世界依然处于动荡不安的局势中：法国因财政状况恶化而出现动乱，美国和以色列也可能迎来重大的政治变革。此外还有持续不断的伊朗战争，包括针对霍尔木兹海峡油轮的袭击增多以及胡塞武装对沙特阿拉伯的打击。然而，在争夺最佳避险资产的竞赛中，10月份的成绩单如下：黄金和比特币是避险资金新受益者的观点怎么了？
The world remains in a volatile situation: There’s unrest in France over its deteriorating finances, and big political changes are potentially afoot in the US and Israel. Then there’s the ongoing war with Iran, including increased attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi strikes against Saudi Arabia. Yet, in the contest for best haven asset, here’s the scoreboard for October: What happened to the idea that gold and Bitcoin were the new flight-to-quality beneficiaries?
也许是时候宣告那些由桥水基金的雷·达里奥和城堡投资的肯·格里芬等人吹捧的时髦的“美元贬值交易”的终结了，在这种交易中，投资者据称正在抛弃美元并蜂拥转向替代品。
Maybe it’s time to declare the end of the faddish dollar debasement trade talked up by the likes of Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio and Citadel’s Ken Griffin, in which investors were supposedly jettisoning the greenback and flocking to substitutes.
在黑客从币安盗取了63亿美元这一历史上规模最大的此类盗窃案之后，比特币的跌势在周五进一步恶化，这打破了加密货币是可靠价值储存手段的观念。但这一崩溃不仅限于单一黑客事件。过去一年里，比特币的暴跌再次确认了其作为一个不那么秘密的身份——纳斯达克100指数的杠杆化衍生品（只不过，最近它只在科技股下跌时追踪，而不是上涨时）。
Bitcoin’s slide worsened Friday after hackers stole $6.3 billion from Binance in the biggest such heist in history, puncturing the idea that crypto is a reliable store of value. But the unraveling is broader than just one hack. Over the past year, Bitcoin’s slump has reaffirmed its not-so-secret identity as a leveraged play on the Nasdaq 100 Index (except, lately, it only tracks tech stocks on the way , not up).
在黄金市场中，散户投资者已从追踪该贵金属的交易所交易基金中撤出数十亿美元，珠宝需求已骤降至2020年以来的最低水平，且各大央行也已不再提供它们在2022年至2024年期间曾发挥的稳定作用。
In the gold market, retail investors have pulled billions of dollars out of exchange-traded funds tracking the precious metal, jewelry demand has plummeted to the lowest since 2020, and central banks have ceased to provide the ballast that they did from 2022 to 2024.
就在一年多前，格里芬还将黄金和加密货币的飙升描述为一个警告。“我们看到资产的大幅通胀脱离了美元，因为人们正在寻找有效去美元化或降低其投资组合针对美国主权风险的风险的方法，”他在曼哈顿的一次城堡证券会议上对机构客户听众说道。我当时写道，格里芬和其他人搞错了黄金和比特币的故事。
It was a little over a year ago when Griffin portrayed gold and crypto’s ascent as a warning. “We’re seeing substantial asset inflation away from the dollar as people are looking for ways to effectively de-dollarize or de-risk their portfolios vis-à-vis US sovereign risk,” he told an audience of institutional clients at a Citadel Securities conference in Manhattan. I wrote at the time that Griffin and the others had the gold and Bitcoin story wrong.
2024年初黄金价格从每盎司约2,000美元飙升至2026年1月的逾5,500美元，以及比特币在同期从约40,000美元飙升至逾120,000美元的上涨行情，其实从来都不是关于安全或去美元化，而是关于投机——且这股狂热已经破灭。诚然，外国政府和中央银行担心美元已被美国政府“武器化”，在美及其盟友在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后冻结俄罗斯资金后，纷纷抢购黄金。
The run-up that saw gold surge from around $2,000 an ounce in early 2024 to more than $5,500 in January 2026 and Bitcoin from around $40,000 to more than $120,000 in a similar period was never really about safety or de-dollarization, but rather speculation — and the fever has broken. It’s true that foreign governments and central banks, fearing the dollar had become “weaponized” by the American government, feasted on gold after the US and its allies froze Russian funds following its invasion of Ukraine.
但到了格里芬和其他人接受这一论点时，这种现象已经见顶并开始消退。去年的“贬值交易”只是一种模因——是针对复杂市场的一种简化口号。其鼓吹者利用旧的央行消息来为很大程度上由散户驱动的动量进行辩解。
But by the time Griffin and others embraced the thesis, that phenomenon had peaked and was beginning to fade. Last year’s “debasement trade” was just a meme — a reductive slogan for a complex marketplace. Its evangelists latched onto old central bank news to justify what was largely retail-driven momentum.
自伊朗战争爆发以来，美元已重新确立其无可匹敌的全球金融重量级地位——我在冲突头几周就指出了这一事实，且今天依然如此。在此期间，美元对16种主要全球同业货币中的14种均有所升值，彭博美元现货指数近期创下了17个月来的新高。尽管顽固的通胀降低了长期美国国债的价值——正如其对几乎所有国家发行的主权债务的影响一样——但短期债务的表现一直优于黄金和比特币。
Since the Iran war started, the dollar has reasserted itself as the peerless heavyweight of global finance — a fact that I pointed out in the first weeks of the conflict and remains true today. It’s appreciated against 14 of 16 major global peers in the period, and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index recently hit a 17-month high. Though stubborn inflation has diminished the value of longer-term US Treasury securities — as it has on sovereign debt issued by most all nations — short-term debt has outperformed gold and Bitcoin.
对美元的担忧曾有过任何根据吗？同许多时髦投资一样，其中包含着一星半点的真理。总统唐纳德·特朗普已将司法部武器化以攻击独立的联邦储备委员会，并继续维持着不可持续的6%的财政赤字。在他2025年4月的“解放日”关税宣布后的几个交易日里，全球投资者眼中的对美国货币的信心确实受到了打击。但这并不意味着黄金是更好的替代品，比特币更是谈不上。
Was there ever anything to the dollar worries? There were grains of truth, as with many fad investments. President Donald Trump has weaponized the Justice Department to attack the independent Federal Reserve and continued to run unsustainable 6% fiscal deficits. For a few sessions after his April 2025 “Liberation Day” tariff announcement, faith in the US currency did take a hit in the eyes of global investors. But that didn’t mean that gold was a better alternative, much less Bitcoin.
在此期间，为了缓解公众的担忧，发生了很多事情，包括最高法院针对该政府关税及其干预央行事务的裁决——这些迹象表明美国的制衡机制仍然在发挥作用。
And much has happened in the interim to allay the public’s concerns, including Supreme Court decisions against the administration’s tariffs and its meddling in the central bank’s affairs — signs that America’s checks and balances still work.
这削弱了人们将黄金作为对冲美元末日工具的兴趣，这是理所应当的。至于比特币，怀疑者一向喜欢嘲笑其“数字黄金”的标签，但事实证明它有部分合理性。它的实际表现确实很像这种贵金属，只是并非比特币信徒们所希望和想象的那样：正当地缘政治不确定性接近顶峰时，它的价值却在暴跌。
That’s fed waning interest in gold as a hedge against dollar doom, and rightfully so. As for Bitcoin, skeptics have always loved to mock its “digital gold” label, but it’s turned out to have partial merit. It actually performing a lot like the precious metal, just not in the way that Bitcoiners hoped and imagined: Its value is plummeting just when geopolitical uncertainty is near a peak.