美国企业正面临未来税收规则的不确定性，因为该国正准备迎接11月的中期选举。选举结果可能影响税收、关税、政府支出和商业规则方面的决策。税务基金会联邦政策高级总监安德鲁·劳茨在接受Hm独家专访时表示，随着中期选举临近，美国企业陷入了民主党人和共和党人围绕未来税收规则展开的政治斗争之中。企业和投资者已经在应对高利率、物价上涨、政府债务和经济前景担忧。
US businesses are facing uncertainty about future tax rules as the country prepares for the November midterm elections. The election results could affect decisions on taxes, tariffs, government spending and business rules. Andrew Lautz, Senior Director of Federal Policy at the Tax Foundation, said in an exclusive interview with Hm that US businesses are caught in a political fight between Democrats and Republicans over future tax rules as the midterm elections approach. Businesses and investors are already dealing with high interest rates, rising prices, government debt and concerns about the economy.US midterm elections could affect future tax rulesOne of the biggest questions ahead of the elections is whether Democrats will win control of the US House of Representatives, the Senate or both.
美国中期选举可能影响未来税收规则选举前最大的问题之一是民主党人是否会赢得美国众议院、参议院或两者的控制权。结果将决定民主党人拥有多大权力来质疑唐纳德·特朗普政府并影响未来政府决策。然而，劳茨表示，中期选举对2028年和2029年税收政策的影响可能比对2027年更大。
The results will decide how much power Democrats have to question the Donald Trump administration and influence future government decisions. However, Lautz said the midterm elections could have a bigger impact on tax policies in 2028 and 2029 than in 2027.
民调显示印度裔美国人在中期选举中压倒性支持民主党而非特朗普的共和党即使民主党人赢得众议院控制权，他们也可能无法在2027年做出重大税收变动。这是因为他们可能难以与总统唐纳德·特朗普和参议院共和党人达成协议。《一项宏伟美好法案》减税面临2028年截止日期根据2025年通过的重大税收法律《一项宏伟美好法案》推出的若干税收优惠，将于2028年12月31日到期。
Indian-Americans overwhelmingly back Democrats over Trump's Republicans in midterms, poll showsEven if Democrats win control of the House, they may not be able to make major tax changes in 2027. This is because they could find it difficult to reach an agreement with President Donald Trump and Republicans in the Senate. One Big Beautiful Bill tax cuts face 2028 deadlineSeveral tax benefits introduced under the One Big Beautiful Bill, a major tax law passed in 2025, are set to end on December 31, 2028.
下一届国会将不得不决定是否延续这些税收优惠、增加更多优惠或让它们失效。
The next Congress will have to decide whether to continue these tax benefits, add more benefits or let them end.
民主党人和共和党人可能就哪些税收扣除应当继续以及民众应获得多少税收减免产生分歧。劳茨告诉Hm，双方都可能面临延长这些优惠的政治压力。
Democrats and Republicans may disagree over which tax deductions should continue and how much tax relief people should receive. Lautz told Hm that there will probably be political pressure from both parties to extend these benefits.
他将 2028 年 12 月的最后期限称为“必须通过的最后期限”，因为国会将面临压力，必须在扣除条款到期前采取行动。民主党可能推动提高美国企业税率民主党也可能试图扭转《一项宏伟美好法案》引入的部分减税措施，包括提高企业税率。
He described the December 2028 deadline as a "must-pass deadline" because Congress will face pressure to act before the deductions expire. Democrats may push to increase US corporate tax rateDemocrats may also try to reverse some tax cuts introduced under the One Big Beautiful Bill, including by increasing the corporate tax rate.
目前美国企业税率为 21%。一些民主党提案建议将其提高至 25% 至 28% 之间。还有人讨论恢复 2018 年前存在的 35% 企业税率。特朗普关税可能成为中期选举后的主要议题关税是另一个可能在特朗普政府与国会民主党人之间产生分歧的议题。一些民主党人支持特朗普实施的某些关税，而另一些则完全反对。
The current US corporate tax rate is 21%. Some Democratic proposals suggest raising it to between 25% and 28%. Others have discussed bringing back the previous 35% corporate tax rate that existed before 2018. Trump tariffs could become a major issue after midtermsTariffs are another issue that could create disagreements between the Trump administration and Democrats in Congress. Some Democrats support certain tariffs imposed by Trump, while others oppose them completely.
