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不要低估民主党掌控众议院的力量Don’t discount the power of a Democratic House

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众议院少数党领袖、纽约州民主党人哈基姆·杰弗里斯于2026年10月31日在弗吉尼亚州弗吉尼亚海滩的巴滕大学参加集会,与弗吉尼亚州民主党国会候选人、前众议员伊莱恩·卢里亚同台。House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., joins a Virginia Democratic candidate for Congress, former Rep. Elaine Luria, at a rally at Batten University in Virginia Beach on Oct. 31, 2026.

大选尚未结束,一些人已经开始试图降低预期。随着民主党被看好夺回众议院控制权,熟悉的警告声已经响起:这些确实是障碍。但一些悲观者走得更远:既然民主党可能无法迫使政府配合或推行其议程,他们就应该对调查政府保持警惕。这种论调认为,选民希望生活变得更好,而不是再来一场“问责之旅”。换句话说,追究政府过去两年的行为行不通——民主党应该在甚至还未掌权之前就认命接受无能为力的境地。得了吧。如果这就是你对待政治的方式,你应该另谋高就。

The election isn’t even over, and some people are already trying to lower expectations. With Democrats favored to win back the House, the familiar warnings are already coming: Those are real obstacles. But some naysayers go further: Since Democrats may not be able to force the administration to cooperate or enact their agenda, they should be wary of investigating it. Voters want their lives to get better, the argument goes, not another “accountability tour.”In other words, holding the administration accountable for its actions over the past two years won’t work — and Democrats should resign themselves to being powerless before they’ve even taken control. Come on now. If this is how you approach politics, you should find another line of work.

早在4月,我就写道,民主党需要规划如果选民把权力还给他们,他们会怎么做。胜利将伴随着他们能改善民众生活的期待。如果选民把众议院交给民主党,民主党将不得不展示他们能用这份权力完成什么。

Back in April, I wrote that Democrats needed to plan what they would do with power if voters gave it back to them. A victory would come with the expectation that they could improve people’s lives. If voters give them the House, Democrats will have to show what they can accomplish with it.

这项工作将考验杰弗里斯作为议长的能力,以及承诺采取不同路线的进步派,还有那些胜选可能造就多数党地位的温和派。在激烈初选中激发出的分歧将转移到党团会议、委员会会议室,以及关于哪些法案获得表决的谈判中。

That work would test Hakeem Jeffries as speaker, along with the progressives promising a different approach and the moderates whose victories could make a majority possible. The disagreements that animated contentious primaries would move into caucus meetings, committee rooms and negotiations over which bills get a vote.

对于赢得席位的进步派,尤其是那些击败民主党现任议员的人来说,挑战将是如何将行动主义和关注度转化为成果:说服同僚、通过法案、兑现承诺。他们能否建立超越已有支持者的支持基础——并展示拒绝投票能达成什么?

For progressives who win seats, especially those who defeated Democratic incumbents, the challenge will be turning activism and attention into results: persuading colleagues, passing bills and delivering on promises. Can they build support beyond those who already agree with them — and show what withholding a vote achieves?

温和派也需要证明自己。赢得共和党把持的选区可以改变谁控制众议院。内布拉斯加州的丹尼斯·鲍威尔、纽约州的凯特·康利和弗吉尼亚州的伊莱恩·卢里亚正在争取那些可能不支持全国民主党每一个立场的选民。她们的优先事项将决定杰弗里斯能推动通过什么法案。

Moderates would have something to prove too. Winning a Republican-held district can change who controls the House. Denise Powell in Nebraska, Cait Conley in New York and Elaine Luria in Virginia are competing for voters who may not support every position of the national Democratic Party. Their priorities would shape what Jeffries could pass.

让200多名议员达成一致将很困难,但绝非不可能。民主党之所以推出相似的议程,是因为民众面临相似的问题:住房和医疗费用过高,家庭难以支付账单。议员们在政策上可能存在分歧,但他们将带着大量共同立场到来。

Getting more than 200 lawmakers to agree would be difficult, but hardly impossible. Democrats have run on similar agendas because people face similar problems: Housing and healthcare cost too much, and families are struggling to cover the bills. Members may disagree on policy, but they would arrive with plenty of common ground.

