萨斯州无益，我需要你们向每一位极左派活动人士、向所有指望得克萨斯州投降的人传达信息：五天后，得克萨斯州绝不会投降分毫，”万斯对情绪高涨的支持者说道，人群一度高呼“JD！”
“Vance can’t draw Trump’s crowds, but he is energetic in his verbal knifing of Democrats,” he added. That feistiness was on full display at a midterm rally in deep, red Weatherton, Texas on Thursday, where the crowd in a large construction warehouse was at capacity inside, with crowds watching on a jumbotron outside. “I need you to tell James Talarico that this weird obsession with trans kids is not good for the state of Texas, and I need you to send the message to every far-left activist, to everybody who expects Texas to surrender, that in five days Texas is not surrendering a damn thing,” Vance said to an energized crowd, which at times chanted “JD!”
万斯是《乡下人的悲歌》的作者，他回溯了自己在阿巴拉契亚地区成长的经历，自称“作为你们的副总统，我是美国梦的产物”。“因为美国梦曾降临于我，我希望它也能降临于你们，”万斯在得克萨斯州对支持者们说道。万斯因其信息传递和表达方式仍招致政治对手的大量批评，他在试图为共和党解开“特朗普2.0”难题：在与总统不受欢迎的政策拉开一定距离的同时，巩固基本盘的忠诚度。
Vance, who authored “Hillbilly Elegy,” harkened back to his experience growing up in Appalachia, referring to himself as “a product of the American dream as your vice president.”“Because the American dream was there for me, I want it to be there for you,” Vance told supporters in Texas. Vance still invites plenty of criticism from his political adversaries over his messaging and delivery, as he tries to navigate the Trump 2.0 conundrum for Republicans: creating some distance from the president’s unpopular policies while building loyalty among his base.
在得克萨斯州的一次福克斯新闻市政厅活动中，副总统被问及：如果购房在经济上遥不可及，年轻人如何指望结婚生子？
During a Fox News town hall in Texas, the vice president was asked how young people can expect to get married and raise a family if homeownership is financially out of reach.
在正式回答问题之前，万斯开玩笑说，他只被问过一个关于俄亥俄州参议员乔恩·赫斯特德（Jon Husted，共和党）屁股的问题，暗指特朗普最近的一个执念。政治左派的批评者迅速抨击万斯的最初回应令人尴尬且脱离现实。副总统还招致了民主党人的嘲讽，并与自己党内一些人产生分歧，因为他公开支持维韦克·拉马斯瓦米（Vivek Ramaswamy）在俄亥俄州州长竞选中极具争议的攻击性广告，即便一些共和党人也在批评他们的候选人。
Before answering the question in full, Vance joked that he had only been asked one question about Ohio Sen. Jon Husted’s (R ) ass, alluding to one of Trump’s recent fixations. Vance’s critics on the political left were quick to knock Vance’s initial response as cringey and out of touch. The vice president also drew scorn from Democrats, and veered from some in his own party, when he spoke out in support of Vivek Ramaswamy’s divisive attack ad in the Ohio governor’s race, even as some in the GOP criticized their candidate.
尽管如此，许多共和党人对他在2026年冲刺阶段的表现感到鼓舞，这场选举可能会给该党带来惨痛打击。“他目前正在该层面获得一些真正优质、高质量的政治实战演练，并利用中期选举日程这样做，同时显然也在外出帮助那些在一些真正关键的全州性竞选中需要帮助的候选人，”一位共和党策略师说。仅本周，万斯就造访了堪萨斯州、蒙大拿州、北卡罗来纳州和得克萨斯州。
Still, many Republicans are encouraged by his performance down the 2026 homestretch, ahead of what could be a bruising election for the party. “He’s getting in some really good, quality political reps at that level right now, and taking advantage of the midterm calendar to do it while at the same time obviously going out to try and be helpful to candidates who need it in some really critical statewide races,” said one Republican strategist. Vance has made stops in Kansas, Montana, North Carolina, and Texas this week alone.
自初选竞选活动开始以来，他已发表数十场演讲，同时还以特朗普欺诈工作组组长的身份在全国巡回。周一，他将返回家乡俄亥俄州，为有争议的州长和参议院竞选中的共和党人助选。他还将在纽约州罗姆市造势，该市位于该州第21国会选区。非党派的《库克政治报告》（Cook Political Report）将这场无现任议员竞争的选举评为“倾向共和党”。
He’s given dozens of speeches since campaigning began for primaries, while also touring the country as the head of Trump’s fraud task force. On Monday, he will return to his home state of Ohio to stump for Republicans in the contentious gubernatorial and Senate races. He’ll also campaign in Rome, N.Y., located in the state’s 21st congressional district. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the open race as “lean Republican.”
