Rising fuel prices triggered by the US-Israeli war on Iran could undermine Republican prospects in the November 3 midterm elections, as US consumers bear a growing share of the global financial burden.

Brent crude, which traded at $72.48 per barrel before the conflict began, climbed above $126 following the outbreak of hostilities.

The international benchmark ended the week through October 30 at $113.43 per barrel, marking an increase of approximately 56.5% from pre-war levels.

Rising crude prices have also pushed up fuel costs across US. According to American Automobile Association (AAA), average gasoline prices climbed from approximately $2.98 per gallon before the war to $4.17 as of November 1, representing an increase of nearly 40%.

alysis by Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) estimates that oil shock stemming from disruptions in Strait of Hormuz has imposed an additional $468 billion in fuel costs on consumers worldwide, with US accounting for approximately $160 billion, or nearly one-third of the total.

Meanwhile, a survey published by US-based Pew Research Center on October 30 shows that 74% of Americans are highly concerned about gasoline and energy prices, up from 60% in July and 43% in January.

Mounting energy costs and growing public concern over fuel prices are intensifying pressure on US President Donald Trump's administration ahead of November 3 midterm elections, particularly given his repeated pledges to lower energy prices. The situation has also fueled debate over what measures Washington could take to bring oil prices down.

US energy prices surge The war has challenged the perception that the US is energy-independent from the rest of the world, Francesco Sassi, postdoctoral fellow at the University of Oslo, told Anadolu.

Sassi warned that rising energy costs could undermine Republican Party's prospects in midterm elections, arguing that political consequences are increasingly difficult to avoid.

"Higher energy costs will inevitably inflict pain on the Republican Party in the next midterm elections," he said.

According to Sassi, election results will reveal the extent to which Republican leadership has been weakened and whether administration will be forced to acknowledge costly failures associated with the war.

Sassi also said he does not expect oil prices to decline in the near term, stressing that even Washington's strategy of strengthening US energy dominance offers limited protection against a crisis of this magnitude triggered by its own policies.

Diplomacy key to easing oil market pressures Julien Mathonniere, an oil markets economist at London-based Energy Intelligence Group, said it remains unclear whether the Trump administration anticipated the scale and duration of the market disruptions when the war began.

However, he said Washington's policy tools are better suited to short-term crises than prolonged supply disruptions.

Mathonniere recalled that the US had planned to release 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve over four months under an IEA-coordinated decision in March.

The releases are still underway, leaving US strategic crude inventories at 283 million barrels, their lowest level since 1982, he said.

Mathonniere described rising US fuel prices as Iran's most effective tool for pressuring Washington, saying their political impact is peaking ahead of the November 3 midterm elections.

He said the White House would face two main options once electoral pressure eases: reaching an agreement with Iran or escalating military operations.

Mathonniere added that the Trump administration had already exhausted its short-term options for bringing down domestic fuel prices.

"Only diplomacy removes the risk premium itself. That is why the proposal under discussion in Tehran, reopening Hormuz in exchange for lifting the US blockade, matters more than any reserve release," he said.

He also noted that US gasoline demand fell by approximately 4% over the summer as consumers adjusted to higher fuel costs, marking an unusually sharp drop in consumption.

Oil prices likely to remain volatile Paolo Scafetta, senior petrochemical analyst at ICIS, said uncertainty continues to dominate oil markets, with crude prices likely to remain volatile despite potential weakness in gasoline futures.

RBOB gasoline futures, a key US benchmark, could decline as supply and demand conditions weaken, Scafetta said.

He noted that gradual recovery of oil flows through Strait of Hormuz, alongside potential end to Russia-Ukraine war, could help ease pressure on gasoline and diesel markets in coming period.

However, he warned that regional price differences and higher freight costs continue to disrupt fuel trade, adding that freight rates and inventory le