Indian American voters plan to back the Democratic Party over President Donald Trump’s Republicans by solid margins in Tuesday’s crucial midterm elections, according to a new poll by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and polling firm YouGov.

According to the poll, the Republicans are also expected to lose much of the support Trump gained among Indian Americans in the 2024 presidential election, with many of those voters now planning to back Democratic candidates instead.

Some 62% of Indian American citizens intend to vote for the Democratic candidate in their US House districts, compared to just 19% who plan to back Republican hopefuls. The picture is similar in US Senate races, where Democrats lead 63% to 21% among respondents in states holding Senate elections. The online survey of 1,000 Indian American adults was conducted between October 7 and October 27.

Compared with a separate YouGov survey of the wider US electorate, only Black Americans are more supportive of Democrats than Indian Americans, the poll found. White and Hispanic voters are far less supportive. Why these numbers matterThese numbers could prove important for the Democrats, who aim to wrest control of both houses from Trump’s Republicans on Tuesday.“Michigan is home to roughly 187,000 South Asian residents, and nearly 30,000 registered South Asian voters did not vote in 2022, more than the roughly 19,000 votes that decided the state’s 2024 Senate race. Texas is home to more than 700,000 South Asian residents, and nearly 100,000 registered South Asian voters did not vote in 2022,” reads a recent survey of South Asian voters by the advocacy group Indian American Impact.

These figures also suggest the Republican inroads with the community, a closely watched trend in the 2024 election, have largely faded. An estimated 30% of Indian Americans supported Trump in 2024, compared to 62% who backed former Vice President Kamala Harris.

Younger Indian American men swung furthest towards Trump in 2024, with 40% backing him. That support has since receded: 64% of men aged 18 to 39 now favour Democrats and 23% Republicans. A sharp turn has also come among older Indian American men, who had grown more open to Trump earlier this year. Among men aged 40 and over, Republican support has fallen to 16% from 32% in January, while Democratic support has risen from 53% to 68%.Dissatisfaction from RepublicansWhile the Democratic Party has regained ground among Indian Americans, its gains remain a partial success at best.

The share of the community identifying as Democrats has fallen considerably, from 56% in 2020 to 46% in 2026, with little sign of recovery. Much of the party’s expected support among Indian Americans in the upcoming election comes from dissatisfaction with Republicans. Some 35% of Indian American respondents who plan to vote for Democrats said they were doing so primarily out of opposition to the Republican candidate or party.

The poll’s findings mirror other surveys that have tracked the Indian American community’s growing disenchantment with Trump and the Republicans. A Carnegie report released in February 2026 found large majorities of Indian Americans disapproved of President Trump’s handling of immigration, the domestic economy, international economic policy and US-India relations. Indian Americans have also worried about rising racism in the United States, particularly from far-right members of President Trump’s coalition. The same Carnegie report found that 27% of Indian Americans who did not identify as Republicans said they did not support the party because it is intolerant of minorities, a 10-percentage-point increase from 2024.