多数派的规模至关重要。微弱的多数优势可能让少数议员在议长选举、众议院规则以及法案能否通过等问题上拥有巨大影响力。更大的多数优势将给杰弗里斯更多容错空间,即使失去一些票也能推进行动。无论哪种情况,议员们都必须决定提出什么要求,以及达成协议的代价是什么。

The size of the majority would matter. A narrow margin could give a handful of members substantial influence over the speaker’s election, the rules of the House and whether a bill passes. A larger majority would give Jeffries more room to lose votes and still act. Either way, members would have to decide what to demand and what an agreement is worth.

国会黑人核心小组将拥有特殊机遇。其成员包括进步派、温和派、资深议员和领导层成员。该核心小组拥有票数、经验和人脉,有助于设定议程并确保其代表的社区看到成果。这需要核心小组内部达成一致,正如通过法案需要更广泛的党团达成一致一样。选民将体验国会做了什么和没做什么——而不是来自各个派系的分别结果。

The Congressional Black Caucus would have a particular opportunity. Its members include progressives, moderates, senior lawmakers and members of leadership. The CBC has the votes, experience and relationships to help set the agenda and ensure its communities see results. That would require agreement within the CBC, just as passing bills would require agreement across the broader caucus. Voters would experience what Congress does and fails to do — not separate results from each faction.

一个当下的考验将是:民主党能否在推进经济议程的同时追究政府责任——并解释这两者并不矛盾,而不接受“一方会削弱另一方”的前提。

One immediate test would be whether Democrats can advance an economic agenda while holding the administration accountable — and explain both without accepting the premise that one undermines the other.

民主党竞选时承诺打击腐败。调查腐败正是他们承诺的一部分。选民在寻求帮助支付账单的同时,也要求就官员谋取私利、滥用职权和庇护权势者一事讨个说法。当家庭为支付住房和医疗费用而挣扎时,政府推行的政策却使富人和政府自身受益。民主党必须揭示是谁在做这些决定、谁从中获益,以及这些选择如何影响民众生活。只听选民的经济诉求而无视他们对问责的要求,那是选择性倾听。

Democrats campaigned on fighting corruption. Investigating it is part of what they promised. Voters asking for help with their bills have also demanded answers about officials enriching themselves, abusing their authority and protecting the powerful. While families struggle to pay for housing and healthcare, the administration has pursued policies that benefit the wealthy and itself. Democrats would have to show who is making those decisions, who benefits and how the choices affect people’s lives. It takes selective listening to hear voters’ economic concerns and dismiss their demands for accountability.

杰弗里斯、杰米·拉斯金和罗伯特·加西亚已讨论了未来的工作。如果民主党赢得众议院控制权,拉斯金和加西亚有望分别领导司法委员会和监督委员会。他们已为调查打下基础;他们将不得不决定先查什么、证据支持什么,以及法律修改能否防止他们揭露的不法行为。

Jeffries, Jamie Raskin and Robert Garcia have discussed the work ahead. If Democrats win the House, Raskin and Garcia would be in line to lead the Judiciary and Oversight committees, respectively. They have laid groundwork for investigations; they would have to decide which comes first, what the evidence supports and whether changes in the law could prevent the wrongdoing they uncover.

共和党将把听证会称为干扰、把调查称为报复。一些评论员将照单全收地重复这些说法,仿佛政府一反对,监督就失去了合法性。民主党必须在继续完成选民期待的立法工作的同时,解释他们在调查什么、已经查明什么、为什么这很重要。他们必须能两手抓、两手硬。这是一项艰巨的任务,但这也是他们的本职工作。

Republicans will call hearings distractions and investigations retaliation. Some commentators will repeat those descriptions as though oversight becomes illegitimate when the administration objects. Democrats would have to explain what they are investigating, what they have established and why it matters while continuing the legislative work voters expect. They would have to walk and chew gum. That is a demanding assignment, but it is also the job.

特朗普的抵制会使这项工作变得复杂,但这绝不能成为从不尝试的借口。民主党人已要求任命特别检察官,调查司法部处理爱泼斯坦档案的情况。众议院民主党人无法任命特别检察官;必须由司法部采取行动。但公开记录可能很重要,证据和两党压力可能改变该部门的考量。也许司法部长会拒绝。也许持续的压力会带来进展。如果民主党人事先认定这项努力毫无意义,那么这两种可能性都无法得到检验。

Trump’s resistance would complicate that work, but it cannot become an excuse for never trying. Democrats have called for a special counsel to investigate the Justice Department’s handling of the Epstein files. House Democrats cannot appoint one; the Justice Department would have to act. But a public record could matter, and evidence and bipartisan pressure could change the department’s calculation. Perhaps the attorney general refuses. Perhaps sustained pressure produces movement. Neither possibility is tested if Democrats decide beforehand that the effort is pointless.

