Polymarket 是一家预测市场提供商。Richard B. Levine/Levine Roberts/ZUMA Press 预测市场网站上的交易者已在 2026 年中期选举上押注数亿美元。在两大预测市场提供商 Polymarket 和 Kalshi 上，交易者上月在美选举上的押注总额约为 4 亿美元。
Polymarket is a prediction-market provider. Richard B. Levine/Levine Roberts/ZUMA Press Traders on prediction-market sites have wagered hundreds of millions of dollars on the 2026 midterms. Across Polymarket and Kalshi, the two major prediction-market providers, traders bet roughly $400 million on U.S. elections last month.
明尼苏达州知名预测市场交易者 Caleb Davies 今天下午表示，他的选举日投注组合价值 28.7 万美元，其中约 10 万美元押注民主党将赢得众议院控制权。他较具风险的押注包括 2400 美元押注南卡罗来纳州共和党参议员 Darline Graham 将落选。
Caleb Davies, a prominent prediction-market trader in Minnesota, said this afternoon that his Election Day betting portfolio is worth $287,000, with around $100,000 on a wager that Democrats will take the House. Among his riskier predictions is $2,400 that Republican Sen. Darline Graham of South Carolina will lose.
“2024 年我相当紧张，因为我不确定——不确定是特朗普还是卡马拉会赢，”47 岁的 Davies 说，他在上届大选中押注了约 5 万美元。“这是我第一次不为此感到紧张，也许是因为结果已成定局。”
“In 2024 I was pretty nervous because I was uncertain—I wasn’t sure if Trump or Kamala was going to win,” said Davies, 47, who bet around $50,000 on the last election. “This is the first time I’m not nervous about it, maybe because the results are such a foregone conclusion.”