2024年，唐纳德·特朗普在佐治亚州、北卡罗来纳州、德克萨斯州和佛罗里达州等总统选举摇摆州的选举夜胜利，意味着大多数美国人周二晚上睡觉时已经大致知道选举结果，醒来时发现各电视台已宣布足够多的州，认定特朗普为当选总统。两年后，国会控制权岌岌可危。共和党试图在两院保住微弱多数，而民主党则试图在特朗普任期最后两年夺取华盛顿的权力。
In 2024, Donald Trump’s election night wins in the presidential battlegrounds of Georgia, North Carolina, Texas and Florida meant that most Americans went to bed on Tuesday with a good idea of the result of the election — and woke up to the networks having called enough states to declare Trump the president-elect. Two years later, control of Congress is at stake. Republicans are trying to hang on to slim majorities in both chambers as Democrats try to wrest power in Washington for the final two years of Trump’s term.
在公众民调中，民主党在众议院和若干关键参议院选举中占据很大优势——如果这些数字准确，那么NBC新闻可能在选举夜就预测出两院的控制权归属。但更可能的是，确定重要选举的胜者需要时间。当然，包括决策台在内的任何人，都要等到选举夜才知道会发生什么，但我们可能在夜间较早的时候就能大致了解各场竞选的走势。
Democrats are heavily favored in public polling in the House and in a number of key Senate contests — and if those numbers prove accurate, it’s possible that NBC News could project control of both chambers on election night. But it’s more likely that determining the winners in important races will take time. Of course, no one, including the Decision Desk, will know what will unfold until election night, but we will have a good sense possibly early in the night of how the contests are trending.
我们何时能宣布众议院和参议院的控制权，不仅取决于各州如何计票，还取决于竞选有多接近。关于何时能知道参议院控制权，参议院控制权很可能取决于NBC新闻评为摇摆州（阿拉斯加州、爱荷华州、堪萨斯州、俄亥俄州、德克萨斯州）或微占优势（缅因州、密歇根州、新罕布什尔州）的八场竞选。假设民主党赢得NBC新闻目前评为“可能”民主党的州（包括将北卡罗来纳州参议院席位从红变蓝，并保住佐治亚州），民主党仍需在这八场竞选中赢得五场。
The answer of when we could call control in both the House and Senate depends not only on how states count their votes, but on how close the races will be. When we could know Senate control Senate control will likely come down to the eight races that NBC News rates as either toss-ups (Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, Texas) or lean Democratic (Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire). Assuming that Democrats win the states NBC News currently rates as “Likely” Democratic (which includes flipping North Carolina’s Senate seat from red to blue, and keeping Georgia in their column), Democrats still need to win five of these eight contests.
有些州计票速度快，有些州历来计票缓慢。如果这些参议院竞选像我们预期的那样接近，那么无论这些个别竞选的胜者是谁，宣布整个参议院的控制权可能要等到周三凌晨。
Some of these states are quick to count their ballots, and others are perennially slow. If some of these Senate contests are as close as we expect, calling control of the Senate as a whole could take us into the early morning hours of Wednesday, regardless of who wins those individual races.
美国人也有可能在周三稍晚些时候醒来，仍未分出多数党归属，即使我们大致能判断谁将最终获胜。如果参议院控制权取决于阿拉斯加州的结果，我们都得等上一阵子。在这种情况下，由于该州实行排序选择投票制，要过几周才能知道谁赢得了多数席位。过往选举为我们预估各州计票速度提供了有用的参考，即使周二晚间的具体时点不尽相同。让我们更仔细地看看这些类别——快速计票州、稳步计票州和排序选择投票这一变数。
It is also a real possibility that Americans will wake up at a slightly more reasonable hour on Wednesday without a majority decided, even if we have a good sense of who will ultimately win. And if Senate control comes down to the outcome in Alaska, we’ll all be here awhile. In that case, it will take a couple of weeks to know who won the majority thanks to the state’s ranked choice voting system. Past elections offer a useful guide to how quickly we expect to see votes counted in each of these states, even if the timing Tuesday night is not exact. Let’s look more closely at each of these categories — the fast-counting states, the slow-but-steady states, and the ranked choice wild cards.
