共和党正在最后关头投入数千万美元广告费，试图挽救三位来自红州的参议员，共和党方面称这些参议员无视了数月来关于其竞选活动陷入危险的警告。
Republicans are burning tens of millions of last-minute ad dollars to try to rescue three red-state senators who they say ignored months of warnings that their campaigns were in danger.
为何重要：堪萨斯州、南卡罗来纳州和密西西比州的参议院竞选通常是共和党的轻松胜局。今年，共和党不得不从摇摆州的战场抽调资源来防守这些席位。
Why it matters: Senate races in Kansas, South Carolina and Mississippi are normally GOP layups. This year, Republicans have diverted resources from swing-state battles to defend them.
- 对参议员罗杰·马歇尔（堪萨斯州）、达琳·格雷厄姆（南卡罗来纳州）和辛迪·海德-史密斯（密西西比州）的不满，正值民调显示全国范围内出现针对特朗普总统的反弹之际，共和党内部相互指责愈演愈烈。
• The frustration with Sens. Roger Marshall (Kansas), Darline Graham (South Carolina) and Cindy Hyde-Smith (Mississippi) comes amid broader GOP finger-pointing as polls show a nationwide backlash against President Trump.
- “民主党人可能会在一波浪潮中赢得这些席位……但这不是蓝色浪潮。这是傲慢和懒惰的浪潮……冲刷过这些共和党现任议员，让他们自以为刀枪不入，”一位参与多场关键参议院竞选的全国共和党操盘手表示。
• "Democrats may win these seats in a wave ... but not a blue wave. It's the wave of arrogance [and] laziness ... that washed over these GOP incumbents and made them think they were invincible," said a national GOP operative involved in several key Senate races.
数字解读：据数据统计，全国共和党在堪萨斯州投入3300万美元，在南卡罗来纳州投入2100万美元，在密西西比州投入240万美元。• 特朗普也在所有三个州投入了宝贵的竞选时间。
By the numbers: National Republicans have spent $33 million in Kansas, $21 million in South Carolina and $2.4 million in Mississippi, according to data • Trump also has spent valuable campaign time in all three states.
幕后情况：共和党人士称，这三位参议员无视了筹集更多资金和建立更强大竞选运营体系的警告。
Behind the scenes: Republicans say the three senators ignored warnings to raise more money and build stronger campaign operations.
- 全国共和党参议员委员会主席蒂姆·斯科特于2025年2月警告所有共和党参议员：“我们不需要在本不该有竞争的地方花费时间和金钱。”
• National Republican Senatorial Committee chair Tim Scott warned all GOP senators in February 2025: "We do not need to spend time and money in places where races should not be competitive."
- 特朗普的政治运营团队也警告共和党参议员，他们需要承担起自己的责任。
• Trump's political operation also warned Senate Republicans that they would need to pull their own weight.
怨声载道的焦点集中在马歇尔身上，他仅筹集了750万美元，而其民主党对手亚当·汉密尔顿筹集了1900万美元。
The most complaints center on Marshall, who has raised just $7.5 million compared with $19 million for his Democratic opponent, Adam Hamilton.
- 共和党指责他与银行业和信用卡行业——主要共和党捐赠者——关系紧张，且缺乏对K街（游说行业代称）的联络。
• Republicans blame his strained relationship with the banking and credit card industries — major GOP donors — and a lack of outreach to K Street.
- 共和党人将马歇尔的竞选活动形容为过度自信。大约一个月前，他的团队曾向其他共和党参议员的助手表示，一旦公布针对汉密尔顿的反对党调查材料，这场竞选将在10天内基本结束。但事实并非如此。
• Republicans describe Marshall's campaign as overconfident. About a month ago, his team told aides to other GOP senators that the race would be effectively over within 10 days once it released opposition research on Hamilton. It wasn't.
- 战略人士将马歇尔疲软的竞选运作归咎于幕僚长布伦特·罗伯逊。该竞选团队直到最近才将资深特朗普操盘手克里斯·格兰特纳入其中，作为最后关头救援努力的一部分。
• Strategists blame chief of staff Brent Robertson for Marshall's weak campaign operation. The campaign only recently tapped veteran Trump operative Chris Grant as part of a last-minute rescue effort.
