惠誉评级周一表示，强劲的出口正在支撑中国汽车行业对抗疲软的国内需求，尽管监管变化和利润率受挤压将限制2027年的前景。
Robust exports are supporting China's car industry against weak domestic demand, though regulatory shifts and squeezed profitability will limit the 2027 outlook, Fitch Ratings said Monday.
这家信用评级机构预计，2026年中国乘用车零售量将下降约20%，随后在明年因产品升级和新能源汽车（NEV）购置税减免即将到期前的抢购潮助力需求，将出现温和的个位数低位复苏。
The credit rating agency projected local passenger-car retail volume to drop about 20% in 2026, before a mild low-single-digit recovery next year as product upgrades and accelerated new-energy vehicle (NEV) purchases ahead of the tax-rebate expiration assist demand.
报告称，2026年第三季度国内乘用车零售交付量同比下降24.5%，而批发交付量下降5.8%。
Domestic passenger-car retail deliveries dropped 24.5% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026, while wholesale deliveries decreased 5.8%, according to the report.
报告补充称，人工智能（AI）应用普及和新能源汽车市场渗透率达到65.8%，而燃油车需求持续受抑。报告指出，出口仍是中国汽车行业的主要增长动力。
Artificial intelligence (AI) adoption and NEV market penetration reached 65.8% as demand for internal combustion engine models stayed suppressed, it added. Exports remained the primary growth driver for the country's automotive sector, it said.
评级机构报告称，今年第三季度乘用车出口同比激增72%，达到创纪录的270万辆，其中新能源汽车占海外总交付量的59%。
Passenger-car exports surged 72% from a year ago to a record 2.7 million units in the third quarter of this year, with NEVs representing 59% of total overseas deliveries, the rating agency reported.
惠誉预计，随着车企在监管调整前加速发货，未来一两个季度海外汽车交付将保持强劲。
Fitch expected auto deliveries overseas to remain strong over the next one or two quarters as carmakers accelerate shipments prior to regulatory adjustments.
该机构指出，由于欧盟可能从2026年底起对中国产混合动力汽车实施进口配额，以及中国从2027年4月起将新能源汽车出口增值税退税率从13%降至9%，明年出口增速预计将大幅放缓。
Export growth is projected to decelerate significantly next year owing to potential EU import quotas on Chinese-built hybrids starting in late 2026 and a reduction in China's NEV export VAT rebate to 9% from 13% beginning April 2027, the agency indicated.
报告补充称，新兴经济体需求上升和欧洲产能扩张预计将缓冲负面影响。
Rising demand from emerging economies and expanding European manufacturing capacity are projected to cushion the negative impact, it added.
惠誉报告称，行业财务利润率依然脆弱，1月至9月中国汽车制造业营业利润同比下降23%。
The industry's financial margins remain fragile, with operating profit across China's auto manufacturing declining 23% on an annual basis from January to September, Fitch reported.
报告显示，前九个月行业营业利润率收窄至3.3%，9月单月更跌至1.4%。
The industry's operating margin shrank to 3.3% during the nine-month span and fell to 1.4% in September, the report showed.