民主党在宾夕法尼亚州四场关键众议院竞选中占优，民调显示新民调显示，民主党候选人在两场竞选中领先，在第三场中占微弱优势，在第四场中打成平手。这四个席位体现了中期选举中全国范围内的较量。
Democrats Have Edge Across Four Key House Races in Pennsylvania, Polls Find Democratic candidates are ahead in two, hold a narrow edge in a third and are tied in a fourth, new polling shows. The seats embody the fights playing out nationwide in the midterms.
据《纽约时报》、《费城问询报》和锡耶纳大学的新民调显示，试图击败共和党现任议员的民主党候选人在宾夕法尼亚州四个战场众议院选区中的两个领先，在第三个占微弱优势，在第四个打成平手。
Democrats trying to unseat Republicans in four battleground Pennsylvania House districts are ahead in two of them, hold a narrow edge in a third and are tied in a fourth, according to new polling from The New York Times, The Philadelphia Inquirer and Siena University.
宾夕法尼亚州的这四个席位被视为全国一些较量的关键缩影。这些选区包括该州东北角的工人阶级社区、拥有大量西班牙裔人口的快速增长城镇、一个费城郊区摇摆选区，以及该州中部一些较为保守的地区。
The four seats in Pennsylvania are seen as critical examples of some of the fights playing out nationwide. The districts include working-class communities in the state’s northeastern corner, growing towns with large Hispanic populations, a swing Philadelphia suburb and some more conservative parts of the center of the state.
在2024年大选中，宾夕法尼亚州是全国最大的战场州之一，共和党几乎在所有地方都大获全胜。特朗普总统赢得该州从而成功连任，而且它是全国唯一一个共和党翻盘两个众议院席位的州。
In the 2024 election, Pennsylvania was one of the country’s biggest battlegrounds, and Republicans romped nearly everywhere. President Trump carried the state en route to being re-elected, and it was the only state in the country where Republicans flipped two House seats.
但新民调显示，民主党现在在争取夺回这两个选区的竞选中均处于领先地位。
But the new polls show that Democrats are now leading in their bid to flip back both of those districts.
综合来看，这四个席位竞选的民调结果对共和党构成了另一个警示信号，该党面临失去其在众议院微弱多数席位的风险日益增加。
Taken together, the findings in the races for the four seats amount to another warning sign for a Republican Party that is increasingly at risk of losing its narrow House majority.
在宾夕法尼亚州第八选区，共和党联邦众议员罗布·布雷斯纳汉以46%对51%落后于其民主党挑战者、斯克兰顿市民主党市长佩奇·科涅蒂。科涅蒂女士及其支持者投放了大量广告，指责布雷斯纳汉先生从内幕股票交易中获利，当被问及信任哪位候选人处理腐败问题时，宾夕法尼亚州选民给予科涅蒂女士11个百分点的优势。
In Pennsylvania’s Eighth District, Representative Rob Bresnahan, a Republican, trails his Democratic challenger, Paige Cognetti, the Democratic mayor of Scranton, 46 percent to 51 percent. Ms. Cognetti and her supporters have run numerous ads accusing Mr. Bresnahan of profiting from insider stock trading, and voters in Pennsylvania gave her an 11-point edge when asked which candidate they would trust to handle corruption.
在宾夕法尼亚州第七选区，共和党籍联邦众议员瑞安·麦肯齐落后其民主党对手、当地消防员工会负责人鲍勃·布鲁克斯五个百分点。2024年，特朗普在该摇摆选区以三个百分点的优势获胜，麦肯齐则以一个百分点的优势险胜。
In Pennsylvania’s Seventh District, Representative Ryan Mackenzie, a Republican, is behind his Democratic rival, Bob Brooks, the head of a local firefighters union, by five points. In 2024, Mr. Trump won the swing district by three points, and Mr. Mackenzie prevailed by one point.
对这个多元化选区的民调还发现，布鲁克斯在非白人选民中拥有巨大领先优势，因为两位候选人都在争取阿伦敦等城市的西班牙裔选票。另外两场竞争更为胶着。
The survey in the diverse district also found that Mr. Brooks had a wide lead among nonwhite voters, as both candidates court the Hispanic vote in cities such as Allentown. The other two races are closer.
在宾夕法尼亚州第十选区，共和党籍联邦众议员斯科特·佩里与民主党人、前新闻主播珍妮尔·斯泰尔森各得48%，打成平手，这是两人2024年对决的重演。在选民表示最关心的问题——生活成本上，斯泰尔森更受青睐，但这在一个佩里仍在移民问题上占优的选区里，目前尚不足以让她摆脱佩里。
In Pennsylvania’s 10th District, Representative Scott Perry, a Republican, is tied at 48 percent with Janelle Stelson, a Democrat and former news broadcaster, in a rematch of their 2024 race. Ms. Stelson is favored on the issue that voters said they cared most about — the cost of living — but it has not so far been enough to pull away from Mr. Perry in a district where he is still favored on immigration.