立法方面也是如此。这项两党住房法案今年夏天在没有特朗普签字的情况下成为法律。立法者谈判达成协议,说服足够多的同事支持,并将法案送到他办公桌上。特朗普可能反对一项提案,但后来又决定要为其成功争取功劳。他的政治考量创造了值得尝试的可能性。

The same goes for legislation. The bipartisan housing package became law this summer without Trump’s signature. Legislators negotiated an agreement, persuaded enough colleagues to support it and put the bill on his desk. Trump could oppose a proposal and later decide he wants credit for its success. His political calculations create possibilities worth testing.

“尝试后被抓住”在这里很有用,前提是这意味着进行立法工作、建立支持,并让政府更难说不。单独举行一次新闻发布会不会改善任何人的生活。详细解释为什么什么都不可能奏效,也不会。

“Get caught trying” is useful here, provided it means doing the legislative work, building support and making it harder for the administration to say no. A news conference alone will not improve anyone’s life. Neither will a detailed explanation of why nothing could ever have worked.

民主党胜利将带来另一个挑战:保护选民刚刚赋予他们的权力。在密西西比州,共和党人正在讨论一张新的国会选区划分图,这可能将该州唯一的黑人国会议员本尼·汤普森挤出局。在北卡罗来纳州,他们重新划定了唐·戴维斯的选区以帮助击败他;如果他获胜,他们可能会再次尝试。密西西比州共和党人还寻求重新划定州立法选区图,因为民主党翻转了三个参议院席位,打破了他们的超级多数。

A Democratic victory would bring another challenge: protecting the power voters had just given them. In Mississippi, Republicans are discussing a new congressional map that could push out Bennie Thompson, the state’s only Black member of Congress. In North Carolina, they redrew Don Davis’ district to help defeat him; if he wins, they could try again. Mississippi Republicans are also seeking to redraw state legislative maps after Democrats flipped three Senate seats and broke their supermajority.

选民本应选择他们的代表。共和党正在重划选区版图,让代表来挑选他们的选民。国会黑人核心小组(CBC)可以将保护这一权利作为整个民主党核心小组的优先事项,利用其手中的选票、资历和委员会领导职位,对抗削弱黑人政治代表权的企图。

Voters are supposed to choose their representatives. Republicans are changing the maps so representatives can choose their voters. The CBC can make protecting that right a priority for the entire Democratic caucus, using its votes, seniority and committee leadership to confront efforts to weaken Black political representation.

这同样属于行使多数党权力的一部分:捍卫选民做出的选择。特朗普会试图阻挠一个由民主党控制的众议院。将此视为民主党无法有所作为的证明,无异于送给他一场他不配拥有的胜利。

That, too, is part of using a majority: defending the choices voters made. Trump would try to obstruct a Democratic House. Treating that as proof that Democrats cannot accomplish anything would give him a victory he has not earned.

民主党在这场竞选中一直呼吁选民赋予他们众议院多数党地位。如果选民履行了他们的责任,他们理应得到的不仅仅是关于总统为何让一切变得困难的解释。他们早已知晓这一点。这正是他们会选出民主党多数派的原因之一。

Democrats have spent this campaign asking voters to give them the House. If voters do their part, they are entitled to more than an explanation of why the president makes everything difficult. They already know that. It is one of the reasons they would elect a Democratic majority.

想要获得迈克尔·斯蒂尔、西蒙·桑德斯·汤森德和卢克·拉塞特更多发人深省的见解,请收看“周夜谈”,每周一至周五美国东部时间晚上7点在MS NOW播出,并关注西蒙与尤金·丹尼尔斯合作的播客节目“Clock It”。

For more thought-provoking insights from Michael Steele, Symone Sanders Townsend and Luke Russert, watch “The Weeknight” every Monday-Friday at 7 p.m. ET on MS NOW, and check out Symone’s podcast with Eugene Daniels, “Clock It.”

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