
新西兰11月7日大选的竞选活动,对70岁的兼职公交车司机利兹·哈特利来说,归根结底是日常生活的开销问题。
The campaign for New Zealand's general election on November 7 comes down to the price of everyday life for 70-year-old Liz Hartley, a part-time bus driver.
“你得工作赚钱,才能支付额外开销,偶尔犒劳一下自己,”哈特利在首都惠灵顿东北部的洛赫特市一处滨河集市的美食车前排队时说道,当时竞选志愿者正在人群中穿梭拉票。
"You've got to work to pay for the extras and to have a few treats," said Hartley, queuing at a food truck as election volunteers worked the crowd at a riverside market in Lower Hutt, a city northeast of Wellington, the capital.
因此,哈特利表示,她计划在哈特南选区投战术票,目的是阻止国家党现任议员、政府高层核心人物之一的克里斯·比绍普连任。
As a result, Hartley said, she plans a tactical vote in her Hutt South constituency aimed at denying reelection for National Party incumbent Chris Bishop, one of the most senior figures in government.
三年前,城市选民助推国家党凭借降低通胀和政府债务的承诺赢得大选。三年后的今天,新西兰仍难以彻底摆脱衰退,尽管国家党声称已为未来增长奠定基础。
Three years after urban voters helped the National Party win election on promises to cut inflation and government debt, New Zealand is struggling to fully shake off a recession, though the party says it has laid the foundations for future growth. In Hutt South, Bishop faces voters battered by a cost of living crisis and expenditure cuts in the capital that eliminated jobs for contractors, and shrivelled spending at shops and businesses.
在哈特南选区,比绍普面对的选民深受生活成本危机之苦,且首都的开支削减取消了承包商岗位,导致商店和企业的消费萎缩。
Voters in the constituency, which spans communities east of Wellington, want a plan to "move the country forward and drive prosperity," Bishop told Reuters.
比绍普对路透社表示,这个横跨惠灵顿东部多个社区的选区的选民,想要一个“推动国家前进、带动繁荣”的规划。
"My sense is that our economic plan is beginning to work, and we need more time to see it through," he added.
他补充道:“我感觉我们的经济规划开始见效,我们需要更多时间将其落实到底。”
As New Zealand emerges from years of sluggish economic growth, its lagging urban sector presents a challenge for the National Party to retain votes in the cities of 30,000 or more that are home to about 65% of a population of 5.5 million.
随着新西兰走出多年的经济增长乏力期,疲软的城市板块给国家党在城市留住选票带来了挑战——人口约550万的新西兰,约65%的人口居住在人口3万或以上的城市中。
A shift to National from Labour in traditional left-leaning urban areas in the largest city of Auckland helped propel the party to victory in 2023.
2023年大选中,最大城市奥克兰传统左倾城市地区的选民从工党转向国家党,帮助该党赢得胜利。
If not for the "economic funk" engulfing most voters, the National Party would have a much easier route back to office, said political commentator Grant Duncan.
政治评论员格兰特·邓肯表示,要不是大多数选民陷入“经济低迷”,国家党重返执政的道路会轻松得多。
"National comes in with this reputation for being the great economic and fiscal managers ... and it hasn't worked out."
“国家党带着‘杰出的经济和财政管理者’的声誉上台……但结果并不如意。”他补充说,政府并非完全有过错,但总理克里斯托弗·拉克斯森在2023年大选前也做出了无法兑现的经济承诺。
The government was not entirely at fault, but Prime Minister Christopher Luxon also made economic promises ahead of the 2023 election that he could not keep, he added. New Zealand had endured "shock after shock after shock," said Kiwibank Chief Economist Jarrod Kerr, which meant that the promise of a recovery has been postponed, "The cost of living crisis is very real for many businesses and households."
