佛罗里达州奥兰多，10月27日——投资者继续乘着上周阴霾中浮现的人工智能乐观情绪浪潮，周二科技股领涨再度推高美国股市。油价下跌和债市企稳也起到了助推作用，眼下注意力转向美联储周三的政策决定。
ORLANDO, Florida, Oct 27 - Investors continue to ride the wave of AI optimism that has emerged from last week's gloom, with another tech-led rally lifting US stocks on Tuesday. Lower oil prices and a steady bond market helped too, as attention now switches to the Federal Reserve's policy decision on Wednesday.
在今天的专栏中，我将巴西总统卢拉引人注目的连任胜利置于美中争夺全球霸权的背景下审视——这场竞争涵盖从人工智能军备竞赛到资源和能源安全的各个领域。巴西在其中的许多关键领域都处于夹缝之中。今日要闻
In my column today, I look at Brazilian President Lula's remarkable re-election victory in the context of the US-China battle for global supremacy in everything from the AI arms race to resource and energy security. Brazil straddles many of these key areas. Today's Key Reads
- 今日关键市场走势 股市：韩国+3%，日本+1.7%，中国-1.3%。欧洲+0.5%，英国-0.8%。巴西-0.5%。纳斯达克+1.2%，标普500+0.6%，道琼斯。标普500指数有六个板块上涨，五个板块下跌。科技+1.5%，能源-2%。“SOX”芯片指数+3.6%。戴尔、超微电脑均+7.5%。波音-11%，罗宾汉盘后-6%。汇市：美元连续第三日上涨。巴西雷亚尔反弹约1%。比特币回升至8万美元上方。债市：美国5年期国债拍卖表现尚可——认购倍数为2.33，与过去12次拍卖的平均水平一致，外国需求疲软被强劲的国内需求抵消。巴西10年期国债收益率-50。油价下跌约1.7%，WTI跌破100美元。今日话题：超大规模云服务商财报季来临 美国三家超大规模云服务商将于本周发布第三季度财报——微软和谷歌（Alphabet）在周三美股收盘后发布，亚马逊在周四收盘后发布。市场密切关注它们对云业务增长的前景展望，以及巨额资本支出将以多快速度转化为利润。过去48小时的市场价格走势表明，投资者情绪相当乐观。
• AI investment boom drives US core capital goods orders, shipments higher in September • AI tremor exposes market's volatility fault lines: Mike Dolan • Bond investors are thinking less about the Fed and more about AI, deficits • UK budget risks leaving investors in the dark: Mike Peacock • EXCLUSIVE-US, Canada working on deal to ease steel, auto tariffs, sources say • Today's Key Market Moves STOCKS: South Korea +3%, Japan +1.7%, China -1.3%. Europe +0.5%, UK -0.8%. Brazil -0.5%. Nasdaq +1.2%, S&P 500 +0.6%, DowSix sectors on the S&P 500 rise, five fall. Tech +1.5%, energy -2%. 'SOX' chip index +3.6%. Dell, Super Micro Computer both +7.5%. Boeing -11%, Robinhood -6% after the bell.FX: US dollar up for third day. Brazilian real rebounds ~1%. Bitcoin climbs back above $80,000.BONDS: US 5-year auction is decent - bid/cover 2.33 in line with average of last 12 auctions, soft foreign demand offset by strong domestic demand. Brazil 10y yield -50Oil down ~1.7%, WTI below $100. Today's Talking Points: Hyperscalers report Three of the US hyperscalers report third-quarter earnings this week - Microsoft and Google (Alphabet) after the market close on Wednesday, and Amazon after the bell on Thursday. All eyes are on their outlook for cloud growth, and how quickly the enormous capex spend will turn into profit. The market price action over the last 48 hours suggests investors are in a reasonably bullish mood.