在宾夕法尼亚州第一选区，共和党籍联邦众议员布赖恩·菲茨帕特里克以46%对48%落后其民主党挑战者、巴克斯县县政委员鲍勃·哈维。这四个选区中，该席位的民主党倾向最明显，菲茨帕特里克是目前仅有的三名代表特朗普2024年大选失利选区的众议院共和党议员之一。
In Pennsylvania’s First District, Representative Brian Fitzpatrick, the Republican, trails his Democratic challenger, Bob Harvie, a local county commissioner in Bucks County, 46 percent to 48 percent. This seat is the most Democratic of the four, and Mr. Fitzpatrick is one of only three current House Republicans to represent a district that Mr. Trump lost in 2024.
近几周资金大量涌入该选区竞选，因为民主党人认为，今年他们终于能够击败菲茨帕特里克，后者在总统大选中已连续十年逆其选区的民主党倾向而胜出。
Money has poured into the race in recent weeks, as Democrats believe this is the year they will finally be able to defeat Mr. Fitzpatrick, who has defied his district’s Democratic lean in presidential elections for a decade.
在议题上，选民反复表示更信任哈维。即便在移民问题上——这传统上是共和党的强项——民主党人也拥有两个百分点的优势。
On the issues, voters repeatedly say they trust Mr. Harvie more. Even on immigration, traditionally an area where Republicans excel, the Democrat has a two-point advantage.
选民担心，共和党人菲茨帕特里克——其选区在他每次出现在选票上时都投给了特朗普的对手——与总统关系过于亲密。近一半选民表示，担心菲茨帕特里克对特朗普支持过度。
And voters worry that the Republican Mr. Fitzpatrick, whose district has voted against Mr. Trump for president each time Mr. Fitzpatrick has appeared on the ballot, is too cozy with the president. Nearly half of voters said they were worried that Mr. Fitzpatrick was too supportive of Mr. Trump.
尽管如此，菲茨帕特里克在为其政治生存而战的过程中依然保持优势，这得益于20%的选民表示他们计划支持深受欢迎的民主党州长乔什·夏皮罗，后者正在竞选连任。
Still, Mr. Fitzpatrick is holding his own in the fight for his political life, boosted by the support of 20 percent of voters who say they plan to support Josh Shapiro, the popular Democratic governor who is running for re-election.
据广告追踪服务机构AdImpact统计，在这四场国会竞选中，自9月初以来，广告投放总额预计将达到约1亿美元。
All told, across these four congressional races, roughly $100 million in advertising is set to have aired since the start of September, according to the ad-tracking service AdImpact.
总体而言，在这四个席位所在的选区，特朗普的支持率并不高，整体支持率为39%。尽管这一数字偏低，但仍高于他在全国范围内或宾夕法尼亚州全州的支持率。民主党希望利用这一有利的政治环境。
Overall, Mr. Trump is unpopular in the districts represented by the four seats, with a 39 percent overall approval rating. Though low, it is higher than his approval rating nationally or statewide in Pennsylvania. Democrats are hoping to take advantage of a favorable political environment.
夏皮罗今年在民调中大幅领先其共和党挑战者斯泰西·加里蒂，在这四个选区中以18个百分点的优势领先，这与9月《纽约时报》/《费城询问报》/锡耶纳学院民调中他在全州19个百分点的领先优势相似。
Mr. Shapiro, who has run well ahead of his Republican challenger, Stacy Garrity, this year, is leading her by 18 points across the four districts, similar to his 19-point margin statewide in a September Times/Inquirer/Siena poll.
但即使夏皮罗赢得了这些选区约15%共和党选民的支持，这些选民似乎仍倾向于分裂投票，在本地社区支持共和党候选人。
But even as Mr. Shapiro is peeling off the support of about 15 percent of Republicans in these districts, those voters appear poised to split their tickets and back G.O.P. candidates in their home communities.
佩里是众议院强硬派自由核心小组的前主席，他积极为伊朗战争辩护，并支持特朗普的许多标志性政策。
Mr. Perry, who is the former chairman of the hard-right House Freedom Caucus, has aggressively defended the war in Iran and backed many of Mr. Trump’s signature policies.
在接受民调的四个选区中，特朗普在佩里的选区似乎最受欢迎。那里有一半的选民表示赞同总统在移民问题上的做法，其中包括44%的无党派选民。
Of the four districts polled, Mr. Trump appears to be the most popular in Mr. Perry’s district. Half of voters there said they approved of the president’s approach on immigration, including 44 percent of political independents.
选民似乎也支持共和党人佩里对总统的拥护。更多选民表示信任佩里处理移民和海外战争问题，尽管斯泰尔森在生活成本问题上享有显著优势，更多选民表示信任她会“为宾夕法尼亚州普通民众的最大利益着想”。在四个关键战场选区，经济问题被列为最重要：25%的选民将经济评为首要议题，另有13%表示生活成本或通胀最重要。没有其他议题获得两位数支持。
Voters also seemed to back the Republican Mr. Perry’s support for the president. More said they trusted Mr. Perry to handle immigration and foreign wars, even as Ms. Stelson enjoyed a substantial advantage on cost of living, with more voters saying they would trust her to “do what’s best for ordinary Pennsylvanians.”Across the four key battlegrounds, economic issues ranked as the most important: 25 percent of voters rated the economy as their top issue, and another 13 percent said that the cost of living or inflation was the most important. No other issue cracked double digits.
