农民是共和党的关键投票群体，但他们的选票可能岌岌可危——伊朗战争以及特朗普总统的关税和贸易战推高了生产成本，也推高了柴油和化肥价格。特朗普政府一直在为农民推出财政援助方案和项目，希望在下一周的中期选举中巩固这一选民群体。然而，他们对这一投票群体的投票率感到担忧或许是有道理的。“是的，我认为他们很紧张。是的，我认为他们应该紧张，而且是的，我认为农民们相当恼火，”明尼苏达州前共和党参议院多数党领袖艾米·弗雷德里克森说。
Farmers are a key voting group for Republicans, but their votes could be on the line, with the Iran war and President Trump’s tariff and trade wars driving up production costs along with diesel and fertilizer prices. The Trump administration has been rolling out financial assistance packages and projects for farmers in hopes of shoring up the electorate in next week’s midterm elections. Yet they may be right to be anxious about the voting bloc’s turnout. “Yes, I think they’re nervous. Yes, I think they should be, and yes, I think that farmers are pretty ticked off,” said Amy Frederiksen, a former Minnesota Republican Senate majority leader.
弗雷德里克森说，农民“不想投票支持民主党的那一堆胡闹”。“他们想投给共和党，但这是他们的生意，这是他们的家庭，而似乎没有人在倾听，”她说。在俄亥俄州、艾奥瓦州、堪萨斯州和内布拉斯加州等农业州，共和党众议员和参议员候选人在本次中期选举季面临着出乎意料的激烈选情。一些人已向特朗普政府和国会施压，要求解决农民成本上升的问题。
Frederiksen said farmers “don’t want to vote for a lot of the Democrats’ nonsense.”“They want to vote for Republicans, but this is their business, these are their families, and it doesn’t appear that anyone’s listening,” she said. Republican House and Senate candidates in farm states like Ohio, Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska are facing unexpectedly tight races this midterm season. Some have pressured the Trump administration and Congress to address the rising costs for farmers.
特朗普在2024年赢得了69%的农村选票，但近期民调显示，这一投票群体对选举以来他们在特朗普治下的境遇并不满意。“这必然反映了关税、投入成本、食品成本、市场被封锁以及柴油和汽油价格，”弗雷德里克森说。凯撒家庭基金会与美联社的一项民调发现，大约十分之六的农村选民不认可特朗普处理经济的方式，这一群体绝大多数将生活成本列为他们最希望候选人谈论的首要议题。
Trump won 69 percent of the rural vote in 2024, but recent polls have shown that the voting group is not happy with how they’ve fared under Trump since the election. “It has to be a reflection of tariffs, input costs, food costs, markets being barred, and diesel and gas prices,” Frederiksen said. A poll from KFF and The Associated Press found that roughly 6 in 10 rural voters disapprove of how Trump is handling the economy, and the group overwhelmingly named the cost of living as the top issue they want a candidate to talk about.
在持续的伊朗战争背景下，农民正艰难应对价格问题。柴油平均价格约为每加仑6.35美元，化肥成本也已上涨。美国农业事务联合会4月发布的一项调查发现，94%的人表示他们的财务状况较去年恶化或保持不变。
Farmers are struggling with prices amid the ongoing Iran war. The average price of diesel per gallon is roughly $6.35, and fertilizer costs have also risen. Ninety-four percent said their financial situation has worsened or remained the same from last year, a survey released by the American Farm Bureau Federation in April found.
尽管如此，KFF/美联社的民调显示，农村地区的共和党选民仍然更信任共和党来处理医疗保健和生活成本等问题，这意味着共和党选民下周更有可能不去投票，而不是转投民主党。“我认为会有一些人投票给民主党候选人，但我也听到不少人告诉我，他们就是觉得自己在这次选举中无法支持任何人，这很遗憾，”堪萨斯农民联盟主任尼克·莱文多夫斯基说。
Still, the KFF/AP poll shows that rural Republican voters still trust the GOP more to handle issues like healthcare and the cost of living, meaning it’s more likely Republican voters might skip the polls next week instead of voting Democrat. “I think you’ll see some poll to Democratic candidates, but I also heard a number of people tell me that they just don’t feel like they can support anybody in this election, and that’s a shame,” said Nick Levendofsky, director of the Kansas Farmers Union.
