纽约 —— 对于北达科他州中部的第四代农场主泰勒·斯塔夫斯利恩来说，经营家族自1912年起拥有的这块2500英亩土地，感觉越来越像是一场救援任务。
NEW YORK -- For Tyler Stafslien, a fourth-generation farmer in central North Dakota, running the 2,500-acre property his family has owned since 1912 feels increasingly like a rescue mission.
过去十年间，农业领域的整合推高了从种子到化学品和化肥几乎所有投入品的价格，而中东冲突导致柴油价格今年飙升，更加剧了这一趋势，压缩了斯塔夫斯利恩的利润空间。2018年唐纳德·特朗普总统首个任期内爆发的美中贸易战，永久性地损害了占他农场收入65%的大豆作物，使他不得不依赖联邦政府的救助金。
Consolidation in the agricultural sector drove up prices for virtually all inputs from seeds to chemicals and fertilizers over the past decade, a trend accelerated by the Middle East conflict that caused diesel prices to spike this year, squeezing Stafslien's bottom line. The initial U.S. trade war with China in 2018 during President Donald Trump's first term permanently shortchanged the soybean crop making up 65% of his farm's revenue, leaving him reliant on federal government bailouts.
斯塔夫斯利恩和其他美国农民面临的压力，正成为共和党在11月3日中期选举前的一项政治考验，反对党民主党希望在该选举中夺取参众两院的控制权。
The strain facing Stafslien and other U.S. farmers is becoming a political test for Republicans ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm elections, in which the opposition Democratic Party hopes to capture both houses of Congress.
2024年，美国农村地区绝大多数选民支持特朗普领导的共和党，但随着生产者面临更高的投入成本、不断攀升的债务，以及一个多年贸易冲突后尚未完全恢复的中国市场，对经济的不满情绪正在上升。
Rural America overwhelmingly backed Trump's Republican Party in 2024, but dissatisfaction with the economy has risen as producers contend with higher input costs, mounting debt and a Chinese market that has not fully recovered from years of trade conflict.
斯塔夫斯利恩对《日经亚洲评论》表示：“在大豆消费方面，无法替代中国市场。如果没有政府的临时救助项目，我的农场以及许多其他农场都无法生存下去。”共和党候选人在2024年赢得了约70%的农村选票。但美联社与凯撒家庭基金会（KFF）9月发布的一项民调显示，现在超过一半的农村选民不认可特朗普政府对经济的管理。
"There is no way to replace the Chinese market when it comes to soybean consumption," Stafslien told Nikkei Asia. "Without the government ad hoc programs, my farm, along with many others, would not have survived." The Republican ticket won about 70% of the rural vote in 2024. But now, more than half of rural voters disapprove of the Trump administration's handling of the economy, an AP-KFF poll published in September shows.
该民调发现，对经济持负面看法的农业州居民可能会弃权不投票。不认可现行经济政策的共和党选民，比认可者表示“绝对确定”会在选举日投票的可能性低20个百分点。
The poll found that farm-state residents with negative views of the economy may abstain from voting. Republicans who disapprove of current economic policies are 20 percentage points less likely than satisfied voters to say they are "absolutely certain" to turn out on election day.
俄亥俄州的大豆收获现场。最近的民调显示，爱荷华州、堪萨斯州、内布拉斯加州、得克萨斯州和俄亥俄州等农业州的美国参议院竞选出人意料地胶着。
A soybean harvest in Ohio. More recent polls show surprisingly close U.S. Senate races in farm states such as Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, Texas and Ohio.
咨询公司 Amato 5 月对近 1000 名农业生产者进行的一项民调发现，近 40% 的受访者尚未决定或正在考虑第三方候选人。几乎所有受访者都将美伊战争列为燃料和化肥成本飙升的主要驱动因素。
A May poll by consulting firm Amato of nearly 1,000 agricultural producers found that almost 40% were undecided or considering third-party candidates. Nearly all cited the U.S.-Iran war as a primary driver of surging fuel and fertilizer costs.
“这为一部分坚定的共和党选民打开了大门，让他们开始根据候选人的优劣来评估双方或替代候选人，而在传统上，他们可能只会毫不犹豫地为‘红队’[共和党]投下整张选票，”Amato 咨询公司负责人迈克·阿马托说。他曾任美国农业部通讯主任。
"It's opened the door for a portion of a staunch Republican constituency to evaluate both candidates or alternative candidates on their merits, whereas traditionally, they may have just pulled the lever for Team Red [the Republicans] altogether," said Mike Amato, a former communications director for the U.S. Department of Agriculture who now leads the Amato consultancy.
许多农民指出，特朗普政府的言辞与他们面临的现实之间的差距正在扩大。在大选前夕，特朗普在爱荷华州、堪萨斯州、得克萨斯州和俄亥俄州举行集会，以巩固原本被视为共和党大本营的地区的支持。10 月 19 日，华盛顿发放了 80 亿美元紧急援助，帮助农民应对收获季节的燃料开支。但鲜有人指望这项最后时刻的救助能扭转该行业的结构性问题。
Many farmers cite a widening gap between the Trump administration's rhetoric and the realities they face. Ahead of the elections, Trump held rallies in Iowa, Kansas, Texas and Ohio to shore up support in what had been presumed Republican strongholds. On Oct. 19, Washington issued $8 billion in emergency assistance to help farmers with fuel expenses during the harvest season. But few expect the last-minute relief to reverse the sector's structural problems.
