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选举日当天你很可能看到的五种阴谋论Five kinds of conspiracy theories you’ll likely see on Election Day

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2026年10月28日,明尼苏达州明尼阿波利斯市,选民在一个提前投票投票站填写选票。Voters fill out their ballots at an early voting polling location in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on October 28, 2026.

这是美国民主最重要的一天。这也是互联网上错误信息的“超级碗”。

It’s the most important day in American democracy. It’s also the Super Bowl for misinformation on the internet.

数千万选民在横跨美国本土及海外领土的数万个投票站投票,选举日成为病毒式传播的阴谋论和混乱的绝佳温床。

With tens of millions of people voting in tens of thousands of polling locations across the continental United States and beyond, Election Day is the perfect breeding ground for viral conspiracy theories and confusion.

选举由人类运作,依赖各种机器,从简单的打印机到旨在保护投票完整性的复杂技术。人类和机器一样,有时会犯错。打印机卡纸,保险丝烧断导致断电,投票站工作人员没有合适的钥匙打开投票站。这类意外发生的频率比你想象的要高。

Elections are run by humans who rely on machines, from simple printers to sophisticated technology designed to protect the integrity of the vote. Humans, like machines, can sometimes make mistakes. Printers jam, a fuse blows and the power is cut, poll workers don’t have the right keys to open a polling location. Mishaps like this happen more than you might think.

选举工作人员针对几乎所有情况都制定了应急预案,力求确保没有人被剥夺投票权。如果因有人忘带钥匙导致投票站延迟开放,法官可以下令延长其开放时间,超过正常的关闭时间。如果投票机出现问题,选举工作人员可以让选民将选票投入安全的选票箱,选票将受到保护并在稍后处理。

Election workers have contingency plans for just about every scenario to do their best to ensure no one is disenfranchised. If a polling location is delayed opening because someone forgot a key, its opening hours can be extended by a judge beyond the regular closing time. If there is an issue with a voting machine, election workers can have voters put their ballots into a secure ballot box and the ballot will be protected and processed later.

轻微的意外和错误几乎肯定会发生。但它们并非恶意的自动铁证。然而,在我们这个高度两极分化、高度网络化的世界里,选举日的任何小插曲都有可能演变成猜测的风暴。

Minor mishaps and mistakes will almost certainly happen. They are not, however, automatic proof of malice. But in our hyper-polarized, hyper-online world, any Election Day snafu has the potential to spiral into a storm of speculation.

进一步使情况复杂化的是,选举是在地方层面而非联邦层面运行的。规则、流程、投票机和应急预案因你所在的州、城市、镇区或部落土地而异。

Further complicating matters, elections are run locally, not federally. Rules, processes, voting machines and contingency plans vary depending on the state, city, township or tribal land where you vote.

选民于2022年选举日在拉斯维加斯百年中心投票点排队投票。Melina Mara/《华盛顿邮报》/盖蒂图片社/资料图片Voters line up on Election Day in 2022 to cast their votes at Centennial Center polling place in Las Vegas. Melina Mara/The Washington Post/Getty Images/File

所有选举系统的设计初衷都是保障投票安全、维护选举诚信,但在社交媒体的漩涡中,任何看起来陌生的投票流程往往都被描述为可疑——被视为有不正当勾当的迹象。

All election systems are designed to keep the vote secure and maintain election integrity, but amid the maelstrom of social media, any voting process that appears unfamiliar is often framed as suspicious — a sign that something untoward is afoot.

我过去五个联邦选举周期一直在追踪错误信息的传播。以下是选举日需要警惕的几个方面:投票日伊始,几乎总会在某些地方出现一些问题。

I have spent the past five federal election cycles tracking the spread of misinformation. Here are a few things to watch out for on Election Day: There are almost always some issues somewhere at the start of polling day.