然而，特朗普强力支持其关税政策，不愿取消关税。如果民主党赢得众议院、参议院或两院控制权，他们可能会试图挑战政府的贸易政策。
Trump, however, has strongly supported his tariff policy and does not want to remove the tariffs If Democrats win control of one or both chambers of Congress, they could try to challenge the administration's trade policies.
劳茨表示，关税在未来几年很可能仍是一个重要议题，因为民主党人和共和党人在关税问题上没有共同立场。民主党可能使新税法更难通过如果民主党赢得众议院但共和党保住参议院，重大税收立法可能难以通过。然而，最大的变化将出现在众议院，届时民主党将掌控委员会及其领导职位。
Lautz said tariffs are likely to remain an important issue in the coming years because Democrats and Republicans do not have a common position on them. Democrats could make new tax laws harder to passIf Democrats win the House but Republicans retain the Senate, major tax legislation could become difficult to pass. However, the biggest change would come in the House, where Democrats would gain control of committees and their leadership.
负责税收政策的众议院筹款委员会可能会迎来一位新的民主党籍主席。
The House Ways and Means Committee, which handles tax policy, could get a new Democratic chairman.
众议员理查德·尼尔可以组织听证会、向特朗普政府发送信函，并对公司或其他组织进行质询。劳茨将这种局面描述为一场三方政治博弈，这可能使国会难以通过除必要立法以外的任何法案。共和党可能延长针对工人和老年人的减税措施如果共和党保持对众议院和参议院的控制权，他们可能会继续推行党内支持的税收政策。劳茨表示，共和党可能会重新审视在“一揽子大美法案”谈判中被移除的提案。
Representative Richard Neal could organize hearings, send letters to the Trump administration and question companies or other organizations. Lautz described this situation as a three-way political battle that could make it difficult for Congress to pass anything beyond essential legislation. Republicans may extend tax breaks for workers and seniorsIf Republicans retain control of both the House and Senate, they could continue pursuing tax policies that have support within their party. Lautz said Republicans could revisit proposals that were removed from the One Big Beautiful Bill during negotiations.
他们还可能延长现有的小费、加班费、汽车贷款利息和老年人的扣除额。共和党甚至可能试图扩大这些扣除额，或推出新的税收优惠。不过，劳茨表示，目前尚不清楚共和党实际上会将哪些提案纳入新的预算协调法案中。
They could also extend the existing deductions for tips, overtime, car loan interest and seniors. Republicans may even try to make these deductions larger or introduce new tax benefits. However, Lautz said it remains unclear which of these proposals Republicans would actually include in a new reconciliation package.
如果共和党保持对众议院和参议院的控制权，企业对未来增税的担忧可能会减少。劳茨表示，近年来民主党总体上比共和党更支持增加企业税收。因此，由共和党控制的国会可能会使近期企业增税的可能性降低。
Businesses could have fewer concerns about future tax increases if Republicans retain control of the House and Senate. Lautz said Democrats have generally been more supportive of increasing taxes on businesses than Republicans in recent years. Therefore, a Republican-controlled Congress could make business tax increases less likely in the near future.
劳茨表示，政治局势并不总是像共和党支持一方、民主党支持另一方那样简单。美国企业面临未来税收变动的不确定性劳茨表示，由于税法不断变化，企业多年来一直面临美国税收规则的不确定性。每当政治控制权在民主党和共和党之间转移，税收政策的方向也可能随之改变。这给企业规划投资、招聘和未来商业决策带来了问题。
Lautz said the political situation is not always as simple as Republicans supporting one position and Democrats supporting another.US businesses face uncertainty over future tax changesLautz said businesses have faced uncertainty over US tax rules for many years because the tax code keeps changing. Whenever political control shifts between Democrats and Republicans, the direction of tax policy can change as well. This creates problems for companies trying to plan their investments, hiring and future business decisions.
