新民调显示共和党众议员朱莉·莱特洛（左）与民主党人杰米·戴维斯（右）在参议院竞选中打成平手 如需了解路易斯安那州参议院竞选的最新动态，请订阅《佩尔迪多街》的免费电子邮件通讯或升级为付费会员。
New poll shows GOP Rep. Julie Letlow (left) and Democrat Jamie Davis (right) tied in Senate contest For the latest on Louisiana’s senate race, to Perdido Street’s free email newsletter or upgrade to a paid membership.
根据民主党人杰米·戴维斯竞选团队周五发布的一项民调，路易斯安那州空缺联邦参议员席位的争夺战势均力敌。
The race for the open U.S. Senate seat in Louisiana is a tossup, according to a poll released Friday by Democrat Jamie Davis’ campaign.
哈特研究公司的这项民调显示，戴维斯与共和党联邦众议员朱莉娅·莱特洛支持率持平，这提振了民主党人在该州实现爆冷获胜的希望——唐纳德·特朗普总统在2024年大选中曾以22个百分点的优势拿下该州。
The poll from Hart Research Associates shows Davis tied with GOP Congresswoman Julia Letlow, buoying Democrats’ hopes of an upset win in a state that President Donald Trump carried by 22 points in 2024.
该民调于10月28日和29日通过固定电话、手机和短信转网络方式，对全州502名可能投票者进行了调查。
The poll surveyed 502 likely voters statewide on Oct. 28 and Oct. 29 by landline, cell phone and text-to-web.
据戴维斯竞选团队称，民调显示戴维斯和莱特洛均获45%支持率，戴维斯在已登记独立选民中领先23个百分点。
It shows Davis and Letlow tied at 45%, with Davis leading by 23 points among registered independent voters, according to the Davis campaign.
这项民调必将提升全国对路易斯安那州参议院竞选的关注度。在早期投票中黑人选民和民主党选民大量涌现之前，这场竞选原被视为共和党的稳操胜券。唐纳德·特朗普总统计划于周一与众议院议长迈克·约翰逊一起为莱特洛举行电话集会。
The poll is sure to buoy national interest in Louisiana’s Senate contest, which seemed a sure bet for the GOP until early voting saw massive turnout among Black voters and Democrats. President Donald Trump plans to hold a tele-rally for Letlow on Monday alongside House Speaker Mike Johnson.
周三，一个支持莱特洛的超级政治行动委员会发布了本次竞选的首支攻击广告，广告中使用了戴维斯的AI生成图像，戴维斯是一名农民兼前坦萨斯教区警察陪审团成员。政治观察人士对《佩尔迪多街》表示，这种后期发动攻击表明莱特洛阵营感到担忧。
On Wednesday, a super PAC supporting Letlow released the first ad of the race attacking Davis, featuring an AI-generated image of the farmer and former Tensas Parish police juror. The late attack suggests that the Letlow camp is worried, political observers told Perdido Street.
“原本的轻松胜利变成了刀光剑影的厮杀，”一位近期与莱特洛交谈过的路易斯安那州共和党人告诉《政治报》。“如果民主党选民在选举日投票率激增，门罗将度过一个漫长的夜晚。”这项新民调发布于此前哈特研究公司9月的民调和公共政策民调7月的民调之后，那两次民调均显示戴维斯落后莱特洛4个百分点。
“The cakewalk turned into a knife fight,” a Louisiana Republican who has talked with Letlow recently told POLITICO. “If Democrat turnout surges on Election Day, it’ll be a long night in Monroe.”The new poll comes after surveys from Hart Research Associates in September and Public Policy Polling in July showed Davis trailing Letlow by four points.
“我在12月宣布竞选这个席位，承诺与所有人对话，因为每个人都应得到代表和倾听。我们播下的种子开始显现出丰收的迹象，”戴维斯竞选团队周五在声明中表示。
"I declared for this seat in December and committed to talking to everyone because everyone should be represented and heard. Those seeds we planted are starting to show signs of a harvest," Davis’ campaign said in a statement Friday.
“我见到并握手的那些人，无论党派、种族或出身，都看到我是在为他们工作，而不是为某个党派。但我的关注点不在民调上。我百分之百专注于民众及其关切的问题，而他们关注的是高物价、医疗保健和腐败。我还有几天时间表明，我是这场竞选中唯一把路易斯安那州利益放在首位的候选人。”
"The people I got to meet and shake hands with, no matter the party, race, or where they're from, are seeing that I’m working for them, not a party. But my focus isn't polls. I'm 100% focused on the people and their issues and they’re focused on high prices, healthcare, and corruption.
《国会内幕》（Inside Elections）周四将路易斯安那州的参议院竞选评级从“稳固共和党”调整为“倾向共和党”。《库克政治报告》（The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter）仍将该竞选列为“稳固共和党”。
I’ve got a few more days to show I’m the only Louisiana-first candidate in this race.”Inside Elections on Thursday shifted Louisiana’s Senate contest from solid Republican to likely Republican. The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter still lists the race as solid Republican.
莱特洛竞选团队周五在一份声明中说：“朱莉娅·莱特洛将会获胜，因为她有为路易斯安那州带来实实在在成果的可靠记录。路易斯安那人知道，她为我们的社区争取到了数亿美元资金，在教育领域为家长权利而战，并致力于降低劳动家庭的成本，这一记录与她的对手形成鲜明对比，后者将不过是查克·舒默和激进左派的橡皮图章。”选举日是周二，11月3日。点击此处查找您的投票地点。
The Letlow campaign in a statement Friday said, “Julia Letlow is going to win because she has a proven record of delivering real results for Louisiana. Louisianans know she has secured hundreds of millions for our communities, fought for parents’ rights in education, and worked to lower costs for working families, a record that stands in stark contrast to her opponent who would be nothing more than a rubber stamp for Chuck Schumer and the radical left.”Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3. Click here to find your polling location.