新西兰基维银行首席经济学家贾罗德·科尔表示,新西兰经历了“一次又一次又一次的冲击”,这意味着复苏的承诺被推迟了,“生活成本危机对许多企业和家庭来说非常真实。”但农村和城市地区的表现截然不同,旅游业和较高的农产品出口支撑了前者,尤其是在南岛,第二季度零售支出同比增长8.6%。
But rural and urban areas have fared very differently, with tourism and higher agricultural exports supporting the former, especially on the South Island, where second-quarter retail spending was up 8.6% on the year. In urban locations such as Auckland and Wellington on the more populous North Island, however, consumer spending has lagged, with a smaller corresponding rise of 5.8%.
然而,在人口更稠密的北岛的奥克兰和惠灵顿等城市地区,消费支出却滞后,相应增幅较小,仅为5.8%。
Jobs also reflect the divergence, with unemployment over the period falling 0.6 percentage points in the South Island but rising 0.7 percentage points in the North Island.
就业情况也反映了这种分化,同期南岛失业率下降0.6个百分点,而北岛却上升0.7个百分点。
House prices, another key concern for voters, are down almost 30% from their peak in Wellington and 24.7% in Auckland, eroding middle-class wealth, versus a drop of 17% nationally.
房价是选民另一大关切,惠灵顿较峰值下跌近30%,奥克兰下跌24.7%,侵蚀了中产阶级财富,而全国整体跌幅为17%。
"A third of the economy is doing really well, and two-thirds are still trying to find their feet," Kerr added.
“三分之一的经济表现非常好,三分之二仍在努力站稳脚跟,”科尔补充道。
Polls show no clear path back to government after the election for any potential coalition, as voters look back at Labour or smaller parties such as the centrist Opportunity Party that could be the first new party in government since 1996.
民调显示,大选后任何潜在联盟都没有明确的回归执政路径,因为选民正回头审视工党或机会党等小党,后者可能成为1996年以来首个进入政府的新政党。
"People are really looking for something different," leader Qiulae Wong told Reuters in August, as the party draws urban professionals and voters disillusioned with the left-right divide.
“人们真正在寻找一些不同的东西,”机会党领袖王琪娜8月告诉路透社,该党吸引了城市专业人士和对左右之分感到幻灭的选民。
It is getting ever harder to sell National's message that the programme of fiscal restraint and infrastructure investment is laying the groundwork for stronger growth, said political commentator Liam Hehir.
政治评论员利亚姆·希尔(Liam Hehir)表示,国家党要推销其“财政紧缩与基建投资的计划正在为更强劲的增长奠定基础”这一信息,变得愈发困难。
"National is continuing to promise, 'We've done the hard work, we're going to get the benefits now, just hang on for a bit longer,'" he said.
他说:“国家党仍在承诺:‘我们已经完成了艰苦的工作,现在将迎来收益,请再坚持一下。’你不可能让这种说法持续三年。”一个左翼联盟正主张政府扮演更大角色,以帮助缓解家庭压力、支持公共服务并解决住房负担能力问题。
"You don't get three years of that." A left-wing coalition is pitching a bigger government role to help relieve household pressures, support public services and tackle housing affordability.
但希尔补充说,选民仍记得之前工党政府时期疲弱的经济增长,这导致他们比过去更倾向于“货比三家”。
But voters still remembered weak economic growth under the previous Labour government, leading them to "shop around" more than in the past, Hehir added.
英福麦特里克斯(Infometrics)首席经济学家布拉德·奥尔森(Brad Olsen)表示,对选民而言,“老话‘关键是经济,笨蛋’依然响亮清晰。”
"The old adage of 'It's the economy, stupid' still rings fairly clear," for voters, said Infometrics chief economist Brad Olsen.
在哈特南选区(Hutt South),哈特利(Hartley)本该享受退休生活,却因物价上涨导致周末所剩无几,不得不从事兼职工作。“你不再有积蓄了,积蓄这东西已经不存在了,”哈特利说。
In Hutt South, Hartley should be enjoying retirement but finds herself working part-time, as rising prices leave very little by the end of the week. "You don't have savings anymore, there is no such thing anymore," Hartley said.