我通过两位熟悉特朗普的人士听说，唐纳德·特朗普正在“失去理智”。其中一人将其评为较低程度——有点尴尬——另一人则称这是宪法问题，但我看不到任何变化。他参加集会时总是漫无边际地讲话。这就是我们观看的原因。
I have heard via two sources, both familiar with the Prez, that Donald Trump is losing his marbles. One ranks it at the lower end of the scale – bit embarrassing – the other calls it a constitutional matter, but I see no change. He always rambled at rallies. It’s why we watch.
在这场中期选举（周二投票）中，一个受欢迎的主题是男性身材，无论是他的国务卿（“书呆子”），卡塔尔埃米尔（“年轻”且“英俊”），还是俄亥俄州参议员约翰·赫斯泰德，他拥有“一屁股……像一堆肌肉”——特朗普通过指出女说唱歌手妮琪·米娜也拥有“漂亮的屁股”，来转移人们对他“变同性恋”的担忧。
A favourite theme in these midterm elections (voting on Tuesday) is the male form, be it his secretary of state (“nerdy”), Emir of Qatar (“young” and “handsome”) or Ohio Senator Jon Husted, who has “an ass... like a pile of muscle” – Trump deflecting fears he’s gone gay by noting that Nicki Minaj, a lady rapper, has a “beautiful ass” too.
密西西比州的一名抗议者告诉他，要把新的白宫舞厅“塞进他自己的肥屁股”。先生，这是不可能的，因为，引用其建筑师的话，那里有“五英寸厚的玻璃窗[并且]除了榴弹炮之外任何东西都无法穿透”。特朗普显然直觉到，这个政权即将结束。他在潜意识里正在建造一个掩体。
A protestor in Mississippi told him to “shove” the new White House ballroom up his own “fat ass”. This, sir, would be impossible because, to quote its architect, it has “five inch thick glass windows [and] is impenetrable by anything other than a howitzer”. Trump clearly intuits that the regime is coming to an end. He is subconsciously building a bunker.
如果共和党失去众议院和参议院，他们会把责任归咎于在任者的劣势，但这纯属胡说。他们已经将众议院划分为对自己有利的选区；他们还从大科技公司筹集了大量竞选资金。此外，大部分即将争夺的参议院席位本应是稳固的保守派：共和党在德克萨斯州或俄亥俄州，甚至堪萨斯州为生存而战，这一事实本身就是对该政府的谴责。
If the Republicans lose both the house and the senate, they’ll pin it on incumbent disadvantage, but this is hooey. They gerrymandered the House in their favour; they’ve raised vast sums of money from big-tech for the campaign. Plus most of the senate seats up for grabs ought to be safely conservative: the very fact that the GOP is fighting for survival in Texas or Ohio, or even worried about Kansas, is an indictment of the administration.
特朗普做了很多好事，移民减少，经济强劲增长，但生活成本依然高企，选民的愤怒最终指向白宫。以德克萨斯州为例，民主党在那里看到了30年来首次赢得参议院席位的希望。该州是其自身成功的受害者，正处于重演加利福尼亚悲剧的边缘：亲商政权吸引外来者，新来者想要良好的公共服务，于是他们投票给民主党，毁掉了他们的新家园。
Trump has done much good, with lower immigration and strong growth, but the cost of living remains high and voter anger leads back to the White House. Take Texas, where the Democrats spy a Senate win for the first time in 30 years. The state is a victim of its own success, on the cusp of repeating the tragedy of California: a business-friendly regime attracts outsiders, the arrivals want good services, so they vote Democrat and ruin their new home.
但特朗普也分裂了乡村俱乐部式的德州共和党，而农村选民对特朗普支持的政策（如数据中心和学校券）感到愤怒。此外，伊朗冲突被指责推高了物价，尽管不发动愚蠢的海外战争是特朗普当选时承诺不做的唯一一件事。反战保守派担心他们的国王已经疯了。
But Trump has also split the country club Texas GOP, while rural voters are angry about Trump-backed policies such as data centres and school vouchers. Moreover, the conflict in Iran is blamed for driving up prices, even though starting idiotic foreign wars is the one thing Trump was elected not to do. Anti-war conservatives fear their king has gone mad.
