民主党需要净赢得四个参议院席位才能控制国会上院。现在，随着11月3日选举日临近，对这一努力至关重要的一个州正陷入混乱。共和党人数月来一直声称，居住在一个小渔村的退休教师丹·J·沙利文发起参议院竞选，是为了混淆选民并从现任共和党参议员丹·S·沙利文那里分流选票。这位退休的沙利文先生此前否认有此类阴险目的。但10月28日，《纽约时报》报道说，民主党竞选工作人员悄悄努力招募候选人，包括沙利文先生，这些候选人可能会损害在任参议员连任的机会。
DEMOCRATS NEED a net gain of four Senate seats to take control of the upper chamber of Congress. Now, with election day looming on November 3rd, a state crucial to that effort is descending into chaos. Republicans have asserted for months that Dan J. Sullivan, a retired teacher living in a small fishing village, launched a Senate campaign to confuse voters and siphon votes from Dan S. Sullivan, the Republican incumbent. Mr Sullivan, the retiree, previously denied such devious aims. But on October 28th the New York Times reported that Democratic campaign operatives worked quietly to recruit candidates, including Mr Sullivan, who might hurt the sitting senator’s chance of re-election.
参议院民主党候选人玛丽·佩尔托拉否认对该计划有任何个人了解。然而，这件事对她以及全国民主党来说是一场噩梦。在竞选的最后几天里，佩尔托拉女士本应谈论汽油价格或深海拖网捕捞，却被迫为其工作人员的道德问题辩护。特朗普政府此前已提起诉讼，以防止在现任参议员沙利文落败的情况下认证阿拉斯加州的选举结果；白宫现在认为，民主党不光彩的把戏加强了其论点。这场风波可能持续数周。
Mary Peltola, the Democratic candidate for Senate, denies any personal knowledge of the scheme. However the affair is a nightmare for her—and national Democrats. Rather than talking about petrol prices or deep-sea trawling in the closing days of the campaign, Ms Peltola is being forced to defend the ethics of her staff. The Trump administration had already filed a lawsuit to prevent the certification of Alaska’s election should Mr Sullivan, the incumbent, lose; the White House now reckons Democrats’ unsavoury antics bolster its case. The saga could drag on for weeks.
暗箱操作选票虽然不光彩，但既不违法，历史也表明其效果并不显著。2024年，华盛顿州的一名共和党积极分子说服了两个名叫鲍勃·弗格森（Bob Ferguson）的人作为民主党人参加州长竞选，对阵第三个鲍勃·弗格森——后者当时是该州的检察长，现在是州长。6月，阿拉斯加州最高法院裁定，退休人员沙利文（Mr Sullivan）确实是一名符合资格的候选人。
Ballot stacking, though ignoble, is neither illegal nor, history suggests, particularly effective. In 2024 a Republican activist in Washington convinced two Bob Fergusons to run as Democrats in the governor’s race against a third Bob Ferguson, who was the state’s attorney general—and is now governor. In June Alaska’s supreme court ruled that Mr Sullivan, the retiree, was indeed an eligible candidate.
该州的选举官员试图在选票上对不同的沙利文加以区分，以减少选民的困惑。沙利文参议员被列为“沙利文，丹·S.（注册共和党人）现任议员”。由于阿拉斯加州采用排序选择投票制，打算选择现任议员的阿拉斯加选民可以将两位沙利文都排在佩尔托拉（Ms Peltola）女士之前，以确保他们的选票不会被浪费。
The state’s election officials have tried to differentiate the Sullivans on the ballot to limit voter confusion. Senator Sullivan is listed as “Sullivan, Dan S. (Registered Republican) Incumbent”. Because Alaska uses ranked-choice voting, Alaskans who intend to pick the incumbent rank can rank both Sullivans ahead of Ms Peltola, to ensure that their votes won’t be wasted.
唐纳德·特朗普的司法部认为这还不够。在《纽约时报》的报道发布前，即10月22日，该部在联邦法院提起诉讼，寻求在现任议员以微弱劣势落败时阻止选举结果认证。由于美国选举由各州而非联邦政府管理，阿拉斯加选举官员已动议驳回该案，理由是“没有法律依据”支持联邦政府介入其对丹·沙利文的处理。在一份法庭之友简报中，加州大学洛杉矶分校选举法专家里克·哈森写道，特朗普政府“提出了一种‘赢了算我的，输了算你的’情景，只对一种结果有利。”
Donald Trump’s Department of Justice (DoJ) deemed this insufficient. On October 22nd, before the report from the Times, it filed suit in federal court to block certification of the race if the incumbent loses narrowly. Because elections in America are run by states, not the federal government, Alaska’s election officials have moved to dismiss the case, arguing that “no legal authority” supports federal involvement in its handling of the Dan Sullivans. In an amicus brief, Rick Hasen, an election-law expert at the University of California, Los Angeles, wrote that the Trump administration “proposes a ‘heads we win, tails you lose’ scenario that favors only one outcome.”
