伦敦/东京,11月2日 —— 周一公布的调查显示,10月全球制造业活动保持稳健,但工厂日益显露出因能源成本上升而承受的压力,供应链中断挤压了利润空间。
LONDON/TOKYO, Nov 2 - Global manufacturing activity remained solid in October but factories are increasingly showing strain from rising energy costs while supply-chain disruptions squeezed margins, surveys showed on Monday.
数据表明,随着中东长期冲突推高燃料和食品价格,冲击消费和商业信心,出口导向型经济体面临的痛苦正在加剧。
The data point to growing pain for export-led economies as prolonged conflict in the Middle East keeps fuel and food prices high, hitting consumption and business confidence.
标普全球的欧元区制造业采购经理指数(PMI)上月降至52.7,低于9月的52.9 —— 后者为自2022年5月以来的最高读数 —— 但高于初值52.4。读数高于50.0表明活动扩张。
S&P Global's Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) eased to 52.7 last month from 52.9 in September — which was the highest reading since May 2022 — but was above a preliminary estimate of 52.4. Readings above 50.0 indicate growth in activity.
这表明制造商尽管面临关税、冲突和能源成本飙升,仍在支撑,但投入价格上涨增加了欧洲央行再次加息的压力。
This suggests manufacturers are holding up despite tariffs, conflicts and surging energy costs, but rising input prices add to pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates again.
牛津经济研究院的Leo Barincou表示:“10月最终制造业PMI确认了欧元区工业部门的韧性。”
"October’s final manufacturing PMIs confirmed the resilience of the euro zone's industrial sector," said Leo Barincou at Oxford Economics.
“与此同时,价格压力持续加剧,强劲需求遭遇供给受限,欧元区投入价格涨幅创5月以来最快,产出价格也快速上涨,强化了我们的观点,即通胀压力在未来几个月将维持高位。”据路透社调查,周三公布的初步数据预计将显示,10月货币联盟通胀率小幅升至4.0%,令欧洲央行面临加息压力。
"Meanwhile, price pressures continue to intensify as robust demand meets constrained supply, with euro zone input prices rising at their fastest pace since May and output prices also increasing rapidly, reinforcing our view inflationary pressures will remain elevated over the coming months." Preliminary data on Wednesday is expected to show inflation in the currency union nudged up to 4.0% in October, according to a Reuters poll, keeping pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates.
欧洲央行上周按预期维持利率不变,但路透社上月调查的经济学家称,欧洲央行将在12月再次加息。德国制造业10月稳健扩张,但法国制造业重回收缩区间。
The ECB left rates on hold last week as expected, but economists polled by Reuters last month said it would hike again in December. Germany's manufacturing industry expanded solidly in October but France's slipped back into contraction.
英国制造商以两年多来最强劲的产出增速开启2026年最后一个季度,尽管成本快速上升可能令英格兰央行担忧,后者预计本周将加息。
British manufacturers started the final quarter of 2026 with the strongest output growth in more than two years although fast-rising costs may worry the Bank of England, which looks set to raise interest rates this week.
芯片需求 10月亚洲各地工厂活动持续扩张,但中国、日本、韩国和台湾的增速放缓,调查显示,美以与伊朗的战争带来的拖累可能正在抵消全球对芯片和AI相关产品的强劲需求。
CHIP DEMAND Factory activity across Asia continued to expand in October but growth slowed in China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, surveys showed, indicating the drag from the US-Israeli war with Iran may be offsetting robust global demand for chips and AI-related goods.
“强劲的芯片和AI需求曾掩盖了亚洲和全球经济中的疲软环节。但随着中东战争拖延许久,推高燃料和食品价格,这种局面变得难以维持,”东京第一生命经济研究所首席新兴市场经济学家西滨彻表示。
"Strong chip and AI demand had masked soft spots in Asian and global economies. But that's becoming hard to sustain with the Middle East war dragging on for so long, pushing up fuel and food prices," said Toru Nishihama, chief emerging market economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo.
“高通胀正损害亚洲消费。来自中国日益激烈的价格竞争,也正拖累日本和韩国等竞争对手出口商,”他说。
"High inflation is hurting Asian consumption. Intensifying price competition from China is also weighing on rival exporters like Japan and South Korea," he said.
由标普全球编制的RatingDog中国通用制造业PMI在10月录得52.0,略低于9月的52.1。
The RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI, compiled by S&P Global, stood at 52.0 in October, just below September's 52.1.
日本PMI回落,增速创七个月新低,因产出和新订单失去动能;韩国工厂活动增速放缓至八个月低位,因产出和需求走弱。台湾PMI继续显示活动稳健增长,但较上月有所放缓。
Japan's PMI eased, marking the slowest expansion in seven months as output and new orders lost momentum, while South Korean factory activity grew at the slowest pace in eight months on weaker output and demand. Taiwan's PMI continued to show solid growth in activity, albeit slowing down from the previous month.
印度制造业增速放缓,因国内需求和招聘走弱,尽管出口订单激增有助于缓冲冲击。
India's manufacturing growth slowed as domestic demand and hiring weakened, although a surge in export orders helped cushion the blow.
国际货币基金组织预测,亚洲经济增明年将放缓,并警告伊朗战争引发的能源冲击以及AI繁荣潜在回调带来的风险正在加剧。
The International Monetary Fund has projected that Asia's economic growth will moderate next year, and it warned of heightening risks from the Iran war-induced energy shock and a potential correction in the AI boom.