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阿拉斯加计票缓慢。选举之夜及之后会发生什么,值得关注Alaska counts ballots slowly. Here’s what to expect on Election Night and beyond.

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2024年11月18日,在朱诺百年纪念堂,选举官员在阿拉斯加州选举部门的人工计票审计期间清点选票。这项由州法律规定的审计旨在通过检查每个州众议院选区至少5%的选票,找出机器计票中可能存在的错误。Election officials count ballots during the Alaska Division of Elections' hand-count audit at Centennial Hall in Juneau on Nov. 18, 2024. The audit, mandated by state law, seeks to identify possible errors in machine counts by examining at least 5% of ballots from each state House district.

中期选举即将结束。周二投票日当天,投票站开放时间为上午7点至晚上8点。

The midterm elections are almost over. Polls open for Election Day from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Tuesday.

但如果以历史为鉴,结果可能要过一段时间才会明朗——尤其是在阿拉斯加。以下是关于何时可期待出结果的相关信息。阿拉斯加计票缓慢。

But if history is any guide, it could be some time before results become clear — especially in Alaska. Here’s what to know about when to expect results. Alaska counts slowly.

有些州计票速度很快。阿拉斯加不是其中之一。例如,2008年和2010年该州联邦参议员竞选的胜者揭晓,耗时大约两周。

Some states count ballots very quickly. Alaska is not one of them. For instance, it took roughly two weeks to call a winner of the state’s U.S. Senate race in 2008 and 2010.

缓慢的进度部分源于州法律允许海外缺席选票最晚可在选举日后15天送达,尽管这些选票必须在11月3日前加盖邮戳。此外,在阿拉斯加这样幅员辽阔、人口稀少的州举行选举既复杂又困难,咨询公司Ship Creek Group的伯克·克罗夫特(Burke Croft)表示。

The slow pace is due in part to the fact that state law allows overseas absentee ballots to arrive as many as 15 days after Election Day, though they have to be postmarked by Nov. 3. That, and it’s complicated and difficult to run an election in a vast, sparsely populated state like Alaska, said Burke Croft with the consulting firm Ship Creek Group.

“阿拉斯加选举最显著的特征,就是该州幅员辽阔,以及随之而来的独特后勤挑战,”克罗夫特在接受采访时说。

“The No. 1 biggest thing that characterizes so much of Alaska's elections is just the state’s size and the unique logistical challenges that come with that,” Croft said in an interview.

在大多数地区,选票由机器统计。但在该州400多个投票区中的131个,选举工作人员人工清点选票,然后通过电话向区域办公室报告结果。首批结果预计在晚上9点左右出现。

In most areas, ballots are tabulated by machine. But in 131 of the state’s more than 400 precincts, election workers count ballots by hand, then read the results over the phone to regional offices. The first results should appear around 9 p.m.

根据选举事务处的说法,首批结果将在阿拉斯加时间晚上8点45分至9点之间在线发布。选举官员表示,他们将在深夜和凌晨持续提供更新。选举夜的计票将包括当天在投票站投出的选票、周五前投出的提前投票选票以及部分缺席选票,据选举官员透露。

The first batch of results will be posted online between 8:45 and 9 p.m. Alaska Time, according to the Division of Elections. Election officials say they’ll provide ongoing updates late into the evening and early morning hours. The Election Night counts will include votes cast at the polls that day, plus early votes cast before Friday and some absentee ballots, according to election officials.

根据历史趋势,选举夜公布的结果往往只占总票数的70%左右,克罗夫特说。这意味着即使在周二晚上之后,在势均力敌的竞选中也很难做出任何确定性的判断。他说,选举夜领先的候选人最终可能会落败。

Based on historical trends, the results reported on Election Night tend to represent around 70% of the overall vote, Croft said. That means even after Tuesday night, it’ll be tough to make any definitive calls in close races. Candidates leading after Election Night could go on to lose, he said.

“在以往的选举中,我们见过多达四个百分点左右的变化,”克罗夫特说。“所以我们可以预期,在选举日之后结果陆续出炉时,会存在一定程度的不确定性。”阿拉斯加公共媒体依赖美联社进行胜选预测。

“In elections past, we've seen shifts as large as four or so points,” Croft said. “So we can expect some amount of uncertainty as results come in after Election Day.”Alaska Public Media relies on the Associated Press for race calls.

几乎所有选票预计将于11月13日前计完 选举官员计划在选举日后第7天、第10天和第15天提供更新后的计票数。他们有时也会在该时间表之外更新总数。

Nearly all votes will likely be counted by Nov. 13 Election officials are scheduled to provide updated counts 7, 10 and 15 days after Election Day. They sometimes also update totals outside that schedule.