农村政策专家、《土地富饶，现金匮乏》一书作者布莱恩·赖辛格表示，这次选举将是“对共和党在美国农村地位的迄今最大考验”。“存在的风险是，农场社区和其他农村社区是会以同样的水平出来投票，还是会待在家里，而一些边缘群体最终愿意投票给一个他们认为在为他们争取利益的蓝领民主党人，”赖辛格说。“我们不会看到所有这些转变——共和党对农村地区的控制——完全逆转，”他继续说道。
Brian Reisinger, a rural policy expert and author of “Land Rich, Cash Poor,” said this election will be “the biggest test yet of the Republican Party’s standing in rural America.”“The risk that exists is whether farm communities and other rural communities turn out at the same level or whether they stay home, and some folks at the margins end up willing to vote for a blue-collar Democrat who they think is fighting for them,” Reisinger said. “We’re not going to see all that shift toward Republican control of rural areas completely reverse,” he continued.
“但我们会看到它下滑吗？有可能。我们会看到其中一些人愿意投票给一个感觉来自他们选区、能理解他们经济挫折感的民主党人吗？有可能。这些事情发生的程度足以影响选举走向吗？绝对有可能。”特朗普上周在堪萨斯州为共和党参议员罗杰·马歇尔站台时宣布了一项80亿美元的“丰收燃料救助计划”，告诉人群该计划将“抵消本收获季的柴油成本”。
“But will we see it slump? Possibly. Will we see some of them willing to vote for a Democrat who feels like they’re from their district and connect with their economic frustrations? Possibly. Could those things happen enough to impact the direction of the election? Absolutely.”Trump announced an $8 billion Harvest Fuel Relief Program last week while stumping for Republican Sen. Roger Marshall in Kansas, telling the crowd that it will “offset diesel costs during this harvest season.”
农业部的一份新闻稿称，这笔80亿美元的资金将用于向农民发放一次性补贴。副总统万斯上周在内布拉斯加州宣布向国内化肥厂投资13亿美元，其中两座工厂计划建在这个“玉米壳州”。特朗普还承诺，如果马歇尔在堪萨斯州连任，将允许全年销售E15——一种混合了15%乙醇的燃料——而不是在夏季受到限制。
The $8 billion fund will be available for one-time payments to farmers, a release from the Agriculture Department said. Vice President Vance in Nebraska last week announced a $1.3 billion investment in domestic fertilizer plants, with two plants planned for the Cornhusker State. And Trump has promised the sale of E15 — fuel blended with 15 percent ethanol — year-round instead of being restricted during the summer if Marshall is reelected in Kansas.
这也是艾奥瓦州的一个重大问题，该州州长和参议院席位竞争激烈。这一切都发生在其他农业承诺之后，比如签署了一项行政命令，以增加红染柴油的供应——红染柴油是一种添加了红色染料的柴油，用以表明其免税。这种柴油通常用于农业和建筑设备。但这些承诺几乎没有平息农民的恐惧和愤怒。“就我个人而言，我认为这太少也太迟了。他们早就应该采取一些救助措施了，”莱文多夫斯基说。
It’s also a major issue in Iowa, home to close races for governor and Senate. This all came after other agriculture promises, like an executive order signed to increase the availability of red-dyed diesel — a diesel with red dye added to show that it’s tax exempt. It’s typically used by farm and construction equipment. But the promises have done little to quell farmers’ fears and anger. “Personally, I think it’s too little, too late. They should have been doing something as far as relief a long time ago,” Levendofsky said.