特朗普在应对生活成本方面的支持率为32%。然而，民主党国会候选人在这一问题上仅比共和党现任议员领先6个百分点。不过，民调中广泛显示出选民对特朗普的不满。
Mr. Trump had a 32 percent approval rating when it came to how he was handling the cost of living. Yet the Democratic congressional candidates had only a six-point edge over the Republican incumbents on the issue. Voter dissatisfaction with Mr. Trump, though, is broadly apparent in the polls.
在四个选区中，一半没有大学学历的白人选民——这是特朗普基本盘的中坚力量，也是宾夕法尼亚州的决定性投票群体——不认可特朗普的工作表现。60%不认可他对生活成本的处理。这种白人蓝领选民对特朗普经济政策的不满正在全国范围内显现。
In the four districts, half of white voters without a college degree — a contingent that is the backbone of Mr. Trump’s base and a decisive voting bloc in Pennsylvania — disapproved of Mr. Trump’s job performance. Sixty percent disapproved of his handling of cost of living. That dissatisfaction with Mr. Trump’s approach to economic issues among white working-class voters is playing out across the country.
宾夕法尼亚州的民主党候选人并未在没有大学学历的白人选民中获胜。但他们获得的40%支持率，是对特朗普时代共和党典型基本盘的一次值得注意的渗透。
The Democratic candidates in Pennsylvania are not winning among white voters without a college degree. But the 40 percent support they are garnering is a noteworthy incursion into what has typically been the base of the Republican Party during the Trump era.
总体而言，科涅蒂在争夺四个席位的八名候选人中形象最好。持正面看法的人比持负面看法的人多出10个百分点。这远好于她的对手布雷斯纳汉，后者的净支持率仅为1个百分点。对共和党特别令人担忧的是，他在政治独立人士——这一关键群体——中的支持率倒挂13个百分点。
Overall, Ms. Cognetti had the most favorable image of the eight candidates for the four seats. By a margin of 10 points, more viewed her favorably than unfavorably. That was far better than her opponent, Mr. Bresnahan, who had a net favorability rating of just one point. Particularly concerning for Republicans is his favorability among political independents — a crucial group — with whom he is underwater by 13 points.
选民对布雷斯纳汉的品格也存有顾虑。在八位候选人中，他与另一位候选人并列获得选民认为“品格坚强”评分最低——39%。相比之下，科涅蒂位居榜首。第八选区一半的选民，包括11%的共和党选民，认为民主党人科涅蒂的品格优于布雷斯纳汉。
Voters also have concerns about Mr. Bresnahan’s character. He is tied for the lowest rating among the eight candidates — 39 percent — when it comes to who voters think has strong character. Ms. Cognetti, on the other hand, tops the list. Half of voters in the Eighth District, including 11 percent of Republicans, said the Democratic Ms. Cognetti had better character than Mr. Bresnahan.
在民调涉及的所有议题中，民主党在选民信任谁来应对用于为人工智能供电的数据中心日益增长的担忧这一问题上，拥有最大领先优势之一。在第七选区，数据中心已成为核心议题，布鲁克斯对麦肯齐拥有10个百分点的优势。
Across all the issues included in the poll, Democrats held one of their widest leads when it came to whom voters trusted to address the growing concern about data centers used to power artificial intelligence. In the Seventh District, where data centers have become a central issue, Mr. Brooks had a 10-point advantage over Mr. Mackenzie.
不过，民调显示，尽管该议题在近期电视广告中十分突出，但可能并非决定性因素。仅有2%的选民将人工智能或数据中心列为首要议题。
The polls, though, suggest that the issue — despite its prominence in recent television ads — may not be decisive. Just 2 percent of voters listed A.I. or data centers as their top issue.
以下是关于这些《纽约时报》/《费城问询报》/锡耶纳学院民调的关键信息：2026年宾夕法尼亚州《时报》/锡耶纳学院民调由《费城问询报》合作开展，并部分由伦费斯特新闻学研究所的资助提供资金。民调的设计和实施独立于该研究所。
Here are the key things to know about these New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena polls: The Times/Siena polls of Pennsylvania in 2026 were conducted in partnership with The Philadelphia Inquirer and were funded in part by a grant from the Lenfest Institute for Journalism. The polls were designed and conducted independently from the institute.
您可在此查看完整结果和详细方法论。如果您想了解我们如何以及为何开展民调，可在此查看常见问题解答并提交您自己的问题。谢恩·戈德马赫是《时报》国家政治记者。
You can see full results and a detailed methodology here. If you want toabout how and why we conduct our polls, you can see answers to frequently asked questions and submit your own questions here. Shane Goldmacher is a Times national political correspondent.
露丝·伊格尔尼克是《时报》民调编辑，负责实施民调、分析并报道结果。
Ruth Igielnik is a Times polling editor who conducts polls and analyzes and reports on the results.