每年有数万名新西兰人离开该国，许多人跨越塔斯曼海前往澳大利亚寻找更好的机会。离境人数接近十多年来的最高水平——这是新西兰面临经济压力的一个迹象，迫使政界人士在11月7日的大选前不得不正视这一问题。
Tens of thousands of New Zealanders are leaving their country each year, many crossing the Tasman in search of better opportunities in Australia. Departures are running close to their highest level in more than a decade — a sign of the economic pressures facing the country that politicians are being forced to confront ahead of the Nov. 7 general election.
尽管新西兰在2024年走出了深度衰退，但家庭仍在应对高昂的生活成本、低于平均水平的经济增长和疲软的就业市场。此外，人口老龄化给医疗系统带来压力，动荡的全球环境也增加了挑战。
Even though New Zealand emerged from a deep recession in 2024, households are still grappling with a high cost of living, below-average economic growth and a weak job market. On top of that is a healthcare system under strain from an aging population and a volatile global environment adding to the challenges.
这使得下一届政府面临艰巨任务：提高生活水平，改善公共服务，最终让新西兰成为一个更具吸引力的生活和工作场所。主要竞争在总理克里斯托弗·拉克斯领导的中右翼国家党和克里斯·希普金斯领导的中左翼工党之间展开。两党都承诺促进经济增长、创造就业和减轻家庭压力，但在实现路径上存在分歧。
That leaves the next government with a difficult task ahead: to lift living standards, improve public services and ultimately make New Zealand a more appealing place to live and work. The main contest is between Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s center-right National Party and the center-left Labour Party, led by Chris Hipkins. Both are promising to grow the economy, generate jobs and reduce pressure on households, but they differ on how to get there.
国家党专注于控制政府开支、整顿财政，认为这将有助于维持较低的利率、刺激招聘并推高工资。希普金斯则主张工党政府增加对新建住房和医疗的投资，更加注重创造就业，包括通过支持更多学徒计划。工党还希望改变央行的货币政策授权，要求其在制定利率时除通胀外还要考虑就业因素。
National is focused on constraining government spending and getting the books in order, arguing that this will help keep interest rates lower, stimulate hiring and push up wages. Hipkins, on the other hand, wants a Labour government to invest more in new housing and healthcare and to put a greater focus on creating jobs, including through support for more apprenticeships. Labour also wants to change the central bank’s monetary policy mandate, requiring it to consider employment alongside inflation when setting interest rates.
较小政党在决定谁将组阁执政方面也将发挥重要作用。绿党传统上支持工党，并希望大幅增加政府开支，为此提出了征收财富税以及对高收入者征收45%所得税率的方案。新西兰优先党过去三年支持国家党，主张设立一家国有银行，并降低小企业税收。
Smaller parties will also play an important role in determining who governs. The Greens, which traditionally support Labour and want to significantly boost government spending, have proposed a wealth tax and a 45% income tax rate on high earners to pay for it. New Zealand First, which has supported National for the past three years, wants to create a government-owned bank and lower taxes for small businesses.
以下五张图表展示了一些将塑造此次大选走向的、选民最关心的重大议题。
Here are five charts that show some of the biggest issues for voters that are set to shape the election.
家庭面临的经济压力一直是近期世界各地大选的核心议题，中东战争和俄罗斯入侵乌克兰推高了食品和能源价格。但在新西兰，日常食品杂货价格的涨幅尤为显著：面包价格比三年前上涨了64%，黄油上涨57%，绞肉上涨35%，牛奶上涨30%。
The financial pressure facing households has been a central issue in recent elections around the world, as wars in the Middle East and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have put pressure on food and energy prices. But in New Zealand, the rising cost of everyday groceries has been particularly stark: Bread costs 64% more than three years ago, butter is up 57%, ground beef costs 35% more and milk is up 30%.
“生活成本是许多家庭最关心的问题，”Infometrics首席经济学家布拉德·奥尔森表示。“显然，目前存在一些相当大的压力，特别是燃油成本，确实让人感到痛楚。上一次我们在上届大选前后经历巨大的生活成本压力积累时，劳动力市场也非常紧张，工资大体上能跟上成本的变化，”他说。
“The cost of living is top of mind for a lot of households,” said Brad Olsen, principal economist at Infometrics. “Clearly at the moment there are some pretty big pressures, particularly around fuel costs that are really biting. The last time we had a big cost-of-living pressure buildup around that last election we also had such a tight labor market that wages sort of were broadly keeping pace with changes in costs,” he said.
此类价格上涨促使各党派政客纷纷提出重大市场干预措施，旨在改善竞争、降低成本。国家党和新西兰优先党提议拆分两大主导超市连锁之一的Foodstuffs，以创造第三个竞争对手，让消费者买到更便宜的商品。工党希望立法禁止大公司对包括食品杂货、燃料、银行和保险在内的基本必需品收取过高价格。与此同时，绿党希望通过收购现有超市并建立一家名为“KiwiMart”的国有连锁超市，来打破超市双寡头垄断局面。
Such price increases have prompted politicians across the spectrum to propose significant market interventions aimed at improving competition and lowering costs. National and New Zealand First have proposed splitting one of the two dominant supermarket chains, Foodstuffs, to create a third competitor in order to give consumers access to cheaper goods. Labour wants to make it illegal for big companies to charge excessive prices for essentials including groceries, fuel, banking and insurance. The Greens, meanwhile, want to tackle the supermarket duopoly by buying existing supermarkets and establishing a state-owned chain called KiwiMart.