快速计票州 2024年，爱荷华州、堪萨斯州、俄亥俄州和得克萨斯州的选票计数速度相当快。我们预计这些州将在东部时间午夜前统计出80%以上的选票。如果历史规律延续，这些参议院选战很有可能会被宣布结果。如果如近期民调所示，竞争存在一定差距，部分宣布甚至可能在午夜前出炉。但民主党必须赢下五场关键参议院选战才能夺得多数，这意味着即便他们赢下此处的四个州，NBC新闻仍无法预测参议院控制权归属。
The fast counters Votes in Iowa, Kansas, Ohio and Texas were counted fairly quickly in 2024. We expect over 80% of the vote in those states to be counted by midnight Eastern time. If those historical patterns hold, there is a good chance that those Senate races will be called. And some of these calls may come in before midnight if there is some spread in the races as some recent polls suggest. But Democrats must win five of these battleground Senate races to take a majority, which means that even if they win all four states here, NBC News would still not be able to project control of the Senate.
稳步计票州在两个关键摇摆州新罕布什尔州和密歇根州，几乎所有选票将在选举之夜内统计完毕，但速度比快速计票州更稳健、更缓慢。这两个州的选举由城镇和市政单位而非县级单位管理。这导致计票过程更加分散、差异更大，持续到清晨甚至周三中午。这些选战何时能宣布结果，很大程度上取决于得票差距。在选举周期早期，民调显示这两场选战都将非常胶着。
The steady counters In two of the key battleground states, New Hampshire and Michigan, nearly all votes will be counted over the course of election night, but more steadily and slowly than the fast counters. Here, elections are administered by towns and municipalities, not by counties. This results in a more decentralized and variable counting process that lasts until early morning, or even midday Wednesday. How quickly these races are called really depends upon the margin of the race. Earlier in the election cycle, polls suggested both these races would be close.
近期民调有利于民主党候选人，且密歇根州的早期投票似乎呈现民主党优势，这意味着该州出结果的时间范围很宽。如果全国范围内的民主党势头转化为实际结果，新罕布什尔州有可能在午夜前宣布结果。但在密歇根州这种情况似乎极不可能，因为韦恩县（底特律所在地）通常在美东时间午夜至凌晨3点之间分批发布大量选票。
Recent polls favoring the Democratic candidates and what appears to be a Democratic advantage in the early vote in Michigan mean there’s a wide range of timing possibilities there. If the nationwide Democratic momentum translates to results, New Hampshire could possibly be called before midnight. But that seems to be highly unlikely in a place like Michigan, where Wayne County, home to Detroit, often releases large batches of votes between midnight and 3 a.m.
这是一个极其重要的选票来源，以至于密歇根州的全州性竞选往往要等到韦恩县的结果出来才能宣布胜负。结论是，如果这些州的参议院竞选像民调一路显示的那样胶着，那么在清晨之前宣布结果的可能性不大。但一切取决于两位候选人在该州的得票差距有多大，而这一点我们要等到今晚才能知道。
ET. This is such a significant source of ballots that statewide races in Michigan often cannot be called without Wayne County’s results. The takeaway here is that if the Senate races in these states are close as the polls have indicated all along, it’s unlikely that calls will come before the early morning hours. But it all depends upon how far apart the two candidates are in the state, and we won’t know that until tonight.
缅因州和阿拉斯加州实行排序复选制，是这一组州中计票最慢的。与新罕布什尔州一样，缅因州的选举由镇一级政府管理，每个镇都有自己的计票和发布结果的时间表。在阿拉斯加，来自该州偏远角落的邮寄选票最晚可在大选后15天送达。如果这些历史规律延续，大选之夜统计的选票将不足以在任一州宣布一场胶着竞选的胜负。
The ranked choice states Maine and Alaska are the slowest counters of the group. As in New Hampshire, Maine’s elections are administered by towns, each with their own schedule for tabulating ballots and releasing results. In Alaska, mail ballots from remote corners of the state can arrive up to 15 days after the election. If these historical patterns hold, there will not be enough votes counted on election night to call a close race in either state.
2024年，缅因州的总统大选结果于周三美东时间下午4点40分宣布，阿拉斯加州则于周四美东时间上午10点宣布。时任副总统卡马拉·哈里斯在缅因州以约7个百分点的优势获胜，而特朗普在阿拉斯加州以13个百分点的优势获胜。今年这两州的参议院竞选，得票差距可能会小得多。
In 2024, the presidential race in Maine was called on Wednesday at 4:40 p.m. ET, and in Alaska on Thursday at 10 a.m. ET. Then-Vice President Kamala Harris won Maine by about 7 points, while Trump won Alaska by 13 points. It’s possible the margins in this year’s Senate contests could be much closer.