他们错了。这就是特朗普的本来面目。他一直就是这样。当他的陛下在2015年乘坐金色电梯下降，开启第一次竞选时，他承诺要“阻止伊朗获得核武器”，称巴拉克·奥巴马的核协议为“灾难”，并警告说，如果德黑兰不被削弱，以色列将面临毁灭。
They are wrong. This is who Trump is. It is who he always was. When his majesty floated down that golden escalator in 2015 to launch his first campaign, he promised to “stop Iran getting nuclear weapons”, called Barack Obama’s nuclear deal a “disaster” and warned that Israel faced annihilation if Tehran wasn’t clipped.
他的伊朗恐惧症被关于墨西哥和伊拉克的嘲讽所掩盖，伊拉克战争他碰巧不喜欢，且当时最受公众关注。因此，在当时的背景下，特朗普看起来像个革命者——他的选举颠覆了政治。
His Iranophobia was overshadowed by jibes about Mexico and Iraq, a war he happened to dislike and was foremost in the public mind. In the context of the time, therefore, Trump appeared revolutionary – and his election turned politics upside down.
特朗普拥抱了人工智能和网络寡头。但，如同英国脱欧一样，真正的挑战不在于胜利，而在于胜利后做什么，而特朗普浪费了创建一个亲工人保守派运动的机会，该运动本可将“永恒战争”的资金用于帮助穷人。他抵制公开爱泼斯坦档案。他拥抱了人工智能和网络寡头。乌克兰战争仍在继续。特朗普曾与卡车司机工会调情，却打击工会，甚至推迟了保护矿工免受尘肺病侵害的法规。薪资增长被通货膨胀吞噬。
Trump has embraced AI and the online oligarchs But, like Brexit, the real challenge wasn’t victory but what you do with it, and Trump has frittered away a chance to create a pro-worker conservative movement that takes cash from Forever Wars to spend it on the poor. He resisted releasing the Epstein files. He has embraced AI and the online oligarchs. The Ukraine war continues. Trump, who flirted with the Teamsters, has busted unions, even delayed regulations to protect mineworkers from black lung. Pay increases have been devoured by inflation.
事实上，很难将特朗普与乔治·W·布什政府区分开来，后者正在一个愚蠢的穆斯林世界战争中，走向另一场不体面的结局——这让人不禁想到，如同英国屈辱地回归欧盟（狗遇呕吐物）一样，在我们这个晚期民主、僵化的体制中，变革是否不可能，这个体制由一群拒绝退休的半糊涂的婴儿潮一代主导。或者，当人们回想起镀金时代的贪婪和虚伪时，也许事情一直如此？
In fact it’s a struggle to distinguish Trump from the administration of George W Bush, dribbling to another undignified end with a dumb war in the Muslim world – making one wonder, as with Britain’s humiliating return to the EU (dog meet vomit) if change is impossible in our late-democratic, sclerotic system, dominated by half-addled boomers who refuse to retire. Or maybe, when one thinks back to the greed and hypocrisy of the Gilded Age, ’twas ever thus?
无论如何，接下来将是更多停滞。即使民主党控制的众议院提出弹劾条款，由民主党控制的参议院也缺乏三分之二多数票来定罪，特朗普将得以留在白宫。但他将成为一座金叶笼中的囚徒，被传票和听证会淹没，我们都怀疑，这些传票和听证会将暴露一个充斥着权钱交易腐败的政府。尽管特朗普试图打破大科技垄断，但他通过推广加密货币已赚取超过10亿美元。
Either way, more stasis follows. Even if the Democratic House moves articles of impeachment, a Democratic-controlled Senate will lack the two-thirds majority to convict, allowing Trump to stay in the White House. But he’ll become a prisoner in a gold-leaf cage, inundated with subpoenas and hearings that, we all suspect, will expose an administration dripping in pay-to-play corruption. The President, though he has tried to break big tech monopolies, has made more than $1bn out of promoting crypto.
