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关于阿拉斯加丹·沙利文那些把戏的真相The Truth About the Alaska Dan Sullivan Shenanigans

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丹·沙利文与丹·沙利文。《Slate》图片合成。照片由杰奎琳·马丁/Pool/Getty Images和丹·沙利文提供。Dan Sullivan and Dan Sullivan. Photo illustration by Slate. Photos by Jacquelyn Martin/Pool/Getty Images and Dan Sullivan.

这凸显了一个鲜为人知的故事,讲述特朗普如何改变法律——或法律如何反击——并让您了解《Slate》法学团队的最新动态。

that highlights one under-the-radar story about how Trump is changing the law—or how the law is pushing back—and keeps you posted on the latest from Slate’s Jurisprudence team.

本周早些时候,《纽约时报》刊登了一篇长篇特稿,详述民主党籍参议员候选人玛丽·佩尔托拉的盟友如何在今年阿拉斯加的参议院竞选中“操纵”选票,安插能帮助她击败共和党现任参议员丹·沙利文的候选人。由于这些努力,当阿拉斯加选民下周去投票时,选票上将出现一位名叫丹尼尔·J·沙利文的退休教师,他曾在之前的选举中投给佩尔托拉,据《纽约时报》报道,他是由民主党操盘手招募来扮演“搅局者”角色的。

Earlier this week, the New York Times published a splashy feature detailing how allies of Mary Peltola, the Democratic nominee in this year’s Senate race in Alaska, worked to “stack” the ballot with candidates who could help her defeat the Republican incumbent, Dan Sullivan. As a result of these efforts, when Alaskans go to the polls next week, appearing alongside Peltola and Sullivan on the ballot will be one Daniel J. Sullivan, a retired teacher who voted for Peltola in previous elections—and who, according to the Times, was recruited by Democratic-operative types to play the spoiler role.

《纽约时报》隐含地将丹尼尔·J·沙利文的参选描绘为一种左右选情的肮脏伎俩,这需要几点说明。首先也是最重要的,阿拉斯加采用排序复选制,这意味着如果沙利文参议员的支持者对两个选项感到困惑,可以直接同时投给两人。其次,佩尔托拉在8月初选中以8个百分点的优势击败沙利文参议员,而丹尼尔·J·沙利文仅获得2.5%的选票——这固然有一定分量,但远未达到佩尔托拉的胜选优势。

The Times’ implicit framing of Daniel J. Sullivan’s candidacy as an election-swinging dirty trick requires a few caveats. First and most important, Alaska uses ranked choice voting, which means that Sen. Sullivan supporters confused by their two options can simply vote for both. Second, Peltola beat Sen. Sullivan by 8 points in the August primary, and Daniel J. Sullivan picked up 2.5 percent of the vote—significant, sure, but nowhere close to Peltola’s margin of victory.

第三,阿拉斯加选举官员已竭尽全力在选票上区分这两位沙利文,采用不同的姓名显示方式,并将丹·沙利文标注为现任议员。

Third, Alaska officials have taken great pains to distinguish the two Sullivans on the ballot, displaying their names differently and designating Dan Sullivan as the incumbent.

此外,就实际情况而言,如果您认为在一场势均力敌的参议院竞选中,出现一位与处于不利地位的现任议员同名同姓的人,在共和党形势严峻的一年完全是巧合,我可靠地获悉“通往无处的大桥”终究会建成,我可以以优惠价格卖给您。

Also, just speaking practically here, if you believed that the presence in a tightly contested Senate race of a person with the same name as a vulnerable incumbent in a tough year for Republicans was a complete coincidence, I have it on good authority that the bridge to nowhere is getting built after all, and I would sell it to you for a favorable price.

这些事实丝毫没有阻止唐纳德·特朗普总统及其共和党同僚对这一“把戏”大发雷霆。《纽约时报》报道发表前,司法部官员遵照总统指示,已提起诉讼,试图阻止州政府官员认证选举结果——前提是如果佩尔托拉击败丹·沙利文的优势小于丹尼尔·J·沙利文的得票份额。(同样,得益于排序选择投票制,这种情形极不可能发生,但请继续往下看。)

None of these facts have prevented President Donald Trump and his fellow Republicans from getting very angry about this stunt. Before the Times story was published, Justice Department officials, at the president’s direction, had filed a lawsuit seeking to block state officials from certifying the results if Peltola beats Dan Sullivan by less than Daniel J. Sullivan’s share of the vote. (Again, thanks to ranked choice voting, this scenario is extremely farfetched, but stay with me.)