电力已成为家庭预算的又一压力来源——也是大选的主要战场。过去12个月电价上涨近9.5%，两年累计上涨22%，主要因为网络成本上升，电网运营商Transpower和当地输电公司将更换老化基础设施的费用转嫁给用户。
Electricity has become another pressure on household budgets — and a major election battleground. Prices have risen nearly 9.5% in the past 12 months and 22% in two years, largely because of higher network costs as grid operator Transpower and local lines companies have passed on the expense of replacing aging infrastructure.
天气会加剧压力。新西兰大部分电力来自水电等可再生能源，导致系统易受干旱影响。水库水位下降时，该国更多依赖昂贵的燃气或燃煤发电，推高批发电价，最终可能传导至家庭和企业。2024年干旱导致电价大幅飙升，迫使多家企业关闭，包括Winstone Pulp International Ltd.的两家工厂。
Weather can add to the pressure. New Zealand generates most of its power from renewable sources such as hydro, leaving the system vulnerable to dry periods. When reservoir water levels fall, the country relies more heavily on expensive gas- or coal-fired generation, pushing up wholesale prices that can ultimately flow through to households and businesses. In 2024, dry conditions contributed to a dramatic spike in power prices, forcing several businesses to close, including two Winstone Pulp International Ltd. mills.
满足电力需求是另一个更长期的挑战。据电网运营商Transpower预测，随着经济日益电气化，未来28年电力需求将激增68%。若大规模投资人工智能并建设更多数据中心，增速可能更快。电力公司——大多兼营发电和售电——正大力投资新项目，包括光伏和风电场，以应对增长。
Meeting electricity demand is another, longer-term challenge. Demand is set to surge 68% over the next 28 years, according to grid operator Transpower, as the economy becomes increasingly electrified. It could rise even faster with significant artificial intelligence investment and more data centers. Power companies — most of which both generate and sell electricity — are investing heavily in new projects, including solar and wind farms, to meet that growth.
各方普遍认同新西兰需要更多电力，但在如何供电、化石燃料的角色以及电力市场本身是否需要彻底改革等问题上分歧显著。新西兰优先党和绿党主张拆分电力公司，将其发电业务剥离，以确保供应更具竞争力。国家党希望放宽规划规则，加快可再生能源项目开发，同时建设液化天然气（LNG）进口终端，保障枯水年供电安全。工党提议设立未来基金，与私人资本共同投资，改善发电和输电。
There’s broad agreement that New Zealand needs more electricity but parties differ significantly over how it should be provided, the role of fossil fuels and whether the power market itself needs an overhaul. New Zealand First and the Greens want to break up the power companies to separate their generation businesses and ensure a more competitive supply. National wants to relax planning rules to speed up development of renewable projects, while also establishing an LNG import terminal to ensure security of supply in dry years. Labour proposes a Future Fund that would invest alongside private capital to improve generation and transmission.
新西兰的失业率已上升至5.6%，为11年来最高水平——企业面临成本上升和收益下降，已变得不愿招聘和扩张。年轻人受到的冲击尤为严重，15至24岁年龄段的失业率约为17%。新西兰经济研究所将青年失业形容为“危机”水平，指出包括经济复苏乏力、技术快速变革以及在传统雇佣年轻人的行业中对临时外籍劳工依赖加大等因素构成了“一场完美风暴”。
New Zealand’s unemployment rate has climbed to 5.6% — the highest in 11 years — as businesses, faced with rising costs and falling earnings, have become reluctant to hire and expand. Young people have been hit particularly hard, with unemployment among those aged 15 to 24 at about 17%. The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research has described youth unemployment as being at “crisis” levels, pointing to a “perfect storm” of factors including a sluggish economic recovery, rapid technological change and greater reliance on temporary migrant workers in sectors that traditionally employ young people.
截至6月的12个月内，经济新增了33,000个岗位，但同期有47,000人额外在寻找工作。许多人是为补贴收入而寻找额外工时的兼职或第二份工作。劳动力市场的松弛限制了工资上涨，私营部门普通工时工资在这12个月内仅上升了3%。
The economy added 33,000 jobs in the 12 months through June, but there were 47,000 more people over the same period looking for work. Many are part-timers seeking extra hours or second jobs as incomes are squeezed. The slack in the labor market has kept a cap on wages, with average ordinary-time earnings for private-sector workers rising just 3% over those 12 months.
