奥兰多，佛罗里达州，11月2日：周一油价暴跌，因市场期待美伊和谈可能很快举行，这推动全球债券收益率走低。亚洲和欧洲股市大多因此受益，但涨势在美国交易时段蒸发，因为投资者将注意力转向周二的中期选举。
ORLANDO, Florida, Nov 2 : Oil prices tumbled on Monday on hopes that US-Iran peace talks could soon take place, which pushed bond yields around the world lower. Stock markets in Asia and Europe mostly benefited as a result, but the momentum evaporated in US hours, as investors turned their attention to Tuesday's midterm elections.
在今天的专栏中，我探讨由AI驱动的股市暴跌可能对经济增长产生的影响。当然，这因国家而异，但负面财富效应和较低的AI资本支出可能在发达世界激起衰退担忧。今日重点阅读
In my column today, I look at the impact an AI-driven stock market rout could have on economic growth. It would vary from country to country, of course, but negative wealth effects and lower AI capex could stir recession fears across the developed world. Today's Key Reads
- 今日关键市场动向 股票：韩国 +2%，日本 -0.3%。欧洲 +0.4%，英国 +0.3%。巴西 -0.8%，自10月26日大选以来每个交易日下跌。纳斯达克 -1%，标普500指数 -0.5%，道指 +0.4%。标普500指数七个板块上涨，四个下跌。可选消费 +2%，科技 -2.7%，能源 -4%。苹果财报后交投震荡，Palantir +3%。Alphabet 再度下滑。Marvell -13%，Lumentum -19%（并购交易后）。外汇：美元走弱。挪威克朗为G10货币中最大跌幅，暴跌逾1%。瑞士法郎为G10货币中最大涨幅，+1%。智利比索上涨近2%。债券：英国国债收益率 -10个基点。美国长端收益率 -4个基点，收益率曲线首日变平。油价 -8%，为布伦特原油自4月以来最大跌幅。WTI原油自7月以来最大跌幅。黄金 +2%，仍低于4000美元。今日谈论要点：石油、大选、与虚张声势？
• Investors gaming out Congress control for spending, AI outlook • US Treasury auction changes loom in 2027; dealers eye long-end cuts • New cyberattack on supermarket fridges sweeps across Europe • Manufacturing solid but strain of energy costs, supply disruptions starts to show • Today's Key Market Moves STOCKS: South Korea +2 per cent, Japan -0.3 per cent. Europe +0.4 per cent, UK +0.3 per cent. Brazil -0.8 per cent, down every trading day since October 26 election. Nasdaq -1 per cent, S&P 500 -0.5 per cent, Dow +0.4 perSeven sectors on the S&P 500 rise, four fall. Consumer cyclicals +2 per cent, tech -2.7 per cent, energy -4 per cent. Apple trade choppy after results, Palantir +3 per cent. Alphabet slips again. Marvell -13 per cent, Lumentum -19 per cent after deal.FX: Dollar slips. Norwegian crown biggest G10 FX decliner, slumps more than 1 per cent. Swiss franc biggest G10 climber, +1 per cent. Chilean peso up nearly 2 per cent.BONDS: UK gilt yields -10 bps. US yields -4 bps at long end, curve flattens for the first day inOil -8 per cent, Brent's biggest fall since April. WTI's since July. Gold +2 per cent, still below $4,000. Today's Talking Points: Oil, election, & bluff?
原油价格周一录得数月来最大单日跌幅，因市场升起希望，认为伊朗可能更愿意同美国谈判以结束战争。这发生在美国中期选举前夕，预计唐纳德·特朗普总统的共和党将表现不佳，很大程度上是因为这场战争不得人心，以及它导致的高昂能源价格。
Crude oil prices had their biggest one-day fall in months on Monday, as hope spread that Iran may be more open to negotiations with the US to end the war. This comes on the eve of the US midterm elections, in which President Donald Trump's Republican Party is expected to fare badly, in large part because of the unpopularity of the war and the high energy prices it has caused.