报道刊出后,特朗普进一步升级攻势,呼吁对佩尔托拉和“虚假的丹·沙利文”提起刑事指控。他还要求将两人都从选票上除名,这会让担心失去参议院席位的共和党人少操一份心。

After the Times story, Trump went much further, calling for criminal charges against Peltola and the “FAKE Dan Sullivan.”He also demanded that both of them be removed from the ballot, something that would give Republicans nervous about losing the Senate one fewer seat to worry about.

果然,周三,阿拉斯加州州长、共和党人邓利维宣布,州政府官员正在审查“这一阴谋是否违反了阿拉斯加州法律”。早已关注这场竞选的司法部,向与非参议员沙利文有关联的民主党人发出了新的传票;司法部长托德·布兰奇将该候选人的资格描述为“作弊”和“欺诈”。然而,正如共和党政客所有关于选民欺诈的急促指控一样,布兰奇的说法经不起推敲。

Sure enough, on Wednesday, Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy, a Republican, announced that state officials were looking at “whether this scheme violated Alaska’s laws.”The DOJ, which had an eye on the race already, issued new subpoenas to Democrats linked to the non-senator Sullivan, whose candidacy Attorney General Todd Blanche described as “cheating” and “fraud.”As is true of all breathless invocations of voter fraud by Republican politicians, however, Blanche’s claims do not hold up to scrutiny.

他掩盖的现实是,正如你大概预料的那样,针对丹尼尔·J·沙利文候选人资格的法律挑战早已存在,部分依据正是《纽约时报》报道中的细节。不过在6月,阿拉斯加一家法院认定,根据州法律,他拥有与沙利文参议员或任何其他人同等的参选权利。佩尔托拉竞选团队(据称)所为或许是党派阴谋诡计,但很可能不违法,没有人会因此被踢出选票或入狱。

The reality he is glossing over is that, as you would probably expect, there have already been legal challenges to Daniel J. Sullivan’s candidacy, based in part on some of the details in the Times story. In June, though, an Alaska court determined that under state law, he has the same right to run for office as Sen. Sullivan or anyone else. What Peltola’s campaign (allegedly) did might be partisan skulduggery, but it is probably not illegal, and no one is getting kicked off the ballot or going to prison over it.

这起案件始于5月,当时丹尼尔·J·沙利文以共和党人身份申请竞选参议员,尽管他此前从未加入过该党。在州共和党提出投诉后,阿拉斯加选举局依据州法律认定,丹尼尔·J·沙利文不具备参选资格,因为他并非“出于真诚追求当选的目的而以诚信方式申请”,而是试图“混淆或误导”选民。该函件列举了例如他要求在选票上以“丹”出现,与现任参议员同名。

This case started back in May, when Daniel J. Sullivan filed to run for Senate as a Republican, despite never having previously been affiliated with the party. After the state GOP complained, the Alaska Division of Elections determined that under state law, Daniel J. Sullivan was ineligible to run because he had not filed “in good faith for the purpose of genuinely pursuing election” and had instead sought to “confuse or mislead” voters. The letter noted, for example, his request to be identified as “Dan,” like the incumbent.

函件还暗指了《纽约时报》报道的主题,强调了他与一位政治顾问的合作关系,该顾问是“众所周知的民主党候选人长期支持者”,包括佩尔托拉。

It also alluded to the subject matter of the Times story, highlighting his work with a political consultant who is a “known longtime supporter of Democratic candidates,” including Peltola.