根据克罗夫特引用的历史数据,首次定于11月10日的更新预计将包含几乎所有的提前投票,加上一大批主要来自非公路系统地区的缺席选票。到下一次定于11月13日的更新时,几乎所有选票都应已计完,最后剩余的选票将包含在11月18日的最终非官方更新中。

The first scheduled update on Nov. 10 is expected to include almost all of the early vote, plus a large batch of absentee ballots mostly from off the road system, according to historical data Croft cited. By the next scheduled update on Nov. 13, nearly all ballots should be counted, and the last remaining votes will be included in the final unofficial update on Nov. 18.

排序要等到11月18日,但选举夜我们将获得原始数据 如果没有候选人获得超过50%的选票,排序选择投票将成为相关竞选的一个因素。这可能包括州长、联邦参议员和联邦众议员等高关注度竞选。但选举司要到11月18日才会正式统计选民的排序选择。

Ranking won’t happen until Nov. 18, but we’ll get raw data Election Night Ranked choice voting will be a factor in any race where no candidate gets more than 50% of the vote. Those could include high-profile races like governor, U.S. Senate and U.S. House. But the Division of Elections won’t officially tabulate voters’ choices until Nov. 18.

不过,选举司发言人史蒂夫·基尔希周一表示,选举官员计划发布原始数据,从选举夜最后一批结果开始,每次定期更新都可能提供选民如何给候选人排序的线索。他说,他们将在11月10日、11月13日和11月18日发布更新后的数据。 数据需要专用软件 选举司拒绝说明为何不在定期更新的同时自行进行初步的排序选择统计,而只是发布原始数据。

However, election officials are planning to release raw data that could offer glimpses of how voters ranked candidates with each scheduled update, starting with the last batch of Election Night results, Division of Elections spokesperson Steve Kirch said Monday. They’ll release updated data Nov. 10, Nov. 13 and Nov. 18, he said. The data requires specialized software The division declined to say why it doesn’t perform their own preliminary ranked choice tabulation alongside the scheduled updates instead of simply releasing raw data.

选举官员计划于11月25日前认证选举结果。任何重新计票的请求必须在认证后五天内提出。阿拉斯加州若实施若干改革,选举结果公布可加快阿拉斯加州有办法更快地公布选举结果。前选举局局长盖尔·费努米艾和前区域主管杰里米·约翰逊在《安克雷奇每日新闻》的一篇评论文章中提出了几项建议。两人写道,排序选择制投票不应为此背锅。“我们可以明确地说,情况并非如此,”他们写道。官员们无需修改法律,就可以更频繁地统计结果,他们写道。

Election officials plan to certify the election by Nov. 25. Any recounts would have to be requested within five days of certification. Alaska could report results faster with a few reforms There are ways the state could provide faster results. Former Division of Elections Director Gail Fenumiai and former regional supervisor Jeremy Johnson laid out a few suggestions in an Anchorage Daily News op-ed. Ranked choice voting is not to blame, the pair wrote. “We can say unequivocally that this is not the case,” they wrote. Officials could tabulate the results more often without any change to the law, they wrote.

费努米艾于2022年退休,此前担任局长11年,她主持了阿拉斯加州前两次排序选择制选举,并选择等到第15天才统计,“出于极度谨慎”,她写道。但她说,这种谨慎已达到目的,更频繁的统计将帮助阿拉斯加选民在更多选票被计数时了解结果走向。

Fenumiai, who retired in 2022 after 11 years as director, conducted the first two ranked choice elections in Alaska and opted to wait until the 15th day “out of an abundance of caution,” she wrote. But that caution has served its purpose, she said, and more frequent tabulation would help Alaskans understand where results stand as more votes are counted.

“人们大概会有个概念,一个更好的概念,我想,事情在每次7天和10天的统计后实际上处于什么位置,而不必等到第15天,”她说。费努米艾和约翰逊还提出了几项立法者可修改州法律的改革措施。

“People would kind of have an idea, a better idea, I guess, where things actually sit after each seven- and 10-day count, versus having to wait till the 15th day,” she said. Fenumiai and Johnson also offered a few reforms that legislators could change in state law.

电子选民名册可缩短早期投票结果的等待时间。当日选民登记可减少疑问选票的数量,而疑问选票需要耗费大量人工进行审核。允许官员在投票结束前处理和扫描缺席选票,也能加快计票速度。她表示,用电子选民签名验证系统取代见证人签名要求,也能节省时间。不过目前,费努米艾呼吁选民保持耐心。“选举局有一大批优秀的人在工作,”她说。“他们非常正直。”

Electronic poll books could cut down on the wait for early vote results. Same-day voter registration could reduce the number of question ballots, which require a labor-intensive review. And allowing officials to process and scan absentee ballots before polls close could also speed counting. Replacing a witness signature requirement with an electronic voter-signature-verification system could also save time, she said. For now, though, Fenumiai urged voters to simply be patient. “You've got a lot of great people that work at the Division,” she said. “They have a lot of integrity.”

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