从更长远的角度看，2023年以来，平均时薪已上升14%，略高于整体消费者物价的11%涨幅。最低工资自那时起仅上调了5.5%。
Taking a longer view, the median hourly wage has risen 14% since 2023, slightly outpacing the 11% increase in overall consumer prices. The minimum wage has increased just 5.5% since then.
因此，创造更多岗位和提升工资成为本次选举各政党重点关注的议题。工党提出通过促进住宅建设和基础设施项目来创造就业，并提供资金帮助更多高中毕业生接受行业和建筑类职业培训。国民党则主张通过提升资本投资和支持私营企业来创造更多岗位，并希望通过收紧福利义务，鼓励更多领取福利的人申请工作。
Creating more jobs and lifting wages are consequently key priorities for political parties at this election. Labour has proposed programs to boost homebuilding and infrastructure projects that it says will create jobs, alongside funding to help more school leavers train for roles in trades and construction. National argues its plans to boost capital investment and support private businesses will create more jobs, and wants to encourage more people on welfare to apply for them by tightening benefit obligations.
随着人口增长和老龄化，基本医疗服务的可及性恶化，给医院和全科医生带来更大压力。劳动力短缺进一步加剧了这一问题，护士和医生纷纷赴海外寻求更高薪酬和职业发展机会。
Access to basic care has deteriorated as the nation’s population grows and gets older, increasing pressure on hospitals and general practitioners. Workforce shortages have compounded the problem, with nurses and doctors heading overseas for better pay and career opportunities.
预约全科医生变得尤为困难。卫生质量与安全委员会5月调查的患者中，超过三分之一需要等待超过一周才能看全科医生，而六年前这一比例约为10%。医院也面临压力，反映出人手短缺、设施老化和需求上升。不过，也出现了一些改善迹象：72%的患者在被接受治疗后四个月内接受了非急诊治疗，而两年前这一比例为55%。
Getting an appointment with a general practitioner has become particularly difficult. More than a third of patients surveyed in May by the Health Quality and Safety Commission had to wait more than a week to see a GP, compared with around 10% just six years ago. Hospitals are also under pressure, reflecting staff shortages, aging facilities and rising demand. There have, however, been some signs of improvement: 72% of patients received non-emergency treatment within four months of being accepted for care, up from 55% two years ago.
各大政党都承诺解决人手短缺问题，改善医疗服务。工党希望提供免息贷款，帮助医生购买当地诊所的股份。工党还承诺加速对老旧医院的维修，并为每年约2400名护理毕业生保证卫生系统内的工作岗位。与此同时，由国民党领导的政府正在建设一所新的医学院，该党还提议为地方医生提供额外资金。新西兰第一党希望引入医院等待名单削减基金，让全科医生可以直接安排治疗，包括与私立医疗机构合作。
The major parties have promised to address staff shortages and improve access to care. Labour wants to offer interest-free loans to help doctors buy into local clinics. It has also promised to accelerate repairs to aging hospitals and guarantee jobs in the health system for around 2,400 graduate nurses each year. The National-led government, meanwhile, is building a new medical school and the party has proposed additional funding for local doctors. New Zealand First wants to introduce a hospital waitlist reduction fund so general practitioners can directly arrange treatment, including with private providers.
新西兰正经历数十年来最持久的住宅房地产低迷。房价在四年多前开始下跌，目前仍比2022年初的高点低约19%。
New Zealand is experiencing its most prolonged residential property slumps in decades. House prices began falling more than four years ago and remain around 19% below their early 2022 peak.
多种因素共同作用。主要城市的规划变化鼓励了更多高密度开发，住房供应增加，而净移民人数大幅下降削弱了需求。高失业率和较高的抵押贷款利率也让购房者观望。
Several factors are at play. Housing supply has increased after planning changes in major cities encouraged more multi-density development, while a sharp decline in net migration has weakened demand. High unemployment and elevated mortgage rates are also keeping buyers on the sidelines.
房价下跌给本次选举中的政客们带来了两难困境。理论上，价格下降能提高可负担性，但房地产市场长期低迷也可能拖累整体经济。这是因为房价下跌会让房主感觉不那么富有，也就不那么愿意在装修和重大家居用品上花钱，从而抑制建筑活动和消费支出。
Falling prices present a dilemma for politicians at this election. Lower prices, in theory, improve affordability, but a prolonged property slump can also weigh on the broader economy. That’s because falling property prices can make homeowners feel less wealthy and less inclined to spend on renovations and major household items, dampening both construction activity and consumer spending.
这使得两大政党都在努力改善住房可负担性，同时又不想进一步削弱市场。工党提议征收资本利得税，这可能会减少投资者的需求，同时扩大低首付贷款的获取渠道，帮助更多首次购房者上房梯。与此同时，国家党希望维持对投资者的税收优惠，认为这将刺激需求并促进更多房屋建设。
That leaves both main parties trying to improve housing affordability without further weakening the market. Labour is proposing a capital gains tax that could reduce demand from investors, while also expanding access to low-deposit loans to help more first-time buyers onto the property ladder. National, meanwhile, wants to maintain tax incentives for investors, arguing that will stimulate demand and more housebuilding.