“我认为这是他们最后的孤注一掷……试图在选举前拉拢一些选票。说实话，我不知道这对他们是否有任何好处。”艾伦·莱曼是波尔克县第五代农民，也是艾奥瓦农民联盟的主席。他在一份声明中说，“这种孤注一掷的传球，试图修复他的政策造成的问题，很好地说明了为什么艾奥瓦农民联盟决定支持所有五名竞选美国参议院和众议院艾奥瓦州代表席位的民主党人。”
“I think it’s their last-ditch Hail Mary … to try to pull in some votes ahead of the election. And I don’t know if it’s going to do them any good, to be honest.”Aaron Lehman, a fifth-generation Polk County farmer and president of the Iowa Farmers Union, said in a statement that the “Hail Mary pass to fix a problem his policies created is a good example of why the Iowa Farmers Union made the decision to endorse all five Democrats running to represent Iowans in the US Senate and House of Representatives.”
“农民们根本就不应该被置于这种境地。现在，在选举前两周才做出这种权宜之计，并不能解决问题，”莱曼说。总部位于内布拉斯加州的Bullhorn Communications创始合伙人瑞安·霍恩预测，通常在中选中投票的共和党选民会出现在投票站，但他也表示，特朗普政府的这些宣布“可能不会改变大多数选民的决定因素”。
“Farmers never should have been put in this position. A Band-Aid response now, 2 weeks before the election, doesn’t fix the problem,” Lehman said. Ryan Horn, founding partner of Nebraska-based Bullhorn Communications, predicted that Republican voters who typically vote in the midterms will show up at the polls but also said the announcements by the Trump administration “probably won’t change the decision points for most voters.”
白宫为特朗普的宣布进行了辩护。“农民们在[前总统]乔·拜登的领导下受苦多年，他将美国的贸易逆差增加到超过1.2万亿美元，提高了投入成本，并推行了觉醒的DEI[多元化、公平和包容]农业政策，”白宫首席副新闻秘书安娜·凯利在一份声明中说。
The White House defended Trump’s announcements. “Farmers suffered for years under [former President] Joe Biden, who increased the United States’ trade deficit to over $1.2 trillion, raised input costs, and pushed woke DEI [diversity, equity and inclusion] agricultural policies,” Anna Kelly, White House principal deputy press secretary, said in a statement.
“相比之下，特朗普总统正在通过谈判新的贸易协议、降低投入成本、加强农业安全网、将遗产税免税额提高一倍、取消农村财产贷款利息税、设立农村机会区等方式帮助我们的农业产业，”她继续说道。尽管如此，赖辛格表示，候选人应着重将自身政策与农村社区的长期和短期需求联系起来。“我认为，任何不感到紧张的人，任何把农村选票视为理所当然的人，都会发现它比我们想象的更加独立、更加难以预测，”他说。
“In contrast, President Trump is helping our agriculture industry by negotiating new trade deals, lowering input costs, bolstering the farm safety net, doubling the death tax exemption, ending taxes on rural property loan interest, creating rural opportunity zones, and more,” she continued. Still, Reisinger said, candidates should focus on connecting their policies to the long- and short-term needs of the rural communities. “I think that anybody who isn’t nervous, anybody who takes the rural vote for granted, is going to find that it is a lot more independent and unpredictable than we think,” he said.
“它当然是稳固的红色、稳固的保守，但农村选票愿意投出来的程度有多大，以及民主党人能在边缘拉走多少农村选票，这一切都归结为：你是否认真对待农村选民，你是否确保自己没有把他们视为理所当然？”他补充道。
“It’s certainly solidly red and solidly conservative, but how much that rural vote is willing to turn out, and how much of that rural vote can maybe get peeled off a little bit at the margins by Democrats, all of that comes down to: Are you taking rural voters seriously and are you making sure you’re not taking them for granted?” he added.