
大卫观点 在另一位丹·沙利文出现之前,先有了另一位迈克·多伊尔。
David’s view Before there was the other Dan Sullivan, there was the other Mike Doyle.
四年前,长期担任匹兹堡选区联邦众议员的民主党人迈克·多伊尔退休,一位名为萨默·李的左翼州议员在初选中获胜,将接替他。共和党提名了一位来自郊区的地方政客与她对决,此人有一个巧合的名字:迈克·多伊尔。
Four years ago, when longtime Pittsburgh Democrat Mike Doyle retired from Congress, a left-wing legislator named Summer Lee won the primary to replace him. Republicans nominated a local politician from the suburbs to face her who had a fortuitous name: Mike Doyle.
一些选民感到困惑。这位新多伊尔的草坪竞选牌自称“正确的迈克”,却未明确表明他是共和党人——在一个稳操胜券的民主党选区,共和党身份本是绝对的劣势。当地民主党人接到担忧的选民来电,询问为何李要挑战他们深爱的自由派联邦众议员。民主党籍的多伊尔不得不紧急召开新闻发布会澄清,他不是那位共和党籍的多伊尔:“我的名字在选票上,但那不是我。”
Some voters were perplexed. The new Doyle’s lawn signs called him “the right Mike” without explicitly identifying him as a Republican — a moniker that would be a non-starter in the safely Democratic seat. Local Democrats got worried calls, asking why Lee was running against their beloved liberal congressman. The Democrat Doyle called an emergency press conference to clarify that he was not the Republican Doyle: “My name is on the ballot, but it’s not me.”
李最终获胜,但得票率比以往该选区的民主党候选人要低。此后此事不了了之。没有联邦调查针对多伊尔的计谋;没有要求若多伊尔获胜不得就职的呼声;州长也没有发表声明称可能不认证选举结果。
Lee won, albeit by a smaller margin than other Democrats in her district had in the past. Nothing else came of the story. There was no federal investigation of the Doyle scheme; no demands not to seat Doyle if he won; no statement from the governor saying that he might not certify the election.
而所有这些情节,却在本轮选举周期的阿拉斯加上演。民主党秘密招募一名与该州现任共和党联邦参议员同名的候选人,此举可能对周二选举后的局势产生重大影响。
All of that has unfolded in Alaska this cycle. The clandestine Democratic effort to recruit a candidate who shares the name of the state’s incumbent Republican senator could have major implications for what happens after Tuesday.
该阴谋的曝光重创了民主党人玛丽·佩尔托拉,使她偏离既定竞选信息,如今更威胁到民主党夺取参议院控制权的前景。唐纳德·特朗普总统的政府已介入调查,并提起诉讼,试图在沙利文落败时阻止选举结果认证——尽管联邦法官在周末驳回了该诉讼。这些行动,加上在投票前60天内宣布对候选人展开调查,显示出特朗普政府正在抛弃司法部长期以来的不成文规范。
The plot’s exposure damaged Democrat Mary Peltola, knocking her off-message, and now threatens her party’s chances of winning control of the Senate. President Donald Trump’s administration is investigating, and also sued to block the certification of the results should Sullivan lose — though a federal judge tossed out the suit over the weekend. Those efforts, along with the announcement of investigations into candidates within 60 days of the vote, show how the Trump administration is jettisoning unwritten norms at the Justice Department.
阿拉斯加的混乱局势,正沉重地压在寄望于在明天赢得国会控制权的民主党人身上。无论在哪个议院获胜,都意味着将拥有为期两年的监督权“许可证”,授权民主党传唤特朗普政府及其私营部门的盟友。部分民主党人内心渴望报复,这正在考验他们公开表态的立场,即他们必须恢复被特朗普摧毁的规范。
The Alaska mess is weighing heavily on Democrats who hope to win control of Congress tomorrow. Victory in either chamber would mean a two-year license on oversight powers, empowering Democrats to subpoena the Trump administration and its allies in the private sector. There is a thirst for vengeance among some Democrats that is testing their public stance that they must restore standards blown up by Trump.
