根据预测市场和基于民调的模型显示，民主党有望在2026年美国中期选举中赢得参众两院的控制权。不过，预测市场对该党前景的信心略低于基于民调的预测。
Democrats are favoured to win control of both chambers of the US Congress in the 2026 midterm elections, according to prediction markets and polling-based models. However, prediction markets are slightly less confident about the party's chances than poll-based forecasts.
据雅虎财经周二的分析，预测市场给民主党赢得众议院控制权的几率为94%，而基于民调的模型估计这一几率为96.2%。
Prediction markets give Democrats a 94% chance of winning control of the House of Representatives, compared with a 96.2% chance estimated by polling-based models, according to Yahoo Finance's analysis on Tuesday.
预测市场显示，民主党夺取参议院控制权的几率为77.3%。基于民调的模型则将其几率估得更高，为80.2%。随着选举日临近，这两种估算之间的差距已有所缩小。
Democrats have a 77.3% chance of taking control of the Senate, according to prediction markets. Polling-based models put their chances higher at 80.2%. The difference between the two estimates has narrowed as Election Day approaches.
据雅虎财经分析，在参议院竞选中，预测市场与民调模型之间的差距更为明显。自9月1日以来，两者估算的平均差距约为7.3个百分点。
2026年美国中期选举：民主党在众参两院预测中领先然而，周二上午这一差距已缩小至仅2.9个百分点，显示随着投票临近，预测市场与基于民调的预测正在相互靠拢。
The difference between prediction markets and polling models has been more noticeable in the Senate race. According to Yahoo Finance's analysis, the gap between their estimates has averaged around 7.3 percentage points since September 1.US midterms 2026: Democrats lead in House and Senate forecastsHowever, this gap narrowed to just 2.9 percentage points on Tuesday morning, showing that prediction markets and poll-based forecasts are moving closer to each other as voting approaches.US midterm results 2026: When will winners be declared?
2026年美国中期选举结果：胜者何时揭晓？关于计票你需要知道的一切在众议院竞选中，两种方法的差距要小得多。近几个月来，它们的平均差距一直保持在1个百分点以下，尽管周二的估算显示差距为2.2个百分点。
All you need to know about vote countingThe difference between the two methods has been much smaller in the House race. Their average gap has remained below one percentage point over recent months, although Tuesday's estimates showed a difference of 2.2 percentage points.
雅虎财经通过整合三大预测市场——Kalshi、Polymarket和PredictIt——的数据计算得出这些估算。它对这些市场的每日赔率取平均值，形成单一的预测市场估算，再将这些数字与两个基于民调的模型进行对比。
Yahoo Finance calculated these estimates by combining data from three major prediction markets: Kalshi, Polymarket and PredictIt. It averaged their daily odds to create a single prediction market estimate. These figures were then compared with two polling-based models.
这些模型包括统计学家内特·西尔弗（Nate Silver）开发的一个模型，以及由哈佛大学开发的另一个名为ElectIt的模型。
These included a model developed by statistician Nate Silver and another called ElectIt, developed by Harvard.
预测市场与民意调查之间的差异，已成为关于美国大选预测准确性辩论的重要组成部分。这场辩论在2024年总统大选后受到关注，当时预测市场给唐纳德·特朗普获胜的几率高于许多民调预测。
The difference between prediction markets and opinion polls has become an important part of the debate over how accurately US elections can be predicted. This debate gained attention after the 2024 presidential election, when prediction markets gave Donald Trump better chances of winning than many polling forecasts.
在2024年大选前，预测市场与民意调查显示出约10个百分点的差距。这导致多份赛后分析声称，预测市场正确预测了结果，而传统民调则失准。
Prediction markets and opinion polls had shown a difference of around 10 percentage points before the 2024 election. This led to several post-election analyses claiming that prediction markets had correctly predicted the outcome while traditional polls had failed.
预测市场公司如Kalshi和Polymarket一再主张，其预测可能比传统民调更准确，因为在这些平台上交易的人有真金白银押注在上面。
Prediction market companies such as Kalshi and Polymarket have repeatedly argued that their forecasts can be more accurate than traditional polls because people trading on these platforms have money at stake.
然而，预测市场也曾遭遇预测失误。最近的一个例子是巴西总统大选，最终获胜者在选前仅被预测市场给予20%的获胜几率。
However, prediction markets have also faced forecasting failures. One recent example was Brazil's presidential election, where the eventual winner had been given only a 20% chance of victory by prediction markets before winning.
预测市场行业在2026年中期选举前也出现交易活动大幅增长。Kalshi周末分享的数据显示，其中期选举市场的交易额已超过12亿美元。这一交易量已超过去年该平台在2024年美国总统大选期间的总交易量，凸显了人们对押注政治结果的兴趣日益浓厚。政府对预测市场的审查加强预测市场的快速增长也引来美国立法者更多关注。政策制定者对与选举相关的交易、可能的市场操纵以及这些平台可能对舆论产生的影响表示担忧。
The prediction market industry is also seeing a sharp increase in trading activity ahead of the 2026 midterms. Kalshi shared data over the weekend showing that more than $1.2 billion had been traded on its midterm election markets. This trading volume has already surpassed the platform's total volume during the 2024 US presidential election, highlighting the growing interest in betting on political outcomes. Government scrutiny of prediction markets increasesThe rapid growth of prediction markets has also attracted greater attention from US lawmakers. Policymakers have raised concerns about election-related trading, possible market manipulation and the influence these platforms could have on public opinion.
