作者：María Paula Mijares Torres根据旧金山联邦储备银行的一份新经济通讯，今年太平洋海水的强力变暖——一种被称为厄尔尼诺的周期性现象——可能会在明年推高美国物价并提振就业。
By María Paula Mijares Torres A powerful warming of Pacific waters this year — a cyclical phenomenon known as El Niño — could push US prices higher and boost employment next year, according to a new economic letter from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
更高的就业水平可能会给劳动力市场带来提振。但这种天气模式可能导致价格压力重现——分析发现，厄尔尼诺历史上会推高核心服务和食品价格。
Higher employment could provide a boost to the labor market. But the weather pattern could lead to renewed price pressures — El Niños historically drive up prices for core services and food, the analysis found.
当赤道太平洋异常温暖的海水改变大气环流和天气模式时，就会出现厄尔尼诺现象。在美国，它通常给北部部分地区带来较温和的冬季条件，给南部带来更潮湿的天气，并减少大西洋飓风活动。美国国家海洋和大气管理局的数据将当前的厄尔尼诺归类为“非常强”级别。
El Niño occurs when unusually warm waters in the equatorial Pacific alter atmospheric circulation and weather patterns. In the US, it typically brings milder winter conditions to parts of the North, wetter weather across the South and reduced Atlantic hurricane activity. Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration classify the current El Niño as a “very strong” episode.
美国面临的通胀风险在很大程度上取决于厄尔尼诺明年是否会让位于拉尼娜——这是一种影响相反的模式，其特征是太平洋信风增强、太平洋沿岸海水变冷。
The inflation risks to the US depend largely on whether El Niño gives way next year to La Niña, a pattern with opposite effects in which Pacific trade winds strengthen and waters off the Pacific coast are cooler.
作者 Molly Ardren、Tobin Graf 和 Brigitte Roth Tran 指出，与原本的情况相比，当前的厄尔尼诺可能已经在 4 月至 7 月间将个人消费支出（PCE）价格水平推高了约 0.3 个百分点。
The current El Niño may already have pushed the personal consumption expenditures price level about 0.3 percentage points higher between April and July than it otherwise would have been, according to the authors, Molly Ardren, Tobin Graf and Brigitte Roth Tran.
研究人员预计，这种初步涨幅将在今年年底前消退。然而，如果明年出现拉尼娜模式，进一步的价格压力可能会在 2027 年给 PCE 通胀增加 1 个百分点。
Researchers expect that initial increase to fade by the end of this year. However, further price pressures could add 1 percentage point to PCE inflation in 2027 if the episode is followed by a La Niña pattern next year.
作者指出，虽然价格压力在厄尔尼诺周期早期就会冲击消费者的钱包，但对劳动力市场的影响则需要更长时间才会显现。
While price pressures hit consumer pocketbooks early in an El Niño cycle, effects on the labor market take longer to materialize, according to the authors.
旧金山联储的分析发现，在厄尔尼诺周期的第一年，非农就业总人数通常不受影响，随后在第二年显著扩张。与通胀预测高度依赖是否随后出现拉尼娜现象不同，2027年预期出现的招聘激增和失业率下降，是基于过去厄尔尼诺周期中一贯出现的模式。
The San Francisco Fed’s analysis found total nonfarm payroll employment is generally unaffected in the first year of an episode before expanding noticeably in the second year. Unlike inflation projections, which depend heavily on whether a La Niña follows, the expected hiring surge and falling unemployment in 2027 is based on a pattern that occurs consistently across past El Niño cycles.
天气状况能以不同方式影响经济的各个部门。例如，较暖和的冬季可降低取暖需求，并提高建筑业和农业的生产率，而较大的降水量可能扰乱建筑施工或引发洪水。
Weather conditions can affect various parts of the economy in different ways. Milder winters, for example, can reduce heating demand and increase productivity in construction and agriculture, while heavier precipitation can disrupt construction or cause flooding.
作者的数据样本仅包含20世纪50年代以来的22次厄尔尼诺事件，其中仅有4次属于“极强”级别，而当前这一轮预计将强于历史数据中包含的任何一次。
The author’s data sample included only 22 El Niño events since the 1950s, just four of them “very strong,” and the current episode is projected to be stronger than any included in the historical data.
作者写道：“我们认为这些结果不应视为预测，而是说明明年存在通胀走高的实质性风险”，并指出厄尔尼诺为美国更广泛的经济前景增添了不确定性。
“We consider these results not as a forecast but rather as pointing to a meaningful risk of higher inflation next year,” the authors wrote, noting that El Niño adds uncertainty into the broader US economic outlook.