据游说团体美国农场主联合会称，包括棉花、小麦、玉米和大豆在内的九大主要农作物的综合亏损预计将在今年达到 310 亿美元，并在 2027 年扩大至 320 亿美元。美国农业部报告称，美国农场债务总额预计将在今年创下 6240 亿美元的历史新高。
Combined farm losses across nine major crops including cotton, wheat, corn and soybeans are expected to reach $31 billion this year and widen to $32 billion in 2027, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation, a lobbying group. Total U.S. farm debt is projected to hit a record $624 billion this year, the Agriculture Department reports.
对于大豆种植者而言，中国需求的急剧下降留下了一个空洞，临时的贸易休战无法轻易填补。
For soybean growers in particular, the sharp downturn in Chinese demand has left a hole that temporary trade truces cannot easily fill.
中国海关数据显示，在关税争端升级的背景下，中国2025年从美国进口的大豆降至约1680万吨，而2024年为2210万吨。根据一项双边协议，北京承诺每年从美国购买2500万吨大豆，协议期限至2028年，今年采购量有所回升，但市场结构性转变依然存在。
Chinese imports of American soybeans fell to around 16.8 million metric tons in 2025 amid escalating tariff disputes, compared to 22.1 million metric tons in 2024, Chinese customs data shows. Purchases rebounded this year under a bilateral agreement committing Beijing to buy 25 million metric tons from the U.S. annually through 2028, but structural shifts in the market remain.
美国农业部长布鲁克·罗林斯在10月初表示，中国“按计划”履行年度采购承诺。田纳西大学教授安德鲁·穆罕默德表示，美国对华大豆出口今年可能达到60亿美元，是2025年30亿美元的两倍，但仍远低于2024年记录的130亿美元。
U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said in early October that China was "on track" to meet its annual purchase commitment. Andrew Muhammad, a professor at the University of Tennessee, said U.S. soybean exports to China could reach $6 billion this year, double the $3 billion in 2025 but still far below the $13 billion recorded in 2024.
“出口增长了100%。但我们要说清楚：从一个非常低的基数增长100%，并不能让我们回到2024年的水平，”穆罕默德说。
"Exports are up 100%. But let's be clear here: A 100% increase from a very low base does not get us back to where we were in 2024," Muhammad said.
尽管特朗普与中国国家主席习近平在9月举行峰会后，美国对华大豆运输量出现短暂回升，但分析人士预计，北京将继续向巴西和阿根廷等南美供应商多元化采购。中国超过80%的大豆需求依赖进口，主要用于供应其畜牧饲料行业。
Despite a brief uptick in U.S. soybean shipments to China following the September summit between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, analysts expect Beijing to continue diversifying toward South American suppliers such as Brazil and Argentina. China relies on imports for more than 80% of its soybean demand, primarily to supply its livestock feed industry.
中国海关数据显示，2026年前九个月，中国从美国进口的大豆同比下降34%，至1110万吨，而来自巴西的运输量增长3.4%，至6580万吨。
In the first nine months of 2026, China's soybean imports from the U.S. fell 34% from a year earlier to 11.1 million tons, while shipments from Brazil rose 3.4% to 65.8 million tons, Chinese customs data shows.
美国官方数据显示，2026年前八个月，美国对华其他农产品出口（不包括大豆及双边协议未涵盖的产品）总计43亿美元。这不到该期间按比例计算的目标的一半。
Other U.S. agricultural exports to China -- excluding soybeans and products not covered by the bilateral agreement -- totaled $4.3 billion in the first eight months of 2026, official U.S. data shows. That was less than half the prorated target for the period.
贸易动态与中国将在多大程度上影响选民行为，仍是一个悬而未决的问题。
How much trade dynamics with China will influence voting behavior remains an open question.
“现在有太多混杂因素影响美国农业部门，中国只是让他们感到困扰的众多因素之一，”穆罕默德说。因为大多数生产者直接向当地粮食收购站出售，他说，他们对国际贸易的看法往往更多受到政治宣传的影响，而不是他们在资产负债表上看到的情况。
"There are so many confounding factors now affecting the U.S. agricultural sector that China is just one of the many things that are giving them grief," Muhammad said. Because most producers sell directly to local grain elevators, he said, their views of international trade often are shaped more by political messaging than by what they see on their balance sheets.
扎纳尔农业对冲公司（Zaner Ag Hedge）首席市场分析师卡伦·布劳恩说，尽管面临金融逆风，许多生产者仍不愿打破党派阵营投票给民主党。
Karen Braun, chief market analyst at agricultural risk management firm Zaner Ag Hedge, said despite the financial headwinds, many producers remain reluctant to break party ranks and vote Democratic.
“农民不想要替代方案，”她谈及民主党时说。“在他们看来，替代方案只会让他们的生活方式、家庭、价值观以及他们所信仰的一切变得更糟。”斯塔夫斯利恩曾在2016年以民主党候选人身份竞选北达科他州参议院未果，他担心许多陷入困境的农民未能将国家贸易政策与当地经济痛苦联系起来。
"Farmers do not want the alternative," she said of the Democrats. "The alternative, in their mind, is just worse for their lifestyle, their family, their values, everything they believe in." Stafslien, who ran unsuccessfully as a Democratic candidate for the North Dakota state Senate in 2016, worries that many struggling farmers are failing to connect national trade policy with their local economic pain.
“我希望更多人关注不同行政当局行动的政治影响，然后让他们投票支持的人承担责任，”他说，“而不是一如既往地投票。”
"I wish more people would pay attention to the political ramifications of actions of different administrations and then hold the people they vote for accountable," he said, "rather than voting the way they always have."