- 最近被聘来协助马歇尔的另一位资深战略人士亚历克斯·德格拉斯指出，全国民主党人投入了数百万美元，并表示该参议员已经在“堪萨斯州全部105个县进行了数百次走访”，并继续“为堪萨斯州人民努力工作”。
• Alex DeGrasse, another veteran strategist recently hired to help Marshall, pointed to millions in spending by national Democrats and said the senator has made "hundreds of stops across all 105 counties in Kansas" and continues to "work hard for the people of Kansas."
在密西西比州，共和党人长期以来一直认为海德-史密斯是一名政治表现不佳的候选人。2020年，她的得票率比特朗普落后6个百分点。
In Mississippi, Republicans have long viewed Hyde-Smith as a political underperformer. In 2020, she ran six points behind Trump.
- 尽管接到警告称包括乔治·索罗斯和亚历克斯·索罗斯在内的民主党超级捐款人正准备投入巨资反对她，她却仅筹集了650万美元。民主党团体已向该竞选投入了1370万美元。
• She has raised just $6.5 million despite warnings that Democratic megadonors, including George and Alex Soros, were preparing to spend heavily against her. Democratic groups have poured $13.7 million into the race.
- 共和党人还指责海德-史密斯举办的竞选活动过少，且低估了她的民主党对手、地区检察官斯科特·科洛姆。
• Republicans also fault Hyde-Smith for holding too few campaign events and underestimating her Democratic opponent, district attorney Scott Colom.
- 海德-史密斯竞选团队未回应置评请求。
• Hyde-Smith's campaign did not respond to a request for comment.
在南卡罗来纳州，共和党人指责格雷厄姆未能利用其已故兄弟林赛·格雷厄姆的捐款人网络，并且对拉赞助表现出很少的兴趣。
In South Carolina, Republicans fault Graham for failing to tap her late brother Lindsey Graham's donor network and showing little interest in soliciting contributions.
- 在10月的前两周，民主党人安妮·安德鲁斯的筹款额以420万美元对57万美元超过了格雷厄姆。
• In the first two weeks of October, Democrat Annie Andrews outraised Graham $4.2 million to $570,000.
- 格雷厄姆发言人T·W·阿里吉表示，该参议员“自从三个月前失去兄弟以来，面临着前所未有的逆风，并从容迎接了挑战”。
• Graham spokesperson T.W. Arrighi said the senator "has faced unprecedented headwinds since losing her brother three months ago, and has risen to the occasion."
一些共和党人对格雷厄姆表示同情，她是一位在兄弟去世后被推入参议院的政治新手，面临着一场残酷的初选且几乎没有时间进行竞选。他们将特朗普敦促她参选归咎于此。
Some Republicans are sympathetic to Graham, a political novice thrust into the Senate after her brother's death who faced a grueling primary and little time to campaign. They blame Trump for pushing her to run.
然而：共和党人指出，爱达荷州参议员吉姆·里施（Jim Risch）就是一个认真对待政治环境的现任议员的例子，他的竞选没有动用全国共和党组织的任何资金。
Yes, but: Republicans point to Idaho Sen. Jim Risch, whose campaign required no spending from national GOP groups, as an example of an incumbent who took the political environment seriously.
各方表态：全国共和党参议院委员会（NRSC）以及支持共和党的超级政治行动委员会“参议院领导层基金”（Senate Leadership Fund）的代表没有回应置评请求。
What they're saying: Representatives for the NRSC and the pro-GOP Senate Leadership Fund super PAC didn't respond to requests for comment.
下一步：高级共和党人表示，该党需要在2028年重新思考如何应对自满的现任议员，并明确表示其竞选组织不能被当作慈善机构对待。
What's next: Top Republicans say the party needs to rethink how it deals with complacent incumbents in 2028 — and make clear that its campaign organizations can't be treated like a charity.