缅因州和阿拉斯加州还存在第二个可能导致更大延迟、让人无法知晓哪党将控制参议院的复杂因素。这两州的参议院竞选都采用排序复选制，选民按偏好顺序对候选人进行排序。
There is a second complication in Maine and Alaska that could cause even more delay in knowing which party will control the Senate. These states both use ranked choice voting for their Senate races, in which voters rank the candidates in order of preference.
如果没有候选人获得超过 50% 的选民首选票，胜者将通过排名选择计票决定，在该计票中，得票最少的候选人被淘汰，其选票将根据选民的下一优先候选人重新分配。在阿拉斯加，排名选择计票在选举日后 15 天进行。缅因州没有正式说明其排名选择计票何时进行，但在 6 月，排名选择结果在缅因州初选后 10 天公布。
If no candidate is the first choice of more than 50% of voters, the winner will be determined by ranked choice tabulation, in which the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated and their votes are reallocated based on voters’ next-most preferred candidates. In Alaska, the ranked choice tabulation occurs 15 days after Election Day. Maine does not provide official guidelines on when its ranked choice tabulation will occur, but in June, the ranked choice results were released 10 days after Maine’s primary election.
无论哪种情况，如果这两个席位中的一个或两个对赢得多数至关重要，我们可能要等到第二天，甚至数周，才能知道哪个党派将控制参议院。众议院又如何？民主党只需要净增三席即可翻转众议院控制权，他们获胜的可能性很大。但多数席位的大小取决于选民将多少支持转向民主党并从共和党转移。NBC 新闻 Decision Desk 最近的一项分析显示，全国范围内的这种转移可能足够大，产生历史上最大的民主党多数——也可能足够小，以至于任何一方都可能以极其微薄的多数结束。
In either case, if one or both of these seats are needed to win a majority, we may not know until the next day, or even for several weeks, which party will control the Senate. What about the House? Democrats only need a net gain of three seats to flip control of the House, and they’re heavily favored to succeed. But the size of that majority depends on how much voters shift their support toward the Democrats and away from Republicans. A recent NBC News Decision Desk analysis shows evidence that this nationwide shift could be big enough to produce a historically large majority for the Democrats — or it could be sufficiently small that either party could end up with a razor-thin majority. (The House is made up of 435 seats, all up for re-election every two years, and 218 seats are needed for control.)
（众议院共有 435 个席位，每两年全部重新选举，控制权需要 218 个席位。）任一党派多数席位的大小对我们预测议院控制权的能力具有重要意义。最终多数席位越小，Decision Desk 确定谁将控制众议院所需的时间就越长。如果当前民调高估了民主党支持度，而任一党派的众议院多数席位很小，2022 年和 2024 年的选举提供了一些时间参考。
The size of that majority for either party matters significantly to our ability to project control of the chamber. The smaller the final size of the majority, the longer it will take for the Decision Desk to be certain of who will control the House. If current polls are overestimating Democratic support and the size of the House majority for either party is small, the 2022 and 2024 elections provide some idea of timing.
在 2022 年中期选举期间，NBC 新闻 Decision Desk 在选举日后八天才预测共和党将赢得微弱多数。
During the 2022 midterms, it took the NBC News Decision Desk eight days after Election Day to project that Republicans would win a slim majority.
这通电话是在决策桌预测共和党将赢得加利福尼亚州第27选区、他们的第218次胜利时发出的。最终他们的多数席位数为九席。在2024年的选举中，共和党赢得的多数席位更少——仅五席。此次选举也一直到选举日后第二个星期三，决策桌才预测出共和党的第218个席位。如果今年民主党或共和党的多数席位数是个位数，我们预计任一党要达到218席位都需要数天或数周。
This call came as the Decision Desk projected the Republicans would win California’s 27th District, their 218th win. The ultimate size of their majority was nine seats. In the 2024 election, the Republicans won an even smaller majority — just five seats. This election also took until the second Wednesday after Election Day for the Decision Desk to project the 218th seat for the Republicans. If the size of the Democrats’ or Republicans’ majority this year is a single-digit number of seats, we expect it to take days or weeks for either party to reach 218 seats.
