科技权重股强劲反弹，推动标普500指数和纳斯达克指数周二上涨，投资者消化了一些出人意料的强劲美国经济数据，围绕可能的美伊和平谈判进行了又一天的猜测，并等待美国中期选举结果。
A solid rebound in heavyweight tech stocks lifted the S&P 500 and Nasdaq on Tuesday, as investors digested some surprisingly strong US economic data, another day of speculation about possible US-Iran peace talks, and awaited the US midterm election results.
在今天的专栏中，我探讨了华尔街最近的动荡如何推动了对传统“避险”资产（如国债和瑞士法郎）的需求。但黄金除外。目前，黄金与股票等风险资产的相关性越来越高。它是否失去了传说中的“避险”地位，抑或这一地位始终被夸大了？今日关键阅读今日话题：比例失衡 中国人民银行周二采取措施，放缓人民币对美元升值，宣布大幅上调外汇存款准备金率。
In my column today, I look at how the recent wobble on Wall Street has spurred demand for traditional "safe haven" assets such as Treasuries and the Swiss franc. But not gold. Right now, gold is increasingly correlated with risky assets like stocks. Has it lost its fabled "safe haven" status, or was that always overstated? Today's Key Reads Today's Talking Points: Ratio'd The People's Bank of China on Tuesday took steps to slow the appreciation of the Chinese currency against the US dollar, announcing a hefty hike in the foreign exchange reserve requirement ratio.
这终结了人民币在即期市场连续13天上涨的势头——这是自1995年以来的最长涨势——并引发了五个月来最大单日跌幅。自美国总统唐纳德·特朗普去年4月宣布“解放日”关税以来，中国货币对美元已上涨超过10%。
This snapped a 13-day streak of yuan gains in the spot market — the longest run since 1995 — and triggered its steepest one-day fall for five months. China's currency had risen more than 10% against the greenback since US President Donald Trump unveiled his "Liberation Day" tariffs in April last year.
人民币上涨并未阻碍中国的竞争力。贸易顺差有望连续第二年超过1万亿美元，出口远远是饱受国内需求长期疲软困扰的经济体中最大的单一增长引擎。从“实际有效汇率基础”来看，情况略有不同——人民币仍比2022年3月弱约15%。
The yuan's rise has been no impediment to China's competitiveness. The trade surplus is on track to top $1 trillion for a second year, and exports are by far the biggest single engine of growth for an economy suffering from chronically weak domestic demand. Looked at through a "real effective exchange rate basis" lens, the picture is slightly different — the yuan is still around 15% weaker than it was in March 2022.
劳动力市场 美国劳动力市场的谜团愈发复杂。周二的数据显示，9月职位空缺大幅增加，裁员减少，表明劳动力市场依然稳固，尽管当月非农就业增长几乎停滞。周二的“JOLTS”数据也与日益流行的说法相悖，即日益增加的人工智能相关失业表明就业市场正在走弱。
Labor gains The US labor market conundrum thickens. Figures on Tuesday showed that job openings rose sharply in September while layoffs fell, pointing to a firm labor market even though non-farm payroll gains in the month barely grew. The "JOLTS" data on Tuesday also ran counter to the narrative gaining traction that mounting AI-related job losses show the job market is weakening.
投资者希望周三公布的10月私营部门ADP就业数据以及周五的非农就业数据能带来更多清晰度。周二的其他经济数据参差不齐——9月工厂订单增幅超出预期，表明经济运行相当不错，但最新的“SLOOS”数据显示，企业对信贷的需求出现了超过一年以来的首次收缩。
Investors will be hoping October's private sector ADP employment figures on Wednesday and Friday's non-farm payroll data offer more clarity. Other economic data on Tuesday were mixed — factory orders in September rose faster than expected, suggesting the economy is purring along rather nicely, but the latest "SLOOS" data show business demand for credit is contracting for the first time in over a year.
Copom陷入两难 巴西央行将于周三宣布最新利率决议，距离卢拉总统惊人连胜仅10天。同样引人注目的是，巴西市场在卢拉震惊获胜后的历史性暴跌之后，至今仍未反弹。央行的利率决策委员会“Copom”原本预计将实施第六次连续降息，但现在预计将把基准利率Selic维持在13.75%不变。
Copom in a bind Brazil's central bank announces its latest interest rate decision on Wednesday, just 10 days after President Lula's remarkable reelection victory. Just as remarkable has been the failure of Brazilian markets to rebound from the historic plunge the day after Lula's shock win. The bank's rate-setting committee "Copom" had been expected to deliver a sixth consecutive rate cut, but is now expected to keep its Selic rate on hold at 13.75%.
市场抛售持续不断。Bovespa股票指数自卢拉获胜以来已下跌20%，没有任何一个上涨交易日，巴西雷亚尔贬值近10%，周二10年期政府债券收益率升至15.75%，为2015-16年衰退以来的最高水平。对于巴西利亚的决策者来说，这是极具挑战性的时期。明天什么可能影响市场？
The market selloff has been relentless. The Bovespa stock index has lost 20% and not had a single up day since Lula's win, the real has lost nearly 10%, and on Tuesday the 10-year government bond yield rose to 15.75%, the highest since the 2015-16 recession. Extremely challenging times for policymakers in Brasilia. What could move markets tomorrow?