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沙特依赖“企业通勤族”的商业模式受到战争挑战Saudi Business Model Built on Corporate Commuters Challenged by War

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通勤者如今面临一个选择:在袭击持续的情况下前往沙特阿拉伯,还是冒着被可能更愿意前往的竞争对手抢走生意的风险。摄影:Fayez Nureldine/法新社/盖蒂图片社Regular commuters now face a choice between traveling into Saudi Arabia as attacks continue, or risk losing out to competitors who may be more willing to do so. Photographer: Fayez Nureldine/AFP/Getty Images

胡塞武装的袭击迫使沙特阿拉伯关闭首都主要机场后不久,一名顾问从阿曼驱车数小时前往利雅得。这位高管两周后离开,并计划很快返回,这次将经多哈,他打赌,亲自到场将使他比那些不愿前来的竞争对手更具优势。

Soon after Houthi attacks forced Saudi Arabia to shutter its capital’s main airport, one consultant drove for hours to get to Riyadh from Oman. The executive left two weeks later and plans to return soon, this time via Doha, betting that showing up will offer an edge over rivals who’re staying away. Another professional who canceled a trip over security concerns faced questions from a Saudi client for failing to appear in person.

另一名因安全顾虑取消行程的专业人士,因未亲自到场而遭到沙特客户的质疑。知情人士表示,虽然利雅得的许多公司已转为远程办公,但一些本地机构仍期望国际顾问能提供面对面会面。

While many companies in Riyadh have shifted to remote work, some local entities expect international advisers to be available for in-person meetings, people familiar with the matter said. That underscores the unique challenges confronting global firms operating in Saudi Arabia. The Public Investment Fund has long said that it will hold off working with companies not headquartered in the kingdom and officials have tried to lure them with lucrative deals, but many professionals continue to fly in.

这凸显了在沙特阿拉伯运营的全球公司面临的独特挑战。公共投资基金长期表示,将推迟与非王国总部的公司合作,官员们也试图用丰厚交易吸引它们,但许多专业人士仍继续飞往该国。沙特仍落后于阿拉伯联合酋长国,后者已成为对冲基金、华尔街巨头和大型企业的磁石。

The nation still lags the United Arab Emirates, which has become a magnet for hedge funds, Wall Street giants and major corporations alike. Regular commuters now face a choice between traveling into the kingdom as attacks continue, or risk losing out to competitors who may be more willing to do so. The need to demonstrate commitment has become more acute as the war escalated, some people familiar with the matter said. Indeed, government officials have continued to strike a defiant tone, even as major events, such as the flagship Future Investment Initiative at which top global financiers convene every year, have been canceled or delayed.

9月,利雅得哈立德国王国际机场的一座空中交通管制塔台。An air traffic control tower at King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh in September.

随着袭击持续,经常往返的人现在面临着进入王国旅行,或冒着被可能更愿意这样做的竞争对手甩在后面的风险。知情人士表示,随着战争升级,展示承诺的需求变得更加迫切。

“To everyone who has traveled to Riyadh, thank you,” Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman said at the World Petroleum Congress last month. “Your presence matters. When circumstances become more difficult, dialogue becomes more important.”

事实上,即使旗舰级未来投资倡议等重大活动被取消或推迟——全球顶尖金融家每年都会在此聚会——政府官员们仍继续保持挑衅的基调。

The Houthis, part of Iran’s so-called “axis of resistance,” have been in conflict with Riyadh since well before the US-Israeli war began in February. They stepped up their attacks in October after Saudi-backed Yemeni forces launched an offensive to recapture Houthi-held areas.

“所有前往利雅德的人,谢谢你们,”沙特能源部长阿卜杜勒阿齐兹·本·萨尔曼上个月在世界石油大会上表示。“你们的出席很重要。当局势变得更加困难时,对话就更加重要。”胡塞武装是伊朗所谓“抵抗轴心”的一部分,自美以战争于二月开始之前很久,就一直与利雅德处于冲突状态。十月,在沙特支持的也门部队发动进攻以夺回胡塞武装控制的地区后,他们加强了攻击。此后,包括利雅德在内的机场遭到袭击,造成超过20人死亡。

Since then, strikes on airports including Riyadh have killed over 20 people. Travel guidance from countries including the US and Britain has led some firms to curb visits in recent weeks. Executives who are able to enter the kingdom are now making arrangements for longer-term stays to minimize security risks, some of the people said. One Abu Dhabi-based executive whose firm was already struggling to win Saudi business has continued flying in to Bahrain and driving onward to meetings in Khobar and Riyadh to avoid losing out. To be sure, the security situation across the region remains uncertain. President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened a new round of strikes on Iran after the US midterm elections on Nov. 3, which would escalate risks not just for Saudi Arabia but the broader region that’s already reeling from the impact of Iranian attacks earlier this year. The fourth quarter is especially important for neighboring countries like the UAE, which is due to host the Formula One Grand Prix as well as other major finance and cultural events.