大多数民主党人也有一种共同的感觉:遵守这些规范让他们一无所获,而共和党却从弯曲规则中获益。
There’s also a shared sense, among most Democrats, that following those standards has gotten them nothing, while Republicans have benefitted from bending the rules.
“唐纳德·特朗普和[众议院监督委员会主席]詹姆斯·科默基本上写就了一本关于如何将调查政治化、攻击政敌和将政府武器化的剧本,”加州民主党人罗伯特·加西亚说道,若民主党赢得众议院多数席位,他有望领导众议院监督委员会。“[司法部长]托德·布兰奇?他的全部工作就是为总统牟取私利。”关于哪个党派最先动用“法律战”达到目的的争论由来已久。民主党长期将水门事件调查视为美国宪法和法律体系按设计运作的典范。共和党则更倾向于将其称为一场针对刚刚大获全胜的总统的政变。
“Donald Trump and [House Oversight Committee Chairman] James Comer have basically written a playbook on how to politicize investigations and attack political enemies and weaponize government,” said Robert Garcia, the California Democrat who is in line to lead the House Oversight Committee in a Democratic majority. “[Attorney General] Todd Blanche? His whole job is just to grift for the president.”The argument over which party first used “lawfare” to get what it wanted is an old one. Democrats have long celebrated the Watergate investigation as an example of the Constitution and US legal system working as designed. Republicans are more likely to call the episode a coup against a president who’d just won a landslide.
但目前的争论,像许多令人恼火的对话一样,始于2016年大选。尽管希拉里·克林顿犯下了诸多错误,比如告诉煤矿工人如果她当选他们的工作就会消失,民主党人普遍认为,若联邦调查局(FBI)没有放弃其“60天规则”,在大选前夕宣布对胡马·阿贝丁笔记本电脑中发现的电子邮件展开调查,克林顿本应赢得那场大选。一些人认为,当共和党拒绝联署一封警告俄罗斯干预那场竞选的信函时,贝拉克·奥巴马的反应过于软弱。
But the current debate begins, like so many irritating conversations, with the 2016 election. For all of Hillary Clinton’s errors, like telling coal miners that their jobs would vanish if she won, Democrats largely believe that she would have won the election against Trump had the FBI not abandoned its “60 day rule” and announced an 11th hour investigation into emails found on Huma Abedin’s laptop. Some believe that Barack Obama acted too timidly when Republicans refused to co-sign a letter warning of Russian interference in that campaign.
没有人曾指责特朗普行事胆怯。十年过去了,他的司法部仍在调查针对其首次竞选活动的“通俄调查”起因。当拜登接替特朗普时,他留任了调查其儿子的美国检察官。当特朗普接替拜登时,他解雇了参与“1·6事件”后调查的检察官。
Nobody has ever accused Trump of acting timidly. Ten years on, his Justice Department is still probing the origins of the Russia investigation into his first campaign. When Joe Biden replaced Trump, he kept on the US attorney who was investigating his son. When Trump replaced Biden, he sacked the prosecutors who’d worked on post-Jan. 6 investigations.
民主党人觉得自己成了冤大头。拜登公开承诺其司法部将独立行事。私下里,他对司法部长梅里克·加兰的选择心怀不满——加兰一直推迟调查特朗普,直到2022年11月,那时共和党或多或少已团结一致,谴责任何针对特朗普的调查都是“法律战”。许多民主党人心中都记着这件事,正注视着阿拉斯加的司法部——尽管这并非唯一一个政党以可能让选民困惑的方式干预的竞选。
Democrats felt like suckers. Biden publicly promised that his Justice Department would act independently. Privately, he was resentful of Attorney General Merrick Garland’s choices to hold off on investigating Trump until November 2022, after Republicans were more or less united in denouncing any Trump probe as “lawfare.”This is on many Democratic minds as they watch the Justice Department in Alaska — even though it’s not the only race where one party meddled in a way that might confuse voters.
