Tim的观点 今天的美国大选将考验选民究竟想在多大程度上惩罚总统，因为汽油和电价飙升。
Tim’s view Today’s US election is a test of how much voters will want to punish the president for soaring gasoline and power prices.
能源成本历来是选举中的重要因素；汽油价格是唯一以醒目大号数字显示在主要路口的经济指标。但在伊朗战争和数据中心抢电潮的双重夹击下，鲜有大选像这次这样，能源价格——以及从白宫到地方规划委员会推高价格的政策决定——如此频繁地占据头条。
Energy costs are always an important factor in elections; gas prices are the only economic indicator displayed in big bold numbers at major intersections. But between the war in Iran and the data center power rush, there’s rarely been an election in which energy prices — and the policy decisions pushing them up, from the White House to local zoning boards — are so much in the headlines.
据《金融时报》分析，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普第二次执政前两年的平均汽油价格，是历任总统任期过半时的最高纪录。自1970年代石油禁运以来，美国总统都敏锐地意识到，美国人为外交政策目标忍受加油站“痛楚”的意愿非常有限。而在许多关键的国会战场州，与人工智能相关的家庭电费上涨已成为核心争议点，使得这次投票也成了一种公投，公投的是要在多大程度上对数据中心发展踩刹车。
The average gas price during US President Donald Trump’s two years back in office is the highest it’s ever been halfway through a presidency, according to a Financial Times analysis. Since the oil embargoes of the 1970s, US presidents have been keenly aware that Americans have a very limited willingness to tolerate pain at the pump in the service of foreign policy objectives. And in many of the key congressional battlegrounds, AI-linked increases in household power bills are a central point of tension, making the votes a kind of referendum on how hard to hit the brakes on data center development, too.
如果民主党成功夺回参众两院中一院或两院的多数席位，未来两年美国能源故事将面临巨大变化。该党领袖将面临即时挑战，需要决定在许可改革问题上愿同共和党和白宫玩多大力度的硬球博弈。联邦预算争夺势必会重燃关于电动汽车及其他清洁技术税收激励的争论。调查委员会将就从海上风电租赁撤回到与莫斯科的柴油交易等一切事项，向政府追责。
If Democrats succeed in regaining a majority in one or both houses of Congress, the US energy story is in for big changes over the next two years. The party’s leaders will face an immediate challenge, needing to decide how much hardball they’re willing to play with Republicans and the White House over permitting reform. Federal budget fights will likely resurface arguments about tax incentives for EVs and other clean tech. Investigative committees will demand answers from the administration about everything from offshore wind lease pullbacks to the diesel deal with Moscow.
与此同时，一批新的州和地方领导人将纠结要对大型科技公司的用电需求施加何种压力。这些就是我将在此关注直到2028年的故事线。祝投票愉快！
Meanwhile, a new cohort of state and local leaders will grapple with what kind of pressure to apply on the power demands of Big Tech. These are the storylines I’ll be focused on here until 2028. Happy voting!
美国袭击了伊朗的格什姆岛，这是一系列定点打击的最新行动，发生之际正值唐纳德·特朗普总统寻求在其与德黑兰的战争中找到退出路径。
Notable The US attacked Iran’s Qeshm Island, the latest in a series of targeted strikes that came even as President Donald Trump pushed for an off-ramp in his war with Tehran.