欧洲民粹主义者或许能免受波及：我们的右翼已形成与特朗普不同的个性，并将继续凭借移民和骚乱取胜。但美国是罗马，帝国仰望其领导。如果特朗普再次发动战争（他将坚称自己保留这一权力），世界经济将进一步下滑。如果他继续损害本党声誉，像JD·万斯或马可·鲁比奥这样的王公贵族将在2028年竞选中因关联而蒙上污名。
European populists might be insulated from the fallout: our Right has developed a personality distinct from Trump and will continue to win thanks to immigration and riots. But America is Rome, and the empire looks to it for leadership. If Trump lashes out with yet more war (an authority he’ll insist he retains), the world’s economy will slump further. If he continues to damage the reputation of his party, princelings such as JD Vance or Marco Rubio will enter the 2028 race tarred by association.
未来可能出现的民主党将是激进的。在德克萨斯州，过去的民主党人至少还假装保守，而参议院候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科公开支持堕胎和更宽松的移民政策，并将上帝称为“非二元性别”。共和党人称他为“塔拉弗里科”。他的对手称他“缺乏德克萨斯所需的男性气概”，这是对他男性气概的嘲讽。
And the Democratic Party likely to emerge will be radical. In Texas, where past Democrats at least pretended to be conservative, the senatorial contender – James Talarico – is openly for abortion and easier immigration, and has dubbed God “non-binary”. Republicans call him Talafreako. His opponent labels him “too low-T for Texas”, a jab at his masculinity.
这是特朗普的经典伎俩，也是当代共和党人一切糟糕之处的体现。操场上最令人悲伤的事，就是看着男孩们模仿霸凌者，并把自己变成笑柄。在俄亥俄州，维韦克·拉马斯瓦米——一个滔滔不绝的保守主义者，说话像播客要点——制作了一则广告，其中他的对手、民主党人埃米·阿克顿的母亲称阿克顿说谎。那个谎言的性质是什么？她的继父在她童年时强奸了她，而他逃离该州从未面临指控——她的母亲随他一同离开。
It’s a classic Trump tactic and everything abysmal about contemporary Republicans. The saddest thing in the playground is watching boys imitate the bully, and turn themselves into an object of ridicule. In Ohio, Vivek Ramaswamy – a glib conservative who talks in podcaster bullet points – cut an ad that features the mother of his opponent, Democrat Amy Acton, calling Acton a liar. The nature of that lie? That her stepfather raped her when she was a child, a charge he never had to face as he fled the state – the mother going with him.
恶劣，下流的东西。拉马斯瓦米提出此事，看起来像个怪物，而对塔拉里科的攻击——他古怪，但虔诚——简直像踢小狗一样讨厌，尤其是来自一名此前因欺诈和贿赂被起诉的共和党候选人（他否认所有指控）。特朗普可能仍有良好的时机，正如屁股笑话所暗示的，还有一个不被欣赏的自嘲源泉，但那个跟上他的革命并试图将其据为己有的政党，把幽默与残忍混淆了。它讲着糟糕的笑话。
Nasty, gutter stuff. Ramaswamy looks like a monster for raising it, much as the attacks on Talarico – an odd man but sincerely religious – have all the charm of kicking a puppy, doubly so from a Republican candidate previously indicted for fraud and bribery (he denies it all). Trump might retain good timing and, as the ass jokes hint, an unappreciated well of self-deprecation, but the party that caught up with his revolution, and tried to capture it, confuses humour with cruelty. It tells bad jokes.
美国右翼太多人有钱却没品位，在身上纹耶稣却从未读过《登山宝训》。如果他们真的大败，我怀疑，也希望，这将成为文化战争的转折点。不是觉醒左翼的胜利，而是对残酷右翼的拒绝——任何英国保守派如果想玩“攻击人而非议题”的把戏，都应该研究一下。
Too many on the American Right have money but no class, tattoo themselves in Jesus but never read the Sermon on the Mount. If they do lose big, it will – I suspect, I hope – be a turning point in the culture war. Not a victory for the woke Left but a rejection of the brutal Right – one that any British conservatives tempted to play the man rather than the ball should study.