这三家公司——合计积压订单接近1.7万亿美元——计划今年支出高达6000亿美元。但投资者对这类支出的容忍度似乎正在下降，因为这些支出增加了自由现金流萎缩的风险，甚至超出此前已经消化的程度。看看Meta上周的业绩——营收增长令人鼓舞，前景展望也偏乐观，但增加支出计划仍推动股价走低。
These three companies — with nearly $1.7 trillion in combined backlog — plan to spend as much as $600 billion this year. But investors' tolerance for spending that raises the risk of shrinking free cash flow, even more than already priced, does seem to be waning. Look at Meta's results last week — encouraging revenue growth and an upbeat outlook, yet increased spending plans pushed the share price lower.
利率期货交易员认为，美联储周三结束为期两天的会议后维持利率不变的概率为90%。美国银行的经济学家是唯一预测加息的一方，但正如他们在美银利率策略团队的同事所指出的，这将是史无前例的——自2009年以来，美联储从未在临近会议时市场定价的加息概率如此之低的情况下加息。
Interest rate futures traders are putting a 90% probability on the Fed concluding its two-day meeting on Wednesday by leaving rates on hold. Bank of America economists stand alone with their call for a hike, but as their colleagues in the BofA rates strategy team point out, it would be unprecedented — since 2009, the Fed has never raised rates with market pricing for a hike this low so close to the meeting.
一个更有意思的争论是，美联储到底该不该大幅加息。美国实际利率目前处于发达国家中的最高水平之列，而未来一年预计还将进一步收紧75个基点。今年的GDP增长普遍预计将稳定在略高于2%的水平，随后放缓，而且有迹象表明AI正开始引发大规模裁员。收益率曲线趋平表明，这一点值得密切关注。
A more interesting debate is whether the Fed should be hiking much at all. Real US interest rates are currently among the highest in the developed world, and a further 75 basis points of tightening is expected over the next year. GDP growth this year is generally expected to settle just above 2% before softening, and there are signs that AI is beginning to trigger sizeable job losses. The flattening yield curve suggests this is one to keep an eye on.
巴西，第二天。那些指望巴西金融市场在周一的暴跌之后出现像样反弹的人，恐怕要大失所望了。尽管巴西股市基准指数Bovespa创下历史上最大的单日跌幅之一，暴跌14%，但周二依然以下跌收盘。雷亚尔在遭遇自1994年发行以来最大跌幅之一后，仅反弹了1%。花旗关闭了巴西风险交易，摩根士丹利将巴西评级下调至持股观望。
Brazil, Day 2 Anyone hoping for a decent rebound in Brazilian financial markets after Monday's carnage will be sorely disappointed. Even after plunging 14% in one of its biggest one-day falls on record, the Bovespa stock index still closed in the red on Tuesday. The real, bruised by one of its biggest declines since it was launched in 1994, managed to rebound only 1%. Citi closed its Brazilian risk trades, and Morgan Stanley downgraded Brazil to equal-weight.
然而，尽管周一的市场变动是历史性的——汇率暴跌10%，股市崩盘14%——但值得注意的是，它几乎没有波及全球市场。没错，拉美股市周一也大跌，但MSCI全球新兴市场指数周一仅下跌1%，并在周二收复了大部分失地。与此同时，MSCI新兴亚洲指数周二上涨1%。发达市场几乎看不到任何明显影响。巴西是全球前十大经济体之一，但相对封闭。这或许就是世界其他地区基本未受波及的原因。什么可能推动明天的市场？
Yet as historic as the market moves were on Monday — a 10% currency collapse and 14% stock market crash — it's remarkable how little spillover there was into global markets. Yes, LatAm stocks also tumbled on Monday, but MSCI's global emerging markets index on Monday lost only 1% and recouped most of that on Tuesday. Meanwhile, MSCI's emerging Asia index rose 1% on Tuesday. There was virtually no discernible impact on developed markets at all. Brazil is among the world's top 10 economies, but relatively closed. That may be why the rest of the world was largely spared. What could move markets tomorrow?