劳茨告诉Hm，这种局势可能演变成一场关于美国税收制度应如何对待企业的“拔河赛”。
Lautz told Hm that the situation could turn into a "tug-of-war" over how the US tax system should treat businesses.
如果民主党重新掌控国会，企业可能面临可能的增税和监管变化带来的不确定性，特别是如果民主党在2029年赢得总统大选。然而，政治分歧也可能使新法律难以通过。劳茨指出，这种政治僵局有时能给企业带来一定程度的确定性，因为公司知道现有规则不太可能立即改变。频繁的变化使公司难以了解未来的税收成本并规划长期投资。
If Democrats regain control of Congress, businesses could face uncertainty over possible tax increases and regulatory changes, particularly if Democrats win the presidency in 2029. However, political disagreements could also make it difficult for new laws to be passed. Lautz pointed out that this political deadlock can sometimes give businesses a degree of certainty because companies know that existing rules are unlikely to change immediately. Frequent changes make it difficult for companies to understand their future tax costs and plan long-term investments.
劳茨表示，如果美国拥有更稳定的税收制度，企业将更有信心在美国投资。高利率和关税可能影响美国企业投资劳茨表示，他个人没有与企业主交谈过他们是否因选举不确定性而推迟招聘或投资。不过，他指出高利率和关税已经在影响企业。这些成本可能给企业利润带来压力，使一些公司不太愿意雇佣新员工或投资扩张。劳茨说，降低关税和减少贸易壁垒可能鼓励企业增加投资并雇佣更多工人。
Lautz said businesses would have more confidence to invest in the US if the country had a more stable tax system. High interest rates and tariffs could affect US business investmentLautz said he had not personally spoken to business owners about whether they were delaying hiring or investments because of election uncertainty. However, he pointed out that high interest rates and tariffs were already affecting companies. These costs could put pressure on business profits and make some companies less willing to hire new workers or invest in expansion. Lautz said lower tariffs and fewer trade barriers could encourage companies to invest more and hire additional workers.
美国政府不断上升的债务和预算赤字可能使国会更难推出或延长税收优惠。
The US government's rising debt and budget deficit could make it harder for Congress to introduce or extend tax benefits.
劳茨表示，公众持有的美国债务已超过32万亿美元，超过了该国国内生产总值的100%。政府在上一年还录得约2万亿美元的预算赤字。
Lautz said US debt held by the public has crossed $32 trillion, which is more than 100% of the country's gross domestic product. The government also recorded a budget deficit of around $2 trillion in the previous year.
当被问及企业和普通美国人在中期选举后应关注的一个政策问题时，劳茨指出了关税和贸易政策。他说，关税就是税收，已成为特朗普政府经济战略的主要部分。它们也影响了美国企业和家庭。一些民主党人正以承诺如果掌控国会就废除关税为竞选纲领。
When asked to identify one policy issue that businesses and ordinary Americans should watch after the midterms, Lautz pointed to tariffs and trade policy. He said tariffs are taxes and have become a major part of the Trump administration's economic strategy. They have also affected US businesses and households. Some Democrats are campaigning on promises to repeal the tariffs if they gain control of Congress.
然而，他们推动重大变革的能力仍将受限，因为特朗普仍是总统，拥有否决立法的权力。劳兹预计，如果民主党赢得国会控制权，将尝试在关税问题上采取一些行动，即使这些努力主要具有象征意义。他表示，关税已成为中期选举中一个重要的经济议题，可能会影响美国选民的投票选择。
However, their ability to make major changes would remain limited because Trump is still president and has the power to veto legislation. Lautz expects Democrats to try to take some action on tariffs if they win control of Congress, even if those efforts are largely symbolic. He said tariffs have become an important economic issue in the midterm elections and could influence how Americans vote.