The US will soon find out whether Donald Trump has managed to retain control of Congress, following the midterm elections on Nov 3. The Republicans control both chambers for now, but their House majority is razor thin and the Senate margin dangerously narrow.

Members of the Senate are elected every six years, and in cycles which means only 35 out of 100 seats are up for re-election this November. There are 15 Republican-leaning seats, while 13 are likely to go to the Democrats. Seven states could go either way.

The Republicans hold 53 seats in the Senate, and the Democrats 45. There are also two independents, Bernie Sanders and Angus King, who caucus with the Democrats.

Every president since Bill Clinton has taken office with a trifecta: the White House, Senate and House.

Typically, this changes during the midterms, when the opposing party tends to take control of either the Senate, the House, or both. This is key for the opposition because it gives them more power to block the president’s policies.

The House of Representatives All members of the House of Representatives must stand for election every two years, which means all 435 seats are up for reelection. To gain control of the House, a party needs 218 seats.

The Republicans currently holds 218 seats and the Democrats 214. Two seats are vacant. There is one independent seat, which is Republican-aligned: it’s held by Kevin Kiley, who represents California’s 3rd congressional district. Mr Kiley was elected as a Republican but subsequently became independent in March 2026 following rows over Redistricting. He said he was “frustrated...by the hyper-partisanship in Congress” and described gerrymandering as an “epidemic” in which “both parties are complicit”.

Two seats were left vacant after Democrat Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick resigned from representing Florida’s 20th district and Republican Tony Gonzales resigned from representing Texas’ 23rd district.

The elections to watch This is an interesting midterm cycle, with a handful of probable Republican wins becoming tossups. In the Senate they include Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas.

We’re also watching Georgia, which is held by Senator Jon Ossoff, the youngest incumbent senator, who is eyeing a 2028 presidential run.

In Alaska, former Democratic congresswoman Mary Peltola is challenging Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan. Alaska has not elected a Democratic senator since 2008. A Peltola victory would be particularly notable given that Trump won the state by 13 points in 2024. Things have been complicated by the entrance of Dan J Sullivan Jr, a late-entry independent candidate the Democrats have been accused of using as a “decoy” to split the vote from the incumbent senator.

Iowa is an open seat, with Democratic state representative Josh Turek facing Republican congresswoman Ashley Hinson. Iowa has shifted towards Republicans in recent elections: Trump won it by 13 points in 2024. As in Alaska, Democrats have not won a Senate election in Iowa since 2008, making this a significant potential comeback.

In Kansas, Democratic pastor Adam Hamilton is challenging Republican incumbent Roger Marshall. This is arguably one of the most historically striking potential upsets: Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932. Trump won the state by 16 points in 2024, making the close contest an indication of how competitive traditionally Republican territory has become.

In Maine, Republican incumbent Susan Collins is seeking a sixth term against Democrat Troy Jackson. Collins survived a major Democratic challenge in 2020, winning re-election by nine points even as Joe Biden carried Maine. She is also the only Republican senator representing a state won by Kamala Harris in 2024. A defeat would end her 30-year Senate career.

Michigan represents another open seat, with Democrat Abdul El-Sayed facing former Republican congressman Mike Rogers. Michigan has not elected a Republican senator since 1994. A Republican victory would therefore mark a major shift in a state that remains highly competitive in presidential elections. Trump won Michigan by just one percentage point in 2024.

In Ohio, former Democratic senator Sherrod Brown is attempting to regain his seat after losing re-election in 2024. He faces Republican incumbent Jon Husted, who was appointed to replace JD Vance. Mr Brown held the seat for 18 years before losing it in 2024. His potential return would be notable because Ohio has increasingly favoured Republicans: Mr Trump won it by 11 points in 2024.

Texas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988. Democrat James Talarico is challenging Republican attorney general Ken Paxton. A Talarico victory would be a major political upset, particularly given that Trump won the state by 14 points in 2024. Who has turned out to vote?

Midterm elections typically have a lower turnout than presidential elections. However, early voting data from the University of Florida Election Lab revealed that by Nov 2, more than 54 million votes had already been cast.

This has exceeded the number of early votes during the 2022 midterm elections, when 46 million people cast an early ballot.

Across the US, far more Democrats voted early than Republicans. Democrats cast 43 per cent of the early votes, while Republicans only cast 32 per cent. Republicans are counting on a higher election day turnout. Is it all about Trump?

Historically, midterm elections tend to go poorly for the president’s party – especially if approval ratings are low. Mr Trump’s approval ratings are among the lowest on record.

His approval rating has been falling since he took office in January 2025, according to data from Silver Bulletin, based on more than 85 polls with an average sample size of 2,000 respondents.

At the start of his presidency, opinion was already divided: just over 51 per cent of Americans approved of Mr Trump, while 40 per cent disapproved.

Around Oct 21, Mr Trump reached a record-low approval rating of just 36.3 per cent (with some pollsters estimating an even lower value).

But it’s not all about Trump. In the seven battleground states – Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas – the most important issue for voters is the economy.

According to a New York Times/Siena poll of voters in these states, nearly 30 per cent cited the economy as their biggest concern, followed by immigration (9 per cent) and “the character/competence of the candidate” (7 per cent).