阿卜杜勒阿齐兹·本·萨勒曼Abdulaziz bin Salman

包括美国和英国在内的多国发布的旅行指南,导致一些公司在最近几周限制了出访。一些知情人士表示,能够进入该王国的高管们现在正在安排长期逗留,以尽量降低安全风险。一位总部位于阿布扎比的高管,其公司本已难以争取沙特业务,他仍继续飞往巴林,再驱车前往霍巴尔和利雅德开会,以免错失机会。

For now, financial executives have continued to show up in Abu Dhabi and while two energy firms canceled plans to attend the city’s annual oil conference, OpenAI boss Sam Altman made an appearance. But despite the current risks and while some executives have privately complained about Riyadh’s ability to deploy capital as freely as its neighbors, Saudi Arabia remains attractive. The Arab world’s biggest economy is in the midst of a multi-trillion dollar economic revamp that continues to throw up multiple opportunities for international firms in non-oil sectors from tourism, to artificial intelligence and technology, to manufacturing and infrastructure.

可以肯定的是,该地区整体安全局势依然充满不确定性。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普多次威胁,将在11月3日美国中期选举后对伊朗发动新一轮打击,这不仅会加剧沙特阿拉伯的风险,也会加剧整个地区的风险,该地区此前已因今年早些时候的伊朗袭击而备受冲击。

“I expect this to push serious firms toward more people based in-country and fewer weekly commuters,” said Linus Bauer, founder of Dubai-based BAA & Partners. “That’s what Riyadh has wanted through its regional HQ policy and the attacks may accelerate it rather than reverse it.”Get the Mideast Money newsletter, a weekly look at the intersection of wealth and power in the region. Nonetheless, Riyadh has so far been unable to convince a large number of professionals moving to the region to be based there.

第四季度对阿联酋等邻国尤其重要,阿联酋将举办一级方程式大奖赛以及其他重大金融和文化活动。目前,金融高管们仍继续前往阿布扎比,尽管两家能源公司取消了参加该市年度石油会议的计划,但OpenAI首席执行官山姆·奥尔特曼现身了。

Many still prefer to live in Dubai, making the short flight between the two hubs one of the busiest travel routes globally prior to the war. The Saudi capital has fewer housing and schooling options and a less familiar lifestyle for western expatriate families, although that is slowly changing: late last year, the kingdom froze rents for five years to boost affordability and started allowing high-earning residents to buy alcohol.

但尽管存在这些风险,且一些高管私下抱怨利雅得不如其邻国那样能自由部署资本,沙特阿拉伯依然极具吸引力。阿拉伯世界最大经济体正处于一场数万亿美元经济改造的进程中,该进程持续为国际企业在旅游、人工智能和技术、制造及基础设施等非石油领域创造多重机遇。

Now, the commuting arrangement could become harder to sustain as attacks disrupt air travel and companies reassess the risks of sending staff. “The bigger test in my view is the next three months,” Bauer said. “If Riyadh airport stays open and the air defense gaps are closed, confidence comes back quickly. Another successful strike would be a different story. Then you’d see foreign airlines and multinationals reprice Saudi exposure for the long term.”The kingdom’s size and extensive transport links offer alternatives to flying into Riyadh, but the capital’s main airport is also slowly reopening.

“我预计这将促使严肃的企业转向更多常驻当地的人员,而减少每周往返的通勤者,”总部位于迪拜的BAA & Partners创始人利努斯·鲍尔表示。“这正是利雅得通过其地区总部政策所希望看到的,而袭击事件可能会加速这一进程,而非扭转它。”

Daily life has continued as normal across much of Saudi Arabia despite the latest escalation, and thousands attended a concert by Lebanese singer Fadel Chaker last month. “Saudis are getting on with their lives and their work, offices are open and meetings are happening,” said Rana Maristani, CEO of UK-based R Consultancy Group, which supports firms expanding in Saudi Arabia. “For consultants, it’s also a time when clients want you close. They value people who pick up the phone, keep things moving and stand with them.”

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