中期选举中能源议题利害攸关，从两党许可法案的命运，到针对数据中心和电价的日益高涨的反弹情绪，无不牵动人心。
There's a lot at stake for energy in the midterms, from the fate of the bipartisan permitting deal to the growing backlash against data centers and electricity prices. Why it matters:
重要性：选举结果可能凸显哪些能源议题引起选民共鸣——哪些已成为政治累赘。
The results could spotlight which energy topics resonate with voters — and which have become political liabilities.
- 汽油和柴油价格一直是竞选途中的热门话题，这提供了一个契机，可以看出选民对能源成本的不满在多大程度上影响投票决策。
• Gasoline and diesel prices have been big on the campaign trail, offering a chance to see how much voter frustration over energy costs matters at the ballot box. Data center politics:
数据中心政治：尽管数据中心在两党候选人中都不太受欢迎，但两党在该问题上存在尖锐分歧。
There are sharp differences between the parties, even though data centers aren't especially popular with either party's slate of candidates.
- 重要性：人工智能建设的步伐影响电力需求和排放。
• Why it matters: The pace of the AI buildout affects power demand and emissions.
- 现状：据追踪数百场竞选的 Data Center Watch 统计，32.4% 的民主党候选人支持在联邦、州或地方层面实施暂停令，而共和党候选人仅为 3.4%。
• State of play: 32.4% of Democratic candidates support moratoriums at the federal, state, or local level, compared to just 3.4% of Republicans, per Data Center Watch, which tracked hundreds of races.
- 聚焦：与此同时，Ballotpedia 正在追踪数十项关于数据中心的投票议题，其中许多将施加新的限制。俄亥俄州是热点地区。
• Zoom in: Meanwhile, Ballotpedia is tracking dozens of ballot measures on data centers, many of which would impose new restrictions. Ohio is a hot spot. Control and permitting:
控制权与许可：选举结果将影响跛脚鸭会期的政治博弈——这也意味着会影响两党许可法案的政治前景。
The outcome will affect the politics of the lame-duck session — and that means the politics of the bipartisan permitting deal.
- 他们怎么说：研究机构 ClearView Energy Partners 在一份报告中指出，如果民主党夺得两院控制权，“领导层可能会选择等到明年掌握议事权时，再重新谈判妥协方案”。
• What they're saying: If Democrats take both chambers, "leaders might opt to wait until they hold the gavels next year to renegotiate compromises," the research firm ClearView Energy Partners said in a note.
- 但是：支持现行法案的人认为，指望有政治空间写出一份更自由派的法案、并让特朗普总统签署，甚至能在参议院通过，简直是愚蠢的幻想。
• Yes, but: A reminder that backers of the current bill think it's folly to expect political space to write a more liberal bill that President Trump would sign, or that could even pass the Senate.
- 威胁等级：如果结果非常胶着会怎样？ClearView 指出，如果特朗普及其盟友对结果提出异议，“数周的选后争斗可能会使任何法案的通过变得复杂”。
• Threat level: What if the results are very close? ClearView notes that if Trump and allies contest the results, "weeks of post-election skirmishing could complicate passage of any bill." Political lessons:
政治启示：选举结果可能为能源和气候政策的走向提供线索。
The results could offer clues about where energy and climate policy are headed.
- 现状：出口民调向来不以精准著称，但它或许能提供一个风向标，显示选民究竟有多在意——或不在意——数据中心。
• State of play: Exit polling is not famously precise, but it could provide a barometer of how much voters truly care — or not — about data centers.
- 同样值得关注的是，那些将高昂汽油和柴油价格作为竞选核心议题的候选人今晚表现如何。
• It's also worth watching how candidates who made high gas and diesel prices central to their campaigns fare tonight.
- 我观察：请留意进步派与中间派民主党人的表现对比。如果后者表现超出预期，这可能是另一个迹象，表明激进的气候政策不会在民主党内重新流行。
• My thought bubble: Keep an eye on the performance of progressive vs. centrist Democrats. If the latter overperform, it could be another sign that aggressive climate policies won't return to vogue with Dems.
- 聚焦：假设宾夕法尼亚州州长乔什·夏皮罗（民主党）的胜利甚至比预期更大获全胜。这可能会在2028年周期（届时他可能竞选总统）为更多中间派、接受石油天然气的候选人提供助力。
• Zoom in: Let's say, for instance, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro's (D) victory is even more of a blowout than expected. That could bolster more centrist, oil and gas-accepting candidates in the 2028 cycle (when he might run for president).
下一届国会：无论哪党控制参众两院，如果许可法案搁浅，都别指望会有太多机会通过重大新能源法案。
The next Congress: Regardless of chamber control, don't look for many opportunities for big new energy laws if permitting goes kaput.
- 话虽如此：为2028年白宫竞选造势和定位的“信息传递法案”将不乏其数。参议院民主党领袖查克·舒默（纽约州）已承诺将推动恢复2025年共和党预算法中被废除的清洁能源税收抵免。
• Yes, but: There will be no shortage of messaging bills and positioning for the 2028 White House race. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) has pledged to bring back clean energy tax credits killed in the 2025 GOP budget law.
- 我们在关注：在核能和地热能方面存在有限的共同立足点。例如，范围广泛的参议院许可法案包含数项已获众议院通过的两党地热能法案。
• What we're watching: Limited chances for common ground around nuclear power and geothermal. For instance, the wide-ranging Senate permitting bill contains several bipartisan geothermal bills that already cleared the House.
监督权力：如果民主党夺得任一议院控制权，预计将对白宫能源政策和投资展开激进调查，这是我们最近探讨过的一个话题。
Oversight power: If Democrats take control of either chamber, expect aggressive investigations of White House energy policies and investments, a topic we recently explored.
州公用事业监管长官：多个州将举行电力监管机构委员选举，这些委员往往对电价和规划拥有强大控制权。
State utility bosses: number of states have elections for electricity regulators, who often exert powerful control over power prices and planning.
- 聚焦：一处值得关注的地方是佐治亚州，如果民主党赢得两个席位，将几十年来首次翻转该州公共服务委员会的党派控制权。《亚特兰大宪法报》有更多报道。
• Zoom in: One place to watch is Georgia, where two Democratic victories would flip party control of the state's Public Service Commission for the first time in decades. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution has more. Governors:
州长：州长选举的获胜者将在从石油天然气开发到电价等各个方面拥有重大话语权。
The winners of governors' races will have a big say in everything from oil and gas development to electricity prices.
- 纵观全局：标普全球对多场州长选举中的能源政策差异进行了很好的梳理，尽管其中许多竞争并不特别激烈。
• Zoom out: S&P Global has a nice look at energy differences in several governors' races, though a number of the contests are not especially competitive.
- 摩擦点：值得关注的一个地方是得克萨斯州，石油天然气利益集团支持现任州长格雷格·阿博特（共和党），他在与吉娜·伊诺霍萨的竞争中陷入了意外的胶着局面。
• Friction point: One place to watch is Texas, where oil and gas interests favor incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott (R) in his surprisingly tight race against Gina Hinojosa.