拒绝特朗普的选举否认剧本，塞尔维亚和匈牙利的民族主义领导人选择了有序撤退。
The Fine (and Not So Fine) Art of Conceding an Election Defeat Rejecting President Trump’s election denial playbook, nationalist leaders in Serbia and Hungary opted for an orderly retreat.
他们曾迎合特朗普总统，追随其步伐，宣扬关于“深层政府”和神秘外国势力企图推翻他们的阴谋论。
They curried favor with President Trump and, following his lead, promoted conspiracy theories about the “deep state” and shadowy foreign forces working to oust them.
但当关键时刻来临，投票潮流对他们不利时，塞尔维亚和匈牙利的长期领导人均退缩了，没有追随这位美国总统走上否认选举失败的道路。
But when the time came, and the tide of voting went against them, the longtime leaders of Serbia and Hungary both stepped back from following the American president down the path of denying election defeat.
塞尔维亚总统武契奇迅速承认在10月25日大选中失利，匈牙利总理欧尔班在六个月前也如此做，这使得仍坚称赢得2020年总统大选的特朗普，在无视基本选举算术这一点上，成了异类而非引领者。
The quick acceptance of defeat in Serbia’s Oct. 25 general election by Aleksandar Vucic and, six months earlier, by Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary, left Mr. Trump, who is still insisting that he won the 2020 presidential election, an outlier rather than a trendsetter in defying basic electoral arithmetic.
即便是志同道合的强人也做出了让步，这凸显了特朗普的否认主义与接受现实之间的鸿沟。这也再次凸显了一个悬而未决的问题：在周二最激烈争夺的国会竞选中，失败者无论来自哪个党派，是会认输还是会质疑投票。
The concessions by even like-minded strongmen highlighted the gulf separating Mr. Trump’s denialism from the acceptance of reality. They also underlined yet again the question that looms over the most fiercely contested congressional races on Tuesday about whether the losers, from either party, will concede or challenge the balloting.
在与塞尔维亚大选同一天举行的巴西总统大选中，落败的特朗普支持候选人弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗大叫舞弊，要求宣布选举无效。但他逃往美国，而不是像其父雅伊尔在2022年自己落败后、以及特朗普两年前所做的那样，试图动员支持者推翻结果。
In Brazil’s recent presidential election, held on the same day as Serbia’s, Flávio Bolsonaro, the losing Trump-backed candidate, cried foul and demanded that the vote be annulled. But he fled to the United States instead of trying to mobilize his supporters to overturn the numbers, as his father, Jair, did after his own defeat in 2022 and Mr. Trump did two years earlier.
其他强人采取了更具特朗普风格的做法，如马杜罗，他在一场有瑕疵的选举中被宣布获胜，统治委内瑞拉，直到今年被美国军队从权力中拖走。
Other strongmen have taken a more Trumpian approach, like Nicolás Maduro, who was declared winner in a tainted election in 2024 and ruled Venezuela until United States forces plucked him from power this year.
因此，在多年践踏民主规范之后，匈牙利和塞尔维亚的领导人毫不犹豫地承认失败，这并非理所当然。知情人士表示，这一决定受多种因素影响，其中包括：两位领导人都在谋求重返执政地位，且败选差距过大，几乎没有操纵结果的空间。
So after years of running down democratic norms, the ready acceptance of defeat in Hungary and Serbia was not to be taken for granted. People close to the process said that the decisions were influenced, among other factors, by the fact that both leaders are angling for a return to power and that they lost so decisively that there was little room to manipulate the results.
武契奇从2012年起主导塞尔维亚，掌控着一台看似不可战胜的政治机器。选举之夜，他抱怨对手“不间断地撒谎”，并宣称自己是被外国敌人“推翻”的，其中包括“美国深层政府——即反对特朗普总统的那一派”。
Mr. Vucic, the master of a seemingly invincible political machine that dominated Serbia from 2012, carped on election night about “nonstop lying” by his foes and claimed that he had been “toppled” by foreign enemies, including “the American deep state — the one opposed to President Trump.”
然而，令对手和盟友都感到意外的是，武契奇在发牢骚前先说了一句简单的话：“很明显，我们输掉了这些选举。”
Yet, to the surprise of both opponents and allies, Mr. Vucic prefaced his complaints with a simple statement: “It is clear that we have lost these elections.”
资深美国外交官克里斯托弗·希尔曾在拜登总统任内担任驻塞尔维亚大使，在小布什总统任内担任国务卿助理。他对武契奇迅速发表的认输演讲评价道：“绝无可能他会‘学特朗普’。绝无可能。”
Christopher R. Hill, a veteran American diplomat who served as ambassador to Serbia under President Biden and assistant secretary of state under President George W. Bush, said of Mr. Vucic’s swift concession speech: “There is no way he would have ‘pulled a Trump.’ No way at all.”
