民主党策略师詹姆斯·卡维尔预测，周二的中期选举将由“天文数字”般的黑人投票率推动，与此同时，选举预测人士预期将出现“蓝色浪潮”。
Democratic strategist James Carville predicted an “astronomical” Black turnout would drive Tuesday’s midterm elections amid election forecasters anticipating a “blue wave.”
“当我观察其他地方的候选人时，我认为周二晚间和周三早晨的故事将是黑人投票率，”他在周一接受 MS NOW 采访时表示。“我认为黑人投票率不会很高。我认为相对于其他可用的选举数据，它是天文数字般的。”“这将带动的不仅仅是路易斯安那州、密西西比州等地。这在得克萨斯州、密歇根州等地也将发挥作用，”这位民主党策略师总结道。
“When I look around at candidates in other places, I think the story” Tuesday night and Wednesday morning “is going to be Black turnout,” he said during a Monday appearance on MS NOW. “I think Black turnout is not going to be high. I think relative to the rest of the election available, it’s astronomical.”“That is going to carry a lot more than people in Louisiana, Mississippi particularly. It’s going to matter in places like Texas, going to places in Michigan,” the Democratic strategist concluded.
此前，选举预测机构“萨巴托水晶球”在 10 月将路易斯安那州——一个红色堡垒——的参议院竞选评级调整为有利于民主党人。
This comes after Louisiana’s — a red stronghold — Senate race shifted in Democrat’s favor in October by election forecaster Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
“水晶球”分析师凯尔·康迪克写道，共和党人朱莉娅·莱特洛“可能面临一场比预期更胶着的竞争”，对手是民主党人杰米·戴维斯。他引用了路易斯安那州保守派民调专家约翰·库维隆的早期投票数据，显示“黑人选民投票率极佳”。在密西西比州，律师斯科特·科洛姆正寻求击败参议员辛迪·海德-史密斯（共和党-密西西比州）。在选举日前几周，他的竞选活动获得了势头，分析人士预测黑人选民将帮助决定该州的参议院选举。“木兰州”拥有全国最高比例的黑人选民，达 36%。
Crystal Ball analyst Kyle Kondik wrote Republican Julia Letlow “could be in a tighter-than-expected race” with her opponent, Democrat Jamie Davis, citing early voting data by Louisiana-based conservative pollster John Couvillon showing “excellent Black voter turnout.”In Mississippi, attorney Scott Colom is seeking to unseat Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.). His campaign gained traction in the weeks leading up to Election Day as analysts predict Black voters will help decide the state’s Senate election. The Magnolia State has the highest share of Black voters in the country at 36 percent.
“非裔美国选民倾向于以 90% 以上的比例投票给民主党候选人，”密西西比州共和党策略师奥斯汀·巴伯说。“如果你在密西西比州落后，你一开始就面临一个庞大的投票群体，所以这是一场投票率的博弈，就像每次选举一样。”海德-史密斯和莱特洛在《国会山报》合作伙伴 Decision Desk HQ（DDHQ）的预测中是获胜热门，尽管在可靠的红州，共和党人面临着选民对不断上涨的成本和针对其他国家（特别是加拿大）的关税日益增长的不满。
“African American voters tend to vote 90-plus percent for Democratic candidates,” Austin Barbour, a Mississippi-based Republican strategist, said. “If you’re down voting in Mississippi, you start out with a significant voting bloc, so it’s a turnout game as every election is.”Hyde-Smith and Letlow are the favorites to win in projections by The Hill’s partner Decision Desk HQ’s (DDHQ), though Republicans in reliably red states have faced rising voter frustration with rising costs and tariffs against other countries, particularly Canada.
“当你去告诉所有人你要让我们摆脱战争、清理沼泽、降低汽油价格、做所有这些事，而这些事没有一件正在发生时，人们就会感到沮丧，”总部设在密西西比州的共和党策略师海耶斯·登特表示。
“When you go and tell everybody you’re going to get us out of wars, you’re going to drain the swamp, you’re going to cut gas prices, you’re going to do all of this, and none of that is occurring, people get frustrated,” Mississippi-based Republican strategist Hayes Dent expressed.
民主党正寻求在得克萨斯州、阿拉斯加州、密歇根州和明尼苏达州的参议院选举中获胜，以期重新夺回对参议院的控制权。
Democrats are looking to win in Senate races in Texas, Alaska, Michigan and Minnesota in the party’s effort to regain control of the upper chamber.