China’s two largest carmakers, BYD and Geely Auto, recorded their strongest monthly sales of the year in October, bucking a downward trend in the world’s largest automotive market as smaller rivals come under increasing pressure to turn a profit.

Shenzhen-based electric vehicle (EV) giant BYD handed over 490,168 cars to customers at home and abroad last month, up 11 per cent year on year, while Hangzhou-headquartered Geely delivered 310,183 petrol and electric cars worldwide in the same period, up 1 per cent from a year earlier, according to company statements.

“Top players, banking on their new models and advantages in cost and technology, showed their resilience in sales,” said Gao Shen, an independent analyst in Shanghai. “Their sales rises have ratcheted up pressure on weak carmakers that are struggling to survive [in a fiercely competitive] domestic market.”To offset weak demand at home, both BYD and Geely accelerated their go-global drives this year.

BYD sold 170,194 EVs in October, up 102.8 per cent from a year earlier. In the first 10 months of 2026, the company’s exports surged 93.8 per cent year on year.

Geely delivered 107,153 petrol and electric cars last month, up 157.8 per cent year on year. Its exports from January to October jumped 167.9 per cent year on year.

Several other leading Chinese carmakers reported sizzling sales in October – a fresh sign that consolidation in the country’s automotive sector was becoming firmly entrenched, analysts said.

Guangzhou-based EV assembler Xpeng handed over 50,237 cars worldwide last month, up 19.6 per cent from a year earlier and surpassing its previous monthly record of 42,013 units set in October 2025.

Chery Group, headquartered in central China’s Anhui province, reported a year-on-year sales growth of 5.3 per cent, with monthly deliveries reaching a 2026 high of 295,934 vehicles.

October sales numbers for the mainland’s overall car market have yet to be published by the China Passenger Car Association.

Domestic vehicle sales in the first nine months of 2026, however, slumped 21.7 per cent from the same period a year earlier to 15.3 million units, the government-backed industry consortium reported earlier.

In June, Stephen Dyer, Asia-Pacific region leader of automotive and industrial practice at financial advisory firm AlixPartners, predicted that only seven of mainland China’s 30 EV-focused carmakers would break even by 2030, with smaller or weaker players likely to exit the market or be acquired by rivals.

“Profitability is no longer driven by scale, but increasingly by how efficiently companies are organised, how quickly they adapt product cycles, and how effectively they integrate design, engineering and commercialisation,” Dyer said.

“We expect a widening gap between winners and the rest of the industry, with consolidation becoming a structural outcome rather than a cyclical one.”Deutsche Bank said in January that passenger vehicle sales in China would fall 5 per cent this year, while UBS projected a 2 per cent fall, citing overcapacity and reduced government support.

Despite the challenging outlook for some Chinese carmakers, the country’s intelligent vehicles – fitted with entry-level autonomous driving technology – still had significant untapped potential in the robotaxi market, according to a report released by Morgan Stanley on Sunday.

The US bank forecast that 1 million self-driving cabs could be offering taxi services to mainland consumers by 2035.

“China’s robotaxi industry has been constrained by elusive permits and sensor costs, but now it’s nearing an inflection point in scale and profitability, with well-capitalised players operating thousand-vehicle driverless fleets on recurring fares, enabled by artificial intelligence software and hardware deflation,” said analysts led by Tim Hsiao, head of the Greater China auto and shared mobility research team at Morgan Stanley.