早早前来投票的选民可能会在社交媒体上发帖,抱怨他们遇到的任何问题。这些可以理解、并无恶意的社交媒体帖子,如今往往会被算法和那些试图质疑选举程序诚信的人捕捉并放大。在选民意识到之前,他们清晨在社交媒体上的抱怨已在互联网上四处传播,被浏览数百万次,并被编织进相关方试图描绘的任何叙事之中。

Voters who have shown up early to cast their ballot might post on social media their frustration about whatever issue they’re experiencing. These understandable, and not ill-intended, posts on social media will now often get picked up by the algorithms and people seeking to question the integrity of the electoral process. Before the voter knows it, their early morning social media complaint has ricocheted across the internet, been viewed millions of times, and woven into whatever narrative interested parties are trying to portray.

在2022年的上届中期选举中,亚利桑那州马里科帕县部分投票站出现了打印机问题。当地官员迅速启动应急预案,选民得以安全投出选票。事实上,当天晚些时候受理此事的一位马里科帕县法官表示,没有证据表明有想投票的人无法投票。

During the last midterm elections in 2022, an issue with printers cropped up at some polling locations in Maricopa County, Arizona. Officials there quickly implemented a contingency plan and people were able to securely cast their vote. Indeed, a Maricopa judge who was asked to adjudicate the issue later that day said there was no evidence that anyone who wanted to vote was not able to.

马里科帕县监事会主席比尔·盖茨于2022年11月9日在亚利桑那州凤凰城马里科帕县集计与选举中心就投票机故障发表讲话。Oliver Touron/法新社/盖蒂图片社Bill Gates, chair of the Maricopa Board of Supervisors, speaks about voting machine malfunctions at the Maricopa County Tabulation and Elections Center in Phoenix, Arizona, on November 9, 2022. Oliver Touron/AFP/Getty Images

然而,社交媒体上著名的选举否认者却在那个选举日花费数小时,指着马里科帕县的问题,称其为“窃取”选举的大阴谋的迹象。这是该类叙事的经典案例!

And yet, prominent election deniers on social media spent hours that Election Day pointing to the issue in Maricopa as sign of a grand conspiracy to “steal” the election. A classic of the genre!

正如约翰·金在选举之夜站在CNN的“魔力墙”前一样确定,你可以肯定有人会在选举日发布视频,声称视频显示机器篡改了他们的选票。

As sure as John King standing at CNN’s Magic Wall on election night, you can be sure someone will post a video on Election Day they claim shows a machine changing their vote.

这类问题通常是由于人为错误,有时也是因为部分投票机使用的较老旧触摸屏技术出现故障所致。

This issue often occurs due to human error or sometimes because of an issue with the older touchscreen technology used in some voting machines.

如果确实发生这种情况,选民几乎总能与选举工作人员沟通,且通常有既定流程确保他们的选票被正确投出。

If this does happen, voters can almost always talk to an election worker, and there is usually a process in place to ensure their vote is cast correctly.

如果在选举日看到此类视频在网上流传,值得追问一下:发帖人是否真的曾试图在投票站与选举工作人员当面解决问题——还是说他们主要是为了追逐社交媒体流量。

It’s worth asking if you see these videos circulating on Election Day if the person who posted it actually sought to remedy the issue in-person with the election staff at the polling location — or if they are primarily motivated by chasing social media views.

人工智能正渗透到我们生活的方方面面。从孩子们用它来做作业,到能让爷爷看起来像在跳“马卡雷纳”舞的视频工具。

Artificial intelligence is permeating every aspect of our lives. From kids using it to do their homework to video tools that can make it look like grandpa is dancing the Macarena.

考虑到其无处不在,很难相信就在几年前,制作令人信服的假视频还需要相当大的精力和技巧。

Given its ubiquity, it may be hard to believe it was only a couple of years ago that creating convincing fake videos took considerable effort and skill.