这一波和平谈判乐观情绪，究竟能否终于得到实质性进展的支撑？特朗普此前曾发出信号，称中期选举后可能对伊朗发动新攻击，且他可能面临来自以色列的额外压力，被迫维持进攻姿态。但周一他似乎软化了立场，表示达成协议“可能发生”。周二选举后，局势或将变得稍微清晰一些。至少，人们是这么希望的。
Could this wave of peace talk optimism finally be the one that is backed up with actual progress? Trump has previously signaled new attacks on Iran could follow the midterms, and he may face additional pressure from Israel to stay on the offensive. But on Monday he appeared to soften his stance, and said a deal "could happen". Things might become a little clearer after Tuesday's elections. At least, that's the hope.
网络通行证 AI交易近期受挫，主要是因为日益担忧企业借贷过多，以资助一场规模可能过大的资本支出狂潮。AI对人类潜在的生存威胁引发了激烈辩论，但这些风险几乎无法计入资产估值。同理，网络安全风险也难以量化，但如果AI增加了网络攻击的可能性，投资者将不得不做好相应准备。
Cyber pass The AI trade has faltered recently mainly due to growing worries that companies are borrowing too much to fund a capex binge that might simply be too big. AI's potential existential threats to humanity have sparked intense debate, but these are risks that are almost impossible to price into asset values. In the same vein, cybersecurity risks are also difficult to quantify, but if AI increases the potential for cyberattacks, investors will have to prepare accordingly.
而且要快。黑客上周从全球最大加密货币交易所币安窃取了逾60亿美元，导致该交易所客户提取了近50亿美元。这起盗窃案可能是有史以来最大的金融劫案，凸显了数字资产对攻击的脆弱性。但不仅仅是加密货币脆弱。周一，黑客攻击了欧洲各地超市的冰箱和冰柜，迫使商店丢弃食物，这起事件呼应了上个月法国发生的类似攻击。AI在网络安全攻防战中究竟是助力还是阻力？
And soon. Hackers stole more than $6 billion last week from Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange, prompting the exchange's customers to withdraw nearly $5 billion. The theft, potentially the largest-ever financial heist, underlines the vulnerability of digital assets to attacks. But it's not just crypto that's vulnerable. Hackers attacked fridges and freezers in supermarkets across Europe on Monday, forcing stores to throw away food in an incident that echoed a similar attack in France last month. Is AI a help or hindrance in the battle for cybersecurity?
央行盛宴，第二幕 在美联储、欧洲央行和日本央行上周做出决策后，投资者本周将面临另一轮密集的央行政策决定和指引。澳大利亚储备银行将于周二率先行动，预计将加息至4.85%，这将是其今年的第五次加息。随后将迎来瑞典、波兰、巴西、挪威、英国和墨西哥的决策。
Central bank fest, part II After the Fed, ECB and BOJ last week, investors have another heavy dose of central bank policy decisions and guidance to absorb this week. The Reserve Bank of Australia kicks it off on Tuesday with an expected rate hike to 4.85 per cent, which would be its fifth this year. Decisions from Sweden, Poland, Brazil, Norway, the UK and Mexico follow.
如果有一个统一的主题，那就是通胀，尽管物价压力并不一致。政策制定者的反应函数也不一致——澳大利亚储备银行和挪威央行今年一直在加息，而英格兰银行尚未开始。在巴西，上个月总统大选后，政策制定者突然面临截然不同的金融市场环境。本周需警惕一些剧烈的外汇波动，尤其是巴西雷亚尔。明天什么可能推动市场？
If there is a unifying theme, it is inflation, although price pressures aren't uniform. And nor is policymakers' reaction function — the RBA and Norges Bank have been hiking rates this year, while the BoE hasn't started yet. In Brazil, policymakers suddenly have to face a very different financial market environment following last month's presidential election. Watch out for some punchy FX moves this week, especially in the Brazilian real. What could move markets tomorrow? • Corporate earnings, including Advanced Micro Devices, Arista Networks, Shopify