沙利文提起上诉,6月,阿拉斯加州一名初审法院法官推翻了选举局的决定。托马斯·A·马修斯法官的裁决要点——阿拉斯加州最高法院后来予以确认——是根据州法律,参议员竞选资格直接遵循美国宪法的措辞:候选人必须年满30岁,拥有美国公民身份至少9年,并居住在其寻求代表的州。鉴于丹尼尔·J·沙利文符合这三项条件,马修斯认定,官员无权凭空捏造一项额外的“善意”要求,并以此“排除一名原本合格的候选人”。

Sullivan appealed, and in June, an Alaska trial court judge reversed the Division of Elections’ decision. The gist of Judge Thomas A. Matthews’ order, which the Alaska Supreme Court later affirmed, is that under state law, the qualifications to run for Senate straightforwardly track the language of the U.S. Constitution: Candidates must be at least 30 years old, have been citizens for at least nine years, and live in the state they seek to represent. Given that Daniel J. Sullivan checks all three boxes, Matthews found that officials had no authority to invent an additional “good faith” requirement and use it to “exclude an otherwise qualified candidate.”

马修斯的意见并未显示他对这里发生的事情天真不知情。但其分析的关键在于,根据州法律,选举局本可以事先采取措施防止这种情况发生,却没有这么做:他指出,其他州也处理过同名竞选的情况,许多州都有衡量候选人“善意”的规则。马修斯总结道,既然阿拉斯加官员“本可以预见这种情况最终会出现”,他们“在候选人提交参选声明后,不得再主张新的要求、标准、限制或资格”。

Matthews’ opinion does not suggest that he is naive about what’s going on here. But critical to his analysis is the fact that under state law, the Division of Elections could have previously taken steps to prevent this from happening but didn’t: He points out that other states have dealt with same-name races, and that many have rules for weighing the “good faith” of prospective candidates. Since Alaska officials “could have predicted this situation would eventually arise,” Matthews concluded, they “may not now assert a new requirement, standard, limitation, or qualification after presentation of the candidate’s declaration.”

《纽约时报》的报道引发的关注,让共和党人寻求施加远超阿拉斯加选举法范围的后果。他们面临的挑战在于,正如《纽约时报》所承认的,“堆叠选票”技巧“在政治中很常见”,“通常被认为是合法的”,且“在阿拉斯加两党都曾使用过”。佩尔托拉对此比大多数人更清楚:2024年,当她竞选连任众议员失败时,共和党人诉诸法院,确保正在纽约服20年联邦监禁刑、因威胁杀害法官而获罪的埃里克·哈夫纳,以民主党人身份留在选票上。

The attention generated by the Times story has Republicans looking to impose consequences that go well beyond the confines of Alaska election law. The challenge they face is that, as the Times acknowledged, ballot-stacking techniques are “common in politics,” are “generally considered legal,” and have been “employed by both parties in Alaska.”Peltola knows this better than most: In 2024, when she lost her bid for reelection to the House, Republicans went to court to ensure that Eric Hafner, who is serving a 20-year federal prison sentence in New York for threatening to kill judges, remained on the ballot as a Democrat.

在今年这场大选的初选阶段,外部团体向该州注入大量资金,试图通过让其他民主党人进入大选选票来破坏佩尔托拉的竞选。

During the primary campaign in this very election, outside groups were pouring money into the state, hoping to sabotage Peltola by placing other Democrats on the general election ballot.

直觉上,招募一名与另一名候选人同名的候选人,感觉像是一种更阴险的“堆砌选票”手段。但到目前为止,共和党试图划出法律界限的努力一直模糊、推测性强、荒谬,或兼而有之。例如在 Truth Social 上,特朗普声称《纽约时报》揭露民主党人“在联邦法院宣誓作伪证”,这准确描述了一项罪行,但此处并未发生此事。

Intuitively, recruiting a candidate with the same name as another candidate feels like a more nefarious form of ballot stacking. But so far, Republicans’ efforts to draw a legal distinction have been vague, speculative, nonsensical, or some combination thereof. On Truth Social, for example, Trump claimed that the Times had revealed that Democrats had lied “under oath in Federal Court,” which is an accurate description of a crime, but not a thing that happened here.

