HARRISBURG, Pa. — Democrats are increasingly bullish they can deliver a major blow to Republicans in the midterms, viewing key GOP-held battleground House districts in Pennsylvania as central to their path to victory. Four of the state’s most closely-watched House races — involving Republican Reps. Scott Perry of Pennsylvania’s 10th District, Brian Fitzpatrick of the 1st District, Rob Bresnahan of the 8th District and Ryan Mackenzie of the 7th District — have been rated as either toss-ups or lean Democrat by nonpartisan election handicappers, putting Pennsylvania squarely at the center of the battle for control of the lower chamber.

“The path to the majority runs right here through Pennsylvania,” Rep. Suzan DelBene (D-Wash.), chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said during a canvass launch Sunday in Bethlehem for Democratic House candidate Bob Brooks, who is challenging Mackenzie. Still, Democratic challengers in Pennsylvania say they are keeping their expectations in check in the final few hours of the campaign season, haunted by a bruising 2024 election cycle and the risk of reading too much into the polls.

The stakes are enormous for both parties. Democrats need a net gain of three seats to win back the House, while Republicans are working overtime to preserve their razor-thin margin and stave off a Democratic victory that would put President Trump and his inner circle at the center of congressional investigations and oversight. “We will flip the House,” DelBene told The Hill. “I’m confident … but I’m also paranoid. I’m very aware that, you know, Republicans have played games — redistricting, attacking campaign finance, you know, attacking vote by mail, all these things.”

Brooks, a retired firefighter, told The Hill that while he feels good about his prospects, he can’t “take anything for granted.”“We have to run hard. But I agree, and I think we’re going to win this seat,” Brooks said.

“I think it’s crystal clear with the negative attack ads that I’ve been facing for months from Ryan Mackenzie. If he had real policy to stand on, we’d hear about that, not ‘Bad Bob.’”Former television news anchor Janelle Stelson (D), who is challenging Perry for a second time after losing in 2024, said her Republican opponent has not lost “for a very long time.”“We've been doing everything you could do, been making all the phone calls, you know, knocking on every door and sending me and the whole team everywhere we can. We’ve just been doing everything we can to try to get a win in a very Republican district because we want to represent everybody,” she said.

Stelson noted that voters are “deeply unhappy” and “really thirsty for change.”Republicans have been contending with mounting political headwinds this cycle as voter frustration over the economy, the ongoing military conflict with Iran and Trump’s low approval ratings have left a stain on the party. Democrats are casting the midterms as a referendum on Trump — and the GOP candidates who have backed his agenda. Trump held a tele-rally for Perry, Mackenzie and other Pennsylvania Republicans on Saturday, urging his supporters to head to the polls Tuesday.

He did not endorse Fitzpatrick, a GOP centrist who voted against the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act last year; supported war powers resolutions that would limit the president’s military actions in Iran; backed a Democratic effort to extend the now-expired Affordable Care Act subsidies for three years; and broken with his party on numerous other issues. Fitzpatrick represents a district that former Vice President Kamala Harris won in the 2024 presidential race, and the Republican lawmaker has portrayed himself as a member of Congress who’s willing to work across the aisle.

Bob Harvie, a Bucks County commissioner challenging Fitzpatrick, said he’s confident he and his team have done “everything we need to do to win this race.”“I don’t make predictions about elections. I've run in elections before,” Harvie said. “All you do is you leave everything you can out on the field ... and the scoreboard shows up at the end of the night. It is what it is.”Still, he argues that he’s heard from voters in the district who believe Fitzpatrick has fallen short of delivering for them.

High-profile Democrats and prominent party figures have descended on the Keystone State in the final stretch of the campaign to rally behind Democratic challengers and mobilize voters. Rahm Emanuel, who served as the White House chief of staff under the Obama administration and as U.S. ambassador to Japan under the Biden administration, appeared at Harvie’s canvass launch Monday in Fairless Hills. “You know, when you are done knocking doors across the street, you got 10 more doors to go,” Emanuel, who is eyeing a 2028 White House run, told supporters.

“When you have texted the last person and your thumb is aching and you think you have arthritis, 10 more texts to go. Phone calls, postcards, the whole gambit, everybody. This is our year because Tuesday at 7 p.m., we’re putting a period at the end of this president’s presidency. And Bucks County and Bob are going to be the exclamation point,” he added. Malcolm Kenyatta, the Democratic National Committee’s vice chair, also addressed a crowd at Brooks’s event Sunday.

“Believe it or not, contrary to what it feels like, the job of government is to not just provide you with constant gastrointestinal discomfort. The job of government is to deliver and make people's lives better … We can make that a reality guys,” he said.

Democrats fell just three seats short of reclaiming the House majority in 2024, with a margin of 7,309 votes between both parties — including just 4,062 votes in Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District, according to Inside Elections. “When we talk about how important it is to be out, to knocking on the doors, to making phone calls, to reminding people how important their vote is, there's nothing more important than doing that because these races can be very, very close, and a whole difference in terms of how our Congress works,” DelBene said.

Still, Democrats say the momentum building this election cycle is markedly different from what they experienced in 2024. “I think definitely there is a lot of energy on the ground all across the country because people know how important this election is. They've seen the damage that's been done by policies put in place by the administration and Republicans in Congress kind of going along with it, and they're hurting, and so people are extremely motivated everywhere to stand up to use their voice,” DelBene said.

“And so all across the country in swing districts, there's been huge turnout, huge excitement, because people realize how important their vote is,” she added. Emanuel echoed similar sentiments, noting that people are “angry” at Trump and Republicans and arguing that it’s a “different motivating purpose.”“The Republicans will lose on Tuesday. Democrats will need to win in 2027. Delivering a lobbying and ethics reform bill that actually makes changes to the culture of Washington, the corruption. Delivering a raise in the minimum wage that hasn’t been raised in 20 years. Delivering relief from these tariffs that are raising prices that families are paying. If we do that, deliver both change and the trust that people think is broken, then we’ll have won and that’s the most important,” he said.