民主党参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦（Elizabeth Warren）和共和党参议员约翰·柯蒂斯（John Curtis）最近联手，就与选举相关的预测市场提出担忧。
Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren and Republican Senator John Curtis recently joined hands to raise concerns about election-related prediction markets.
他们向Kalshi和Polymarket发送了一封信，质疑与这些市场相关的风险。沃伦和柯蒂斯表示，他们特别担心与选举相关的预测市场合约。据雅虎财经报道，他们指出，这些市场受到大量媒体报道，有时被视为政治势头的指标。
They sent a letter to Kalshi and Polymarket questioning the risks linked to these markets. Warren and Curtis said they were particularly concerned about prediction market contracts linked to elections. They pointed out that these markets receive significant media coverage and are sometimes treated as indicators of political momentum, according to Yahoo Finance.US stock futures mixed as Apple slides 4.5%, investors await midterm election resultsWarren could lead the Senate Banking Committee if Democrats win control of the Senate in the midterms.
美国股指期货涨跌不一，苹果下跌4.5%，投资者等待中期选举结果如果民主党在中期选举中赢得参议院控制权，沃伦可能领导参议院银行委员会。这可能使她在监管金融领域（包括预测市场公司）方面发挥重要作用。
This could give her an important role in overseeing the financial sector, including prediction market companies.
预测市场还面临法律挑战，即联邦法规能否凌驾于州赌博法之上。在犹他州，Kalshi已提起诉讼，挑战该州将其反赌博法应用于预测市场的做法。
Prediction markets are also facing legal challenges over whether federal regulations can override state gambling laws. In Utah, Kalshi has filed a lawsuit challenging the state's efforts to apply its anti-gambling laws to prediction markets.A group called Better Markets has supported Utah's position through a legal brief.
一个名为“更好的市场”的组织通过法律简报支持犹他州的立场。该组织辩称，各州应有权保护其居民免受赌博（包括体育博彩）有害影响的侵害。2024年美国总统大选发生了什么？
The group argued that states should have the right to protect their residents from the harmful effects of gambling, including sports betting. What happened in the 2024 US presidential election?
预测市场与民意调查模型之间目前的差异，勾起了人们对2024年美国总统大选的回忆，当时这两种方法给出了不同的候选人获胜几率估算。
The current difference between prediction markets and polling models has brought back memories of the 2024 US presidential election, when both methods gave different estimates of the candidates' chances.
预测市场给唐纳德·特朗普在2024年总统大选中获胜的几率，高于几个传统的民意调查预测。特朗普最终击败了民主党候选人卡玛拉·哈里斯。
Prediction markets gave Donald Trump a higher chance of winning the 2024 presidential election than several traditional polling forecasts. Trump eventually defeated Democratic candidate Kamala Harris.
在选举前一天，预测市场给特朗普获胜的几率在57%至62%之间。然而，许多民意调查显示，特朗普和哈里斯之间的竞争几乎势均力敌，正如雅虎财经所指出的。
On the day before the election, prediction markets gave Trump between a 57% and 62% chance of winning. However, many opinion polls showed the contest between Trump and Harris as almost evenly matched, as noted by Yahoo Finance.
2024年大选当天早上，统计学家内特·西尔弗的模型给哈里斯获胜的几率为50.015%。这一估算基于数十个民意调查的平均值。
On election morning in 2024, statistician Nate Silver's model gave Harris a 50.015% chance of winning. This estimate was based on an average of dozens of opinion polls.
然而，50% 和 60% 概率之间的差异并不意味着某位候选人必定获胜。50% 的概率意味着，在 10 次类似的选举中，该候选人预计会赢 5 次；而 60% 的概率则意味着赢 6 次。预测市场低估了特朗普赢得普选票的机会预测市场同样低估了特朗普在 2024 年赢得普选票的几率。投票日当天早上，Kalshi 和 Polymarket 给他赢得普选票的概率仅为 20% 至 30%。特朗普最终赢得了普选票。
However, the difference between a 50% and 60% probability does not mean that one candidate is certain to win. A 50% chance means a candidate would be expected to win five out of 10 similar elections, while a 60% chance means six wins out of 10. Prediction markets underestimated Trump's popular vote winPrediction markets also underestimated Trump's chances of winning the popular vote in 2024. On election morning, Kalshi and Polymarket gave him only a 20% to 30% chance of winning the popular vote. Trump eventually won it.
尽管存在这一失误，预测市场的高管们仍将特朗普的胜利视为其平台正确预测了选举结果的证据。Polymarket 首席执行官谢恩·科普兰认为，投票前给予特朗普的较高赔率，加上选举夜市场的波动，显示该平台成功预判了选举结果。
Despite this miss, prediction market executives celebrated Trump's victory as evidence that their platforms had correctly forecast the election. Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan argued that the higher odds given to Trump before voting, along with movements in the markets on election night, showed that the platform had successfully called the election.