希尔说：“他知道自己输了，而且输得很惨，想抢在程序前面。”他指出，武契奇在一个新组建的名为“学生名单——学生获胜”的政治联盟中的获胜对手观点差异巨大，可能难以团结一致。这让武契奇相信“我会回来的”。
“He knew he lost and lost big and wanted to get out ahead of the process,” Mr. Hill said, noting that his victorious opponents in a newly formed political bloc called “Student List-Students Win” have such divergent views that they could have trouble hanging together. This, he said, encouraged Mr. Vucic to believe “I’ll be back.”
欧尔班也相信他会回来，他在4月12日选举后的认输演讲中试图鼓舞受到重创的青民盟党为未来的战斗做准备。“我们不会放弃，”他说。“永远，永远，永远不会。”
Mr. Orban, too, believed that he would be back, using his concession speech after an April 12 election to try to rally his shellshocked Fidesz party for future battles. “We are not giving up,” he said. “Never, never, never.”
“从我们的角度来看，这很简单：我们是民主主义者，”欧尔班的前政治总监、该党在4月败选中担任竞选经理的鲍拉日·欧尔班说。“我们的制度只有在拥有民众支持时才能运转。如果我们失去了这种支持，即使存在选举干预，我们的首要任务也是赢回支持，”他补充道。
“From our point of view, it is simple: We are democrats,” said Balazs Orban, Mr. Orban’s former political director and his party’s campaign manager for the April election it lost. “Our system only works if it has the support of the people. If we lose that support, even if there was election interference, our first task is to win it back,” he added.
武契奇的亲密盟友、担任塞尔维亚临时总统的阿娜·布尔纳比奇表示，选举结果“令人极其震惊。我完全接受。”她说，许多塞尔维亚人“会后悔这个选择”，并在未来投不同的票。
Ana Brnabic, a close ally of Mr. Vucic’s serving as Serbia’s interim president, said that the election results “came as an enormous surprise. I accept them fully.”Many Serbs, she said, “will come to regret this choice” and vote differently in the future.
与美国不同，美国总统拥有的行政权力使白宫有广阔余地来宣告其自身的“现实”，而欧洲的实际权力掌握在议会和由拥有最多席位的政党提名的总理手中，而非一位固定任期在任的领导人。
In contrast to the United States, where executive powers vested in the president give the White House wide leeway to declare its own reality, real power in Europe rests with Parliament and a prime minister named by the party with the most seats rather than a leader ensconced in office for a fixed term.
而欧洲总理，无论其在本国政党机构、安全部队、选举委员会及其他国家机构中掌控力多么强大，其言行都受到外国政府和外国投资者的制约。
And European prime ministers, no matter how firm their grip at home on party machinery, the security forces, electoral commissions and other state institutions, are constrained in what they can say and do by foreign governments and foreign investors.
匈牙利是欧盟成员国，欧盟通过将数十亿欧元的拨款和贷款与欧尔班接受基本民主规范挂钩，限制了他的行动空间。塞尔维亚虽然仍在集团之外，且加入进程因其半心半意的努力而停滞，但也严重依赖欧盟资金以及来自德国和其他欧洲国家的投资。
Hungary is a member of the European Union, which crimped Mr. Orban’s room for maneuver by tying tens of billions of euros in grants and loans to his acceptance of basic democratic norms. Serbia, though still outside the bloc and stalled in its halfhearted efforts to join, also depends heavily on E.U. funds and investment from Germany and other European countries.
“很明显，对武契奇的国际压力太大，无法抵抗，”米兰·普罗蒂奇说，他是一位与反对派结盟的历史学家，也是塞尔维亚首都贝尔格莱德的前市长。
“It is pretty obvious that the international pressure on Vucic was too high to resist,” said Milan Protic, an opposition-aligned historian and former mayor of Belgrade, the Serbian capital.
不过，他说，随着首批选举结果陆续传出，“很明显，武契奇及其盟友准备通过使用武力来保住权力。”选举之夜，武装安全部队和身穿黑衣、手持棒球棍的壮汉涌入贝尔格莱德市中心，支持武契奇先生。
Still, he said, as the first results came in “it was pretty evident that Vucic and allies were ready to preserve power by using force.”Armed security forces and burly young men dressed in black and carrying baseball bats poured into the center of Belgrade on election night in support of Mr. Vucic.
但他补充说，“发生了一些事，让他改变了主意。”斯波约耶·武莱维奇说，他是塞尔维亚反恐部队的前负责人，去年被武契奇先生解职，他在一次采访中表示，整个晚上他一直与安全部队的联系人保持联系，并担心如果反对派可能获胜，会出现暴力抵抗。
But then, he added, “something happened that made him change his mind.”Spasoje Vulevic, the former head of Serbia’s anti-terrorist unit, who was dismissed by Mr. Vucic last year, said in an interview that he was in touch with contacts in the security forces throughout the evening and feared violent resistance to a likely opposition victory.
