周二的中期选举将决定谁在唐纳德·特朗普总统任期剩余时间里控制国会。
Tuesday's midterm elections will decide who controls Congress for the remainder of Donald Trump's presidency.
如果共和党获胜，特朗普可能在接下来两年里面临极少的国会阻力，并推动通过重大政策方案。
If Republicans win, Trump could spend another two years facing little congressional resistance and pushing through major policy packages.
如果民主党赢得参众两院中的一院或两院，总统剩余的立法优先事项将受到严重阻碍，甚至政府的基本职能也可能陷入僵局。
If Democrats win one or both chambers, the president's remaining legislative priorities would be severely kneecapped, and even the basic functions of government could become gridlocked.
周二的中期选举归根结底将决定谁在唐纳德·特朗普总统任期剩余时间里控制国会。美国选民将决定特朗普是继续保持共和党对华盛顿的铁腕控制，还是在民主党胜利后沦为跛脚鸭。
Tuesday's midterm elections will at their heart determine control of Congress for the remainder of Donald Trump 's presidency. U.S. voters will decide whether Trump will maintain his Republican iron grip on Washington or recede into lame duck status after a Democratic triumph.
博彩赔率制定者和民意调查显示，民主党在选举日前处于有利位置，尤其是在夺取共和党控制的众议院控制权方面。尽管如此，权力平衡要等到选票统计完毕才能揭晓——这一过程可能需要数天，某些情况下甚至数周才能完成。参议院竞争预计将异常胶着，如果权力平衡取决于阿拉斯加州，全国可能不得不等待该州完成计票。
major policy packages gridlocked Oddsmakers and public polls placed Democrats in a favorable position ahead of Election Day, especially for flipping control of the Republican-held House. Still, the balance of power will not be decided until ballots are counted — a process that could take days or, in some cases, weeks to complete. The Senate is expected to be particularly close, and if the balance of power comes down to Alaska, the nation may have to wait while the state counts.
斯蒂弗尔公司华盛顿政策策略小组周日在一份分析师报告中写道：“选举结果可能引发即时市场反应，尤其是随着参议院结果逐渐明朗。”该报告预测民主党将赢得众议院，而参议院形势依然过于胶着难以预测。“然而，市场的本能反应交易可能会反转，因为投资者意识到无论哪种情况，僵局仍然是最可能的政策结果。”共和党也控制着参议院，且拥有比众议院更大的多数优势。
"The election results could trigger an immediate market reaction, particularly as the Senate outcome becomes clearer," the Washington Policy Strategy Group of Stifel wrote Sunday in an analyst report, where it predicted Democrats will win the House while the Senate remains too close to call. "However, the market's knee-jerk trade could reverse as investors recognize that gridlock remains the most likely policy outcome in either case." Trump focuses on Reflecting Pool in final public speech before midterms How the 2026 midterms could affect defense, healthcare, crypto and AI stocks DOJ asks Supreme Court to block California counting disputed mail-in ballots Republicans also control the Senate, and with a larger majority than in the House.
如果民主党夺得国会一个议院的控制权，华盛顿的政策制定将变得更加严重僵局。单党预算协调法案——在目前国会席位差距微小的现状下，大多数重大支出和政策变更的程序工具——将变得不可能。推进立法将需要两党合作，这使得政府拨款法案、国防开支和迫在眉睫的债务上限提高等必须通过的法案变得更加重要——也更具争议性。
If Democrats capture one chamber of Congress, Washington policymaking would become significantly more gridlocked. Single-party budget reconciliation bills, the procedural vehicle for most major spending and policy changes in the current status quo of tight congressional margins, would become impossible. Bipartisanship would be required to advance legislation, making must-pass bills like government funding packages, defense spending and the looming debt ceiling hike more important — and more contentious.
在国会分裂的情况下，不控制白宫的政党通常会利用政府拨款和债务上限提高等时刻，向多数党榨取让步，这种做法可能导致将事态推向边缘的对峙。
In a divided Congress, the party that doesn't control the White House typically uses moments including government funding and debt-ceiling hikes to extract concessions from the majority party, a practice that can lead to brinksmanship.
斯蒂弗尔写道：“如果共和党违背传统认知，保持其参议院多数党地位，那么我们预计那些可能对民主党胜利做出负面反应的板块将出现反弹行情。民主党仍将控制众议院，僵局将持续。在这种情况下，参议院共和党人将对民主党以及特朗普的许多民粹主义冲动起到制衡作用。”民主党也被广泛预期将利用在国会可能获得的任何多数优势，对白宫以及与特朗普政府合作过的企业发起调查。多数党在国会委员会中获得传票权力。
"If Republicans defy the conventional wisdom and maintain their Senate majority, then we would expect a relief rally in the sectors that might react negatively to a Democratic victory," Stifel wrote, "Democrats would still govern the House and gridlock would prevail. In this scenario, Senate Republicans would act as a check on both the Democrats and many of Trump's populist impulses." Democrats are also widely expected to use any majority in Congress to launch investigations into the White House and businesses that have worked with the Trump administration. The majority party gains subpoena power in congressional committees.
民调显示，民主党横扫众议院和参议院是可能的。在这种情况下，民主党可能会更激进地推行纯党派路线的协调措施，这些措施虽不会成为法律，但会为该党在2028年总统大选前提供扩音器。特朗普仍将拥有否决国会通过的立法的能力，严重限制民主党法案成为法律的前景。
Polling indicates a Democratic sweep of the House and Senate is possible. In that case, Democrats may more aggressively pursue party-line reconciliation measures that wouldn't become law but would give the party a megaphone ahead of the 2028 presidential election. Trump would still have the ability to veto legislation that Congress passed, severely limiting Democratic bills' prospects of becoming law.
如果民主党控制国会两院，推进必须通过的立法会稍微容易一些。但仍需与白宫达成协议，而参议院60票的阻挠议事门槛仍可能成为障碍，迫使双方寻求两党合作。无论哪个党获得参议院控制权，极不可能拥有至少60个席位。
Must-pass legislation would be slightly easier to get through Congress if Democrats controlled both chambers. But deals would still need to be brokered with the White House, and the Senate's 60-vote filibuster threshold could still prove a hurdle that requires bipartisanship. Whichever party gains Senate control is highly unlikely to have at least 60 seats.
如果有机会，众参两院的民主党议员都会抓住机会主导对白宫和企业的调查。
Democratic lawmakers in both the House and Senate would jump at the chance to lead investigations of the White House and business if given the opportunity.
无论是国会分裂还是民主党完全控制国会，分析人士预计，由于国会僵局，特朗普对行政命令的使用将会增加。
In either a divided Congress or unified Democratic Congress, analysts expect Trump's use of executive orders will increase due to congressional gridlock.
共和党有可能继续控制国会两院。在这种情况下，特朗普剩余的立法议程可能继续得以推行，现状将得以维持。
There is a possibility Republicans maintain control of both chambers of Congress. In that case, Trump's remaining legislative agenda could continue to be enacted, and the status quo would be maintained.
民主党仍将保留一些筹码，主要得益于参议院60票的阻挠议事门槛，但在调查白宫和企业方面将受到限制。
Democrats would still hold some leverage, largely due to the Senate's 60-vote filibuster threshold, but would be limited in investigating the White House and business.