2020年大选日,一段标记给特朗普总统的选票被烧毁的视频在社交媒体上传播,甚至连总统的儿子埃里克也转发了它。2024年,一段声称显示选举工作人员撕毁选票的视频也疯传。

On Election Day 2020, a video of a ballot marked for President Trump being set on fire spread across social media, it was even shared by the president’s son Eric. In 2024, a video purporting to show an election worker tearing up ballots also went viral.

这两段视频均被证实为假视频,结果发现2024年的视频背后是俄罗斯特工。制作假视频的人至少还得费些劲,印出假选票,试图让视频看起来可信。

Both videos were confirmed to be fake, and it turned out that Russian operatives were behind the 2024 video. The people who made the fakes had to go to some effort, at least, to print out fake ballots to try to make the videos convincing.

非党派组织布伦南中心的最新研究显示,利用我们所有人都能用到的AI聊天工具,现在只需点击一下按钮,就能制作出令人信服地声称显示某种选举渎职行为的视频和图片。做好准备,迎接这周二大量假视频的到来吧!一旦投票结束,关注点将转向计票。

New research from the nonpartisan Brennan Center shows how videos and images convincingly purporting to show some kind of electoral malfeasance can now be created with the click of a button using AI chat tools available to all of us. Be prepared for a lot of fake videos this Tuesday! Once the polls close, attention will turn to the count.

选举工作人员于2026年10月28日在加利福尼亚州圣安娜橙县选民登记处的邮寄选票处理委员会准备待扫描计票的选票。Apu Gomes/盖蒂图片社Election workers prepare ballots to be scanned for counting in the Vote-By-Mail Ballot Processing-Boards at the Orange County Registrar of Voters Facility on October 28, 2026, in Santa Ana, California. Apu Gomes/Getty Images

不同州以不同方式计票。有些州比其他州慢。2020年,这种速度差异成了无数阴谋论的源头,这些阴谋论持续至今。

Different states count their votes in different ways. Some states are slower than others. In 2020, that difference in pace was the source of endless conspiracy theories that persist to this day.

在一些州,民主党往往通过大选日后才计数的邮寄选票实现显著反超。这可能意味着,在计票早期看似领先的候选人,在所有选票统计完毕后可能会落后。

In some states, the Democratic Party often makes significant gains through mail-in ballots that get counted after Election Day. This might mean a candidate who appears ahead in the early stage of the count, might fall behind when all the votes are tallied.

同样,来自深红或深蓝选区的结果可能突然改变谁在计票中领先。所有这些都在专家监督下进行,双方党派的代表观察计票过程,我们的选举专家同事也做了详尽解释。但阴谋论依然层出不穷。虚假信息的海啸让人应接不暇。

Likewise, results arriving from heavily red or heavily blue districts might suddenly change who is leading the count. All of this is overseen by experts, representatives from both parties who observe vote counts, and is explained at length by our election expert colleagues. But still, the conspiracy theories persist. The tsunami of misinformation can be overwhelming.

周二,该地区极有可能充斥着无休止的所谓选民舞弊报道,其中许多报道很可能会被美国总统放大。

On Tuesday, the zone will very likely be flooded with endless accounts of alleged voter fraud, many of them will likely be amplified by the president of the United States.

美国的选举并非完美——没有哪个系统是完美的。但在这个选举日,重要的是要记住,全国有数千名尽职尽责的选举官员正在工作,以确保选举安全可靠。

American elections are not perfect – no system is. But it’s important to remember on this Election Day that there are thousands of devoted election officials working across the country to ensure the election is safe and secure.

还有一个致力于选举否认的行业,其动机可能是政治、金钱或两者兼而有之,致力于告诉你相反的情况。他们会试图充斥该地区,制造出有很多“烟”的印象,希望你可能会相信有“火”。

There is also a committed industry of election deniers, motivated by politics or money or both, devoted to telling you otherwise. They will seek to flood the zone, to create the impression that there is a lot of smoke in the hope you might believe there is a fire.

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