他说，外部压力，尤其是来自欧盟的压力，“在武契奇决定不诉诸武力并如此迅速承认失败方面发挥了重要作用”。
Foreign pressure, particularly from the European Union, he said, “played an important role in Vucic’s decision not to resort to force and to concede defeat so quickly.”
领导欧洲议会在贝尔格莱德选举观察团的奥地利议员安德烈亚斯·施里德表示，傍晚时分，贝尔格莱德中央选举委员会周围气氛“完全很奇怪”，街道上的路灯全部熄灭，“街道被全副武装的警察封锁”。
Andreas Schieder, an Austrian member of the European Parliament who led the legislature’s election monitoring mission in Belgrade, said there had been a “completely weird atmosphere” around the central electoral commission in Belgrade in the early evening, with streetlights all turned off and “streets blocked by heavily armed policemen.”
亲武契奇媒体集团《信使报》在投票结束后不久报道称，执政党获得了54%的选票，取得决定性胜利。（实际上，它只获得了39%的选票，远落后于学生名单的52%。）施里德表示，“国际压力”帮助说服武契奇甚至不去考虑效仿特朗普的做法。“到最后，结果太过明确。他无法对此动手脚，”这位欧洲议员说。“如果结果更接近，他可能会尝试一些事情。”
Informer, a zealously pro-Vucic media group comprising print and television outlets, reported shortly after the polls closed that the governing party had won 54 percent of the vote, giving it a decisive victory. (In reality, it had won only 39 percent, far behind the Student List’s 52 percent.) Mr. Schieder said “international pressure” helped persuade Mr. Vucic not to even think of following Mr. Trump’s example. “At the end it was too clear a result. He could not play with it,” the European legislator said. “If it had been more narrow, he could have tried something.”
武契奇回应媒体关于外国干预劝说他接受这场压倒性失败的报道时，上周否认自己在选举夜很晚之前与任何外国官员交谈过，那时他早已承认失败。他第一个打来电话的人，他说，是欧尔班，时间是晚上11点15分。
Mr. Vucic, responding to media reports of foreign intervention to persuade him to accept the landslide against him, last week denied that he had spoken to any foreign officials until late on election night, long after he had conceded. His first caller, he said, was Mr. Orban, at 11:15 p.m.
武契奇表示，他最初受到村庄早期结果的鼓舞，这些结果显示他的党“处处获胜”，但随着贝尔格莱德和其他城市的选票陆续统计，形势发生逆转，他决定承认失败“没有意义”。
Mr. Vucic said he had been encouraged by early results from villages showing his party “winning everywhere” but, after watching the tide turn as results came in from Belgrade and other cities, decided that it “made no sense” not to accept defeat.
“民众中存在紧张情绪，每个人都很紧张。让国家紧张局势平息下来，是严肃人士、政治家的责任。他们有责任站出来，做该做的事，”他在投票两天后的一次新闻发布会上表示。
“There was tension among the people, and everyone was nervous. It is the responsibility of serious people, of statesmen, to calm tensions in the country. It is their responsibility to come out and do what needs to be done,” he told a news conference two days after the vote.
对于保加利亚索非亚自由策略中心主席、维也纳人文科学研究所永久研究员伊万·克拉斯捷夫而言，武契奇和欧尔班退出斗争的主要原因是简单的算术。
For Ivan Krastev, chairman of the Center for Liberal Strategies in Sofia, Bulgaria, and a permanent fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna, the main reason that Mr. Vucic and Mr. Orban bowed out of a fight was simple arithmetic.
“差距很大，而且与特朗普的情况不同，他们支持者的热情有限，”他说。“他们执政时间太长了，甚至他们的支持者也想要一些改变。”“他们不效仿特朗普的另一个原因，”他说，“就是特朗普本人。他们知道，一旦下台，他能保障他们的个人安全，”就像他曾为弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗提供庇护一样。
“The margin was big and, unlike in the case of Trump, the enthusiasm of their support was limited,” he said. “They had been in power for a very long time and even their supporters wanted some change.”“The other reason they did not act Trump,” he said, “is Trump. They knew that he is a guarantee for their personal security,” once out of power, much as he did by offering haven to Flávio Bolsonaro.
周六，在败选六天后，武契奇在贝尔格莱德附近他父亲的家中接待了欧尔班。“是的，我们最近都输了选举，但我们没有失去尊严、骄傲和信念，”武契奇站在落败的匈牙利领导人身旁说道。“我们会回来的，”他补充道。阿利萨·多格拉马季耶娃在贝尔格莱德参与了报道。安德鲁·希金斯是《纽约时报》驻华沙的东欧和中欧分社社长。
On Saturday, six days after his defeat, Mr. Vucic hosted Mr. Orban at his father’s house near Belgrade. “Yes, we both recently lost elections but we did not lose our dignity, our pride and our faith,” Mr. Vucic said, standing next to the defeated Hungarian leader. “We’ll come back,” he added. Alisa Dogramadzieva contributed reporting from Belgrade. Andrew Higgins is the East and Central Europe bureau chief for The Times based in Warsaw.