正如参议院选举一样，缅因州和阿拉斯加州的众议院选举使用排名选择投票来决定胜者。如果众议院的控制权取决于缅因州第2选区或阿拉斯加州唯一的选区，我们可能要等到选举日后10到15天排名选择计票完成后才能确定。另一方面，如果目前的民调最终接近准确，民主党根据最近的决策桌分析将有望赢得至少230席，这可能会加快我们确定控制权的时间。
Just like the Senate elections, the House elections in Maine and Alaska use ranked choice voting to determine a winner. If control of the House hinges on Maine’s 2nd District or Alaska’s lone district, we may have to wait until ranked choice tabulation occurs 10 to 15 days after Election Day. On the other hand, if current polls end up being close to accurate, Democrats would be poised to win at least 230 seats, according to the recent Decision Desk analysis. This could speed up when we know control.
整夜，NBC新闻决策桌使用统计模型估算民主党和共和党最终将赢得的总席位数。NBC新闻有可能在选举夜公布这一估计。众议院模型依赖于过去和当前的投票计数；它在估算中不使用任何民调，包括投票后民调。早期众议院指标以及在早投票结束时间或快速计票的州的投票结果也能提供最终结果的线索。肯塔基州第6选区，特朗普在2024年以15个百分点获胜，是一个早期示范选区的好例子。
Throughout the night, the NBC News Decision Desk uses a statistical model to estimate the total number of seats that the Democrats and Republicans will end up winning. It is possible that NBC News will report this estimate on election night. The House model relies on past and current vote counts; it does not use any polling, including exit polls, in its estimation. Early House indicators with clues for timing Elections in states with early polling close times or that count their ballots quickly can also provide an indication of where things may end up. Kentucky’s 6th District, which Trump won in 2024 by 15 points, is a good example of an early bellwether district.
该共和党控制的选区在东部时间下午6点关闭投票，2024年在晚上8:40之前已报告近90%的投票结果。
The Republican-held district has its polls close at 6 p.m. ET, and in 2024 it reported nearly 90% of its votes by 8:40 p.m.
尽管民主党不需要其候选人扎克·登博赢得这个选区就能获得多数席位，但共和党候选人拉尔夫·阿尔瓦拉多以个位数低位数获胜，对民主党赢得众议院的机会是一个有利信号。如果登博赢得这个选区，那很可能预示着一场民主党浪潮，因为全国有267个选区中，特朗普在通往白宫的道路上表现更差。如果阿尔瓦拉多以接近或达到两位数的优势获胜，这可能表明两党都不会最终获得大多数席位。
While the Democrats do not need their candidate, Zach Dembo, to win this district to earn a majority, a low-single-digit win by the Republican candidate, Ralph Alvarado, is a favorable signal for the Democrats’ chances of winning the House. If Dembo were to win this district, it would likely foretell a Democratic tsunami, as there are 267 districts nationwide where Trump performed more poorly on his way to the White House. And if Alvarado were to win by a margin close to or in the double digits, it may suggest that neither party will end up with a large majority.
佛罗里达州倾向于快速报告选票，当晚早些时候还有几个国会选区值得关注。其中之一是佛罗里达州第25选区，民主党人贾里德·莫斯科维茨寻求连任，该选区被佛罗里达州共和党重新划分，使其偏向特朗普9个百分点。如果莫斯科维茨输给共和党人斯科特·辛格，那将是共和党的一场重大胜利，并可能预示该党将保持对众议院的控制权。
Florida, which tends to report its votes quickly, also has several congressional districts worth paying attention to early in the night. One of these is Florida’s 25th, where Democrat Jared Moskowitz seeks re-election in a district that Florida Republicans redrew to favor Trump by 9 points. If Moskowitz loses to Republican Scott Singer, it would be a major victory for Republicans and may foreshadow the party holding on to House control.
如果莫斯科维茨轻松获胜，这可能预示着一场巨大的民主党浪潮。佛罗里达州第14选区和佛罗里达州第22选区也是民主党持有的摇摆选区，被共和党重新划分为特朗普本可以10.5个百分点获胜的选区。鉴于佛罗里达州计票速度快，这两个选区可能是NBC新闻最先能够预测的摇摆选区。如果某一政党在当晚早些时候赢得这两个选区，该党很可能最终获得多数席位。
If Moskowitz wins comfortably, it may signal a large Democratic wave. Florida’s 14th District and Florida’s 22nd District are also Democratic-held toss-ups that Republicans redrew to be districts Trump would have won by 10.5 points. Given how quickly Florida counts its ballots, these two districts may be the first toss-ups NBC News can project. If one party were to win both of these districts early in the night, that party could very well end up with the majority.