在缅因州,一个保守派超级政治行动委员会正在为一名左翼搅局州长候选人发送邮寄广告。在俄亥俄州,一个保守派超级政治行动委员会正为一名可能威胁民主党人谢罗德·布朗连任机会的社会党参议员候选人做同样的事。在内华达州,一个保守派超级政治行动委员会……好吧,你懂了。
In Maine, a conservative PAC is sending out mail for a left-wing spoiler candidate for governor. In Ohio, a conservative PAC is doing the same for a socialist Senate candidate who could threaten Democrat Sherrod Brown’s chances. In Nevada, a conservative PAC… okay, you get the point.
“他们痴迷于干预选举,”加西亚说。“我们必须制定新规则和新标准,让事情回到正轨,不再让总统不断试图操纵选举。”在宾夕法尼亚州,当我问州长乔什·夏皮罗民主党应如何应对特朗普的司法部时,他表达了希望:他们能成为“法治与秩序之党”——通过展示这并非使用政府取之不尽资源的方式。
“They’re obsessed with meddling in elections,” Garcia said. “We have to put in place new rules and a new standard to get things back to a place where we don’t have the president trying to rig elections constantly.”In Pennsylvania, when I asked Gov. Josh Shapiro how Democrats should respond to Trump’s Justice Department, he was hopeful they would be the “party of law and order” — by showing that this was not the way to use the government’s bottomless resources.
“我每一天都对我们的团队和公众说,我执法不避亲疏、不徇私情,”夏皮罗说,指的是他担任州检察长的六年。“特朗普政府并非如此。”尽管关于要走多远仍在争论中,共和党正将民主党描绘成一心想要追究总统责任、以此激励基本盘的政党。“他们在本届国会已经提出了弹劾条款,”众议院议长迈克·约翰逊宣称。实际上,民主党众议员阿尔·格林和什里·萨内达尔提出的弹劾条款未能获得广泛的民主党支持,而且这两人明年都不会留在国会。
“I said every single day to our team and to the public that I enforce the law without fear or favor,” said Shapiro, referring to his six years as state attorney general. “That is not the case in the Trump administration.”Despite the ongoing debate of how far to go, Republicans are portraying a party intent on going after the president in order to rev up their base. “They’ve already filed articles of impeachment in this Congress,” House Speaker Mike Johnson alleged. In reality, the impeachment articles filed by Democratic Reps. Al Green and Shri Thanedar failed to accumulate broad Democratic support, and neither man will be in Congress next year.
我预计民主党的思路会反映周二发生的事情。可以肯定的是,将会有针对特朗普政府及其盟友的调查。但任何新调查的风险评估将取决于选民对其的胃口。选民并没有真正惩罚过发起最终不了了之的调查的政党。与此同时,特朗普因赦免罗德·布拉戈耶维奇、夸梅·基尔帕特里克或克里斯·科林斯等腐败政客,并未失去多少支持。
I’d expect Democrats’ thinking to reflect what happens on Tuesday. To be sure, there will be investigations of the Trump administration and its allies. But the risk assessment of any new probe will depend on voters’ appetite for it. Voters haven’t really punished a party for launching an investigation that doesn’t go anywhere. At the same time, Trump hasn’t lost much support for pardoning corrupt politicians like Rod Blagojevich, Kwame Kilpatrick, or Chris Collins.
我对一件事很有信心:没有一位手握木槌的民主党人会想就此翻过特朗普监督这一页。
I’m confident about one thing: No Democrat with a gavel is going to want to move on from Trump oversight.
值得关注的是,福克斯新闻的伊莱恩·马隆探讨了民主党的调查如何能给共和党调查对象造成更大的经济损失。
Notable For Fox News, Elaine Mallon looked at how Democratic investigations could do more financial damage to their Republican targets.
在他的《Off Message》通讯中,布赖恩·博伊特勒主张,民主党应像特朗普对待加兰的调查那样,将布兰奇的调查视为非法的选举造势活动。
In his Off Message newsletter, Brian Beutler argued that Democrats should treat Blanche’s investigations the way Trump treated Garland’s — as illegitimate electioneering.