选举预测机构萨巴托水晶球在11月3日中期选举前最后几天，将明尼苏达州和路易斯安那州的参议院竞选评级向民主党倾斜。
Election forecaster Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved the Senate races in Minnesota and Louisiana toward Democrats in the final days leading up to the Nov. 3 midterms.
该评级机构周五报告称，路易斯安那州的竞选此前评为“稳操胜券（共和党）”，现已调整为“倾向共和党”；明尼苏达州则从“倾向民主党”升为“倾向民主党（优势更大）”。
Louisiana’s race, which it previously rated as “safe Republican,” has now moved to “likely Republican,” while Minnesota went from “leans Democratic” to “likely Democratic,” the handicapper reported Friday.
在路易斯安那州，获得特朗普背书的联邦众议员朱莉娅·莱特洛（共和党）将面对民主党候选人杰米·戴维斯。《国会山报》的非党派选举预测合作伙伴“决策台总部”（DDHQ）认为该竞选严重倾向莱特洛，给予她88%的压倒性胜算。
In Louisiana, Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow (R) is facing off against Democratic candidate Jamie Davis. The Hill’s nonpartisan election forecasting partner, Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), leans the race heavily toward Letlow — who it gives an overwhelming 88 percent chance of winning.
尽管路易斯安那州一贯右倾，但水晶球分析师凯尔·康迪克写道，莱特洛“可能面临一场比预期更胶着的竞选”，他引用了路易斯安那州保守派民调专家约翰·库维隆的早期投票数据，显示“黑人选民投票率极佳”。在明尼苏达州的参议院竞选中，近期民调显示民主党人佩吉·弗拉纳根以两位数优势领先共和党对手米歇尔·塔福亚。DDHQ严重倾向弗拉纳根，给予这位明尼苏达州副州长85%的胜算。
Thought Louisiana is reliably right-leaning, Crystal Ball analyst Kyle Kondik wrote Letlow “could be in a tighter-than-expected race” with her opponent, citing early voting data by Louisiana-based conservative pollster John Couvillon showing “excellent Black voter turnout.”In Minnesota’s Senate race, recent polls placed Democrat Peggy Flanagan double digits ahead of her GOP opponent, Michele Tafoya. DDHQ leans heavily in favor of Flanagan, giving the Minnesota lieutenant governor an 85 percent chance of winning.
康迪克指出，虽然弗拉纳根的表现“低于人们在蓝色浪潮环境下、在一个淡蓝州原本预期民主党能获得的优势”，但她赢得明尼苏达州参议员席位的机会很大。
Kondick noted that, while Flanagan is underperforming “the margin one might otherwise expect a Democrat to get in a light blue state in a blue wave environment,” her chance of claiming Minnesota’s Senate seat is high.
“但她真的会输给前体育播音员米歇尔·塔福亚（共和党）吗？这种可能性似乎比‘倾向民主党’这一评级所传达的还要小，”康迪克说。
“But is she really going to actually lose to former sportscaster Michele Tafoya (R)? The chances of that seem smaller than what a Leans Democratic rating conveys,” Kondick said.
水晶球最新的评级调整使其参议院席位预测变为：民主党49席、共和党46席、5个摇摆席位。该评级机构将于周一发布最终预测。
Crystal Ball’s latest rating changes place their Senate composition projections at 49 Democrats, 46 Republicans and 5 toss ups. The handicapper will release its final forecast Monday.