《华尔街日报》报道称,联邦检察官正在“探讨”是否“提出指控,指控密谋侵犯选民权利”。确实存在保护这些权利的法律,但检察官通常用它们针对威胁选民或试图诱骗选民不投票的人——例如这名男子,他在 2016 年发布模因,怂恿希拉里·克林顿的支持者通过短信“投票”。(即便那次定罪后来也在上诉中被推翻。)无论你如何看待丹尼尔·J·沙利文的参选,这都不是非法阻止人们投票的行为:他是以真实姓名、在其居住的州竞选公职。

The Wall Street Journal reported that federal prosecutors are “exploring” whether to “bring charges alleging a conspiracy to violate voters’ rights.”There are real laws that protect these rights, but prosecutors generally use them to target people who threaten voters or try to trick them into not voting—for example, this guy, who in 2016 posted memes urging Hillary Clinton supporters to “vote” via text message. (Even that conviction was overturned on appeal.) Whatever you think of Daniel J. Sullivan’s candidacy, it is not an illegal effort to stop people from voting: He is running for office, under his real name, in the state where he lives.

任何被“诱骗”投给他(且仅投给他)的人,实际上依然是在投票。即便有更激进的特朗普检察官决定尝试起诉,第一修正案也将构成严峻挑战,因为追究候选人及其支持者所谓的隐秘动机,将使该国政党已有的许多做法定罪。

Anyone who gets “tricked” into voting for him (and only for him) is still, in fact, voting. Even if one of the more ambitious Trump prosecutors decides to give it a shot, the First Amendment will present serious challenges, since going after candidates and their supporters for ostensibly harboring ulterior motives would criminalize a lot of things that parties in this country already do.

从背景来看,共和党人目前发出的威胁,最好理解为并非成熟的法律理论,而是一种表演,旨在向特朗普传达:他们也对被耍感到愤怒,并且正在“非常有力地”调查此事。阿拉斯加州长邓利维告诉《华尔街日报》,他已告知特朗普,自己正在“州一级进行调查”——如果我知道我所在政党的愤怒领袖想让我做点什么,但我几乎无能为力,且只有不到一周的时间,我就会这么告诉他。

In context, the threats Republicans are issuing right now are best understood not as fully baked legal theories but as performances intended to convey to Trump that they, too, are angry about getting played and are looking into it very strongly. Dunleavy, Alaska’s governor, told the Wall Street Journal that he informed Trump that he is “investigating at the state level,” which is what I would tell the incensed leader of my party if I knew he wanted me to do something but there was little I could do and less than a week in which to do it.

这个故事更可能(也更严重)的含义,在于特朗普及其盟友可能以此为基础,发起新一轮“选举被窃取”的指控。通过现在高调调查此事,他们为日后质疑结果留有余地——不是靠笨拙的电话施压,也不是靠一群特朗普支持者冲击国会大厦,而是动用司法部的制度性权力。引用未经证实的指控,向阿拉斯加官员施压,要求其不认证佩尔托拉假设性的胜选——邓利维表示,他愿意视“调查结果而定”推迟认证进程——这看似希望渺茫,但如果参议院控制权取决于阿拉斯加,特朗普至少会尝试一下。

The more likely (and more serious) implication of the story is the possibility of Trump and his allies using it as the basis of a new round of “stolen election” allegations. By loudly investigating the matter now, they are leaving open the possibility of challenging the results, not with oafish phone calls or a horde of Trump supporters storming the Capitol, but with the institutional power of the Justice Department. Citing unproven allegations to pressure Alaska officials not to certify a hypothetical Peltola victory—Dunleavy has said he is open to holding up the process, “depending upon the outcomes of this investigation”—feels like a long shot, but if control of the Senate comes down to Alaska, Trump is at least going to take it.

这里唯一的好消息是,如果阿拉斯加公共媒体的这篇报道有参考价值,实际选民并不太在意这些。一位选民称这些指控是“我们以前没少听的东西”。其他人对媒体聚焦选票本身、而非候选人的政策立场表示沮丧。还有人理所当然地对“阿拉斯加人不够聪明、搞不清怎么投票”这一暗示感到冒犯。这是阴暗的勾当。但不管好坏,在这个国家,“阴暗”就是政治运作的常态。

The one bit of good news here is that if this Alaska Public Media report is any indication, actual voters do not care all that much. One described the allegations as “nothing that we haven’t heard before.”Others expressed frustration with all the media focus on the ballot, rather than the policy positions of the people on it. Still others understandably took offense at the notion that Alaskans are not smart enough to figure out how to vote. This is shady business. But for better and for worse, in this country, “shady” is just how politics works.

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