现在，特朗普先生、一些阿拉斯加共和党人和司法部正利用《时报》的报道，对选举诚信提出新的质疑。特朗普先生在“真相社交”网站上称，所谓的“堆叠选票”行为是“对美国公众的欺诈”。阿拉斯加即将卸任的共和党州长迈克·邓利维已下令对该事项展开州级调查。作为其自身刑事调查的一部分，司法部已向几名据称与该计划有关的民主党人发出传票。
Now Mr Trump, some Alaska Republicans and the DoJ are using the Times report to cast fresh doubt on the election’s integrity. On Truth Social Mr Trump called the alleged ballot stacking “A FRAUD ON THE AMERICAN PUBLIC”. Mike Dunleavy, Alaska’s outgoing Republican governor, has ordered a state investigation of the matter. As part of its own criminal probe, the DoJ has issued subpoenas to several Democrats allegedly tied to the scheme.
无论是诉讼还是《时报》的报道，都未挖掘出证据表明沙利文先生因参选而受贿，或他犯有伪证罪。
None of the litigation, nor the Times’s reporting, has unearthed evidence that Mr Sullivan was bribed to run or that he perjured himself.
佩尔托拉女士对选民的吸引力在于她务实、富有同理心的形象。作为阿拉斯加原住民，她在库斯科克维姆河畔长大，以捕鱼为生，更愿意称自己为阿拉斯加人而非民主党人。上个月，《经济学人》在阿拉斯加科迪亚克岛走访选民时，有几人表示支持这位前众议员，因为她“相当好”且“诚实”。指控民主党操盘手为她从事此类欺骗行径，可能会打碎这一形象。
Ms Peltola’s appeal to voters rests on her no-nonsense, empathetic persona. An Alaska Native, she grew up fishing on the Kuskokwim River and prefers to call herself an Alaskan rather than a Democrat. When The Economist met voters last month on the Alaskan island of Kodiak, several said they supported the former congresswoman because she was “quite nice” and “honest”. Allegations that Democratic operatives engaged in such chicanery on her behalf may shatter that image.
在指控、调查和诉讼纷至沓来之际，选民们已经开始表达自己的意见。截至10月31日，阿拉斯加州约有14%的选民已投下选票。然而，涉及两位丹·沙利文的这场风波不会在选举日结束。该州计票速度缓慢，既因为部分社区地处偏远，也因为它接受海外选民在选举日后15天内寄回的邮寄选票。其排序选择制选票的计票将在11月18日之前进行；选举官员希望在25日之前认证结果。
While accusations, investigations and lawsuits fly, voters are already having their say. As of October 31st, roughly 14% of Alaska’s voters had cast their ballots. However, the double Dan Sullivan saga will not end on election day. The state is slow to count votes, both because some of its communities are so remote and because it accepts mail ballots from overseas voters for 15 days following election day. Its tabulation of ranked-choice votes won’t occur until November 18th; election officials hope to certify results by the 25th.
如果佩托拉女士获胜，一些共和党人可能会大喊不公。他们已经开始为如何阻止她就职铺路。邓利维先生暗示，该州认证选举的流程可能需要“被停止或改变”。选举部门主任负责认证结果。但负责监督阿拉斯加州选举的共和党副州长南希·达尔斯特罗姆，如果邓利维先生或达尔斯特罗姆女士试图中断这一流程，可能会引发更多诉讼。
If Ms Peltola wins, some Republicans will probably cry foul. They are already laying the groundwork for how they might prevent her from being seated. Mr Dunleavy has suggested that the state’s process for certifying the election may need to be “stopped or changed”. The director of the Division of Elections certifies results. But the Republican lieutenant governor, Nancy Dahlstrom, presides over Alaska’s elections.
沙利文参议员则表示，他将接受选举结果。民主党可能在其他地方赢得足够多的席位，从而无需依赖阿拉斯加州来掌控参议院。如果他们做不到，参议院多数党的归属可能要在阿拉斯加州通过诉讼一直拖到12月。■
If Mr Dunleavy or Ms Dahlstrom try to interrupt the process, that may yield more lawsuits. Senator Sullivan, for his part, has said he will accept the results of the election. Democrats may win enough races elsewhere that they will not need Alaska to secure control of the Senate. If they don’t, the fate of the Senate majority may be litigated in Alaska into December. ■