“我不知道这算不算一种考验，更多的是一个展示他能力的机会，”俄亥俄州共和党策略师克里斯·约翰逊（Chris Johnson）说。“我在相当中间偏右的俄亥俄州共和党政治环境中长大，听JD（万斯）讲话让我激进化了，推动我走向这种更加民族主义的立场，”他说。虽然万斯坚称自己全神贯注于中期选举，但他经常对关于自己政治前途的问题一笑置之。
“I don’t know if it’s a test as much of an opportunity to show what he can do,” said Chris Johnson, an Ohio Republican strategist. “I grew up with pretty center-right Ohio Republican politics and listening to JD talk radicalized me, and moved me toward this much more nationalist position,” he said. While Vance has maintained he is laser-focused on the midterms, he regularly smiles off questions about his political future.
他在本月初接受马克·哈尔珀林在2WAY的采访时表示，如果他参选，特朗普大概率会支持他。尽管特朗普给了万斯这个造势平台，但这位副总统仍面临大多数副总统都要面对的障碍。“当你身处副总统的位置时，往往只能局限于正职想要达成的任何目标，”约翰逊说。“你也并没有真正获得太多回旋余地去做自己的事，或发出自己的声音。”
And he said Trump would probably back him if he ran, in an interview with Mark Halperin on 2WAY earlier this month. Although Trump has given Vance the fraud platform, the VP still faces the same hurdles as most VPs. “When you’re in the role as vice president, you’re often limited to whatever the goals of the principal are,” Johnson said. “You’re also not really given a lot of wiggle room to do your own thing or have your own voice.”
“但他确实拥有这种非常独特、引人入胜的声音和故事，所以当他最近获得更多自由度，能做回自己、展现真实自我时，那就是你看到他真正取得成功的地方，”他接着说。
“But he does have this really unique, compelling voice and story, and so when he’s been getting more leeway like he’s been getting recently to be himself, be authentic, that’s where you’re seeing the real success,” he continued.
围绕万斯以及其他潜在2028年提名人的猜测，将在中期选举后达到白热化程度。另一位争夺特朗普“王位继承人”地位的竞争者、国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥昨晚表示，他“目前没有计划”竞选总统。鲁比奥大多避免参与竞选活动，但本周早些时候随特朗普前往得克萨斯州，在特朗普把他叫上台后发言了约11秒。特朗普尚未背书任何候选人，但曾形容万斯和鲁比奥搭档同一张竞选名单是“梦之队”。
The speculation around Vance, and other potential 2028 nominees, will hit fever pitch after the midterms. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, another contender for Trump’s crown, said last night that he has “no plans at this time” to run for president. Rubio has mostly steered clear of campaigning, but joined Trump on a trip to Texas earlier this week, speaking for about 11 seconds after Trump called him onto the stage. Trump has not yet endorsed a candidate, but has described the prospect Vance and Rubio on the same ticket as the “dream team.”
“我认为万斯大概率会先获得机会，你知道，第一个机会，第一优先拒绝权，”这位不愿具名的共和党策略师说。但惨烈的中期选举可能会让共和党在距离后特朗普时代还有两年的时间里陷入混乱。“除非我们挑战地心引力、战胜赔率，否则任何‘显而易见的继承人’想法，大概率会在下周三被抛诸脑后，”这位策略师说。“他将不得不为此努力。他将不得不靠实力赢得它，”这位策略师补充道。
“I think Vance probably gets first crack at it, you know the first opportunity, the first right of refusal,” the unnamed Republican strategist said. But a bruising midterms could leave Republicans in disarray two years out from their post-Trump future. “Any thought of ‘heir apparent’ is probably thrown out the window next Wednesday unless we defy gravity and beat the odd,” the strategist said. “He’s going to have to work for it. He’s going to have to earn it,” the strategist added.
万斯在铁杆共和党支持者聚会的非正式民调中经常名列前茅。这种优势能在多大程度上转化为初选胜利，将在约15个月后接受检验。
Vance has regularly topped straw polls in gatherings of hardcore Republican supporters. How that translates to primary elections will be tested in about 15 months.
“如果党内忠实支持者，从爱荷华州党团会议参与者开始，仍想延续MAGA趋势，那么他很可能就是提名人，”这位不愿具名的策略人士说。约翰逊指出，万斯42岁的年龄可能对他有利，并提到他在年轻保守派中的受欢迎程度。“如果这导致党内出现一种‘来到耶稣面前’的时刻，我认为人们会立即开始展望未来，如果你在展望未来，那么你想要首先考虑的人就是副总统，”约翰逊说。
“If the party faithful, starting with Iowa Caucus goers still want to continue the MAGA trend, then he is the likely nominee,” the unnamed strategist said. Johnson noted that Vance’s age, 42, could work in his advantage, noting his popularity among young conservatives. “If this leads to a sort of come-to-Jesus moment within the party, I think folks are going to immediately start looking forward, and if you’re looking forward, the immediate guy that you want to start thinking about is the vice president,” Johnson said.