
距离美国中期选举还有五天,民主党在全国民调中领先,但多个参议院席位的竞争依然胶着。
With five days to go before the United States midterms, Democrats are ahead in national polls, but several Senate races remain close.
总统唐纳德·特朗普、前总统巴拉克·奥巴马和副总统JD·万斯周三分别在俄亥俄州、佐治亚州和北卡罗来纳州助选,两党都在为争夺国会控制权而战。以下是您需要了解的情况:根据RealClearPolling的全国民调平均值,民主党以51.4%对43.2%领先共和党,领先优势为8.2个百分点。但这一全国性领先优势并未体现在每一场参议院竞选中。
President Donald Trump, former President Barack Obama and Vice President JD Vance were out campaigning on Wednesday in Ohio, Georgia and North Carolina, as both parties fight for control of Congress. Here’s what to know: Democrats lead Republicans by 51.4 percent to 43.2 percent, a gap of 8.2 percentage points, according to RealClearPolling’s national polling average. But the national lead is not reflected in every Senate race.
根据该民调汇总机构的数据,在德克萨斯州——民主党自1988年以来未曾赢得过参议院选举——民主党人詹姆斯·塔拉里科以48.5%对46.7%领先共和党人肯·帕克斯顿。
In Texas, where Democrats haven’t won a Senate election since 1988, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton with 48.5 percent to 46.7 percent, according to the poll aggregator.
根据为CBS底特律台进行的Mitchell Research民调,在密歇根州,民主党人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德对共和党人迈克·罗杰斯的领先优势已扩大至七个百分点。
In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed has widened his lead over Republican Mike Rogers to seven percentage points, according to a Mitchell Research poll conducted for CBS Detroit.
10月26日至27日的调查显示,埃尔-赛义德以51%对44%领先罗杰斯,高于本月初4.2个百分点的优势。
The October 26-27 survey found El-Sayed leading Rogers 51 percent to 44 percent, up from a 4.2-point advantage earlier this month.
RealClearPolling显示的竞争更为激烈,埃尔-赛义德为48%,罗杰斯为46%。
RealClearPolling showed a narrower race, with El-Sayed at 48 percent and Rogers at 46 percent.
最新消息:密歇根州参议院民调(Mitchell Research) 阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德 51% 迈克·罗杰斯 44%链接:2026年10月28日 尽管拥有领先优势,民主党仍在继续争取密歇根州年轻选民的支持。
NEW: Michigan Senate Poll (Mitchell Research) Abdul El-Sayed 51% Mike Rogers 44% Link: October 28, 2026 Despite that lead, Democrats are continuing to campaign for support among young voters in Michigan.
“我们需要所有人,年轻人是联盟的重要组成部分,在11月3日可能真正成为决定胜负的关键,”希望从共和党手中夺取密歇根州第七国会选区的民主党候选人威尔·劳伦斯对半岛电视台表示。
“We need everybody and young people are a huge part of the coalition and could really be the difference-maker on November 3rd,” Will Lawrence, a Democratic candidate hoping to win Michigan’s 7th Congressional District from the Republicans, told Al Jazeera.
曾从佛罗里达州赶来为埃尔-赛义德助选的民主党众议员麦克斯韦·弗罗斯特表示,与选民面对面交流尤为重要。
Democratic Congressman Maxwell Frost, who travelled from Florida to campaign for El-Sayed, said face-to-face conversations with voters were particularly important.
“每个人都看过那些消极的、偏执的广告和仇视伊斯兰教的广告,但还没发生的是,每个人都还没进行过人与面对面的交流,去谈谈为什么阿卜杜勒是密歇根州合适的参议员,”他说。
“Everyone’s seen the negative bigoted ads and Islamophobic ads, but what hasn’t happened is everyone hasn’t had person-to-person conversation about why Abdul is the right senator for Michigan,” he said.
共和党人也试图接触年轻选民,一名支持者对半岛电视台表示:“我认为在Z世代中确实存在一种人们没有意识到的转向更保守的运动。”在密歇根州之外,一些选民告诉半岛电视台,他们对两党都感到沮丧。
Republicans are also trying to reach young voters, with one supporter telling Al Jazeera: “I think there’s definitely a movement that people don’t realise in Gen Z that is turning more conservative.”Beyond Michigan, some voters told Al Jazeera they were frustrated with both parties.
肯塔基州列克星敦的一名选民说:“每个政党都想掌权,我认为他们会说出他们认为选民想听的话。”
“Each party wants to be in power and I think they’ll say what they think they want their voters to hear,” one voter said in Lexington, Kentucky.
民主党战略家乔尔·鲁宾将中期选举描述为一场潜在的“抗议选举”,许多民主党选民希望限制特朗普的权力。
Democratic strategist Joel Rubin described the midterms as a potential “protest election”, with many Democratic voters looking to limit Trump’s power.
他说:“我认为,绝大多数投票给民主党的美国选民投票是因为他们想要对特朗普总统的权力进行制衡。”
“I think that overwhelmingly American voters who will vote Democratic are voting because they want to put a check on President Trump’s power,” he said.
共和党战略家苏海尔·汗表示,特朗普正在失去许多自身选民的支持,这些选民对不断上涨的燃料价格、房租和房贷成本感到沮丧。
Republican strategist Suhail Khan said Trump was losing support among a number of his own voters, who were frustrated by rising fuel prices, rents and mortgage costs.
宾夕法尼亚州葛底斯堡的另一名选民说:“我一直在投票,而且我是无党派人士,两边我都投……我太沮丧了,而且失去了希望。”
“I keep voting and I’m independent, I vote both sides … I’m so frustrated and out of hope,” another voter said in Gettysburg, Pennsylvania.
民主党人希望推翻共和党在国会两院的多数地位,但参议院构成了更大的挑战。
Democrats are hoping to overturn Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress, but the Senate presents a bigger challenge.
他们需要在众议院净增3个席位,在参议院净增4个席位。目前在100个席位中,共和党人占据53席。民主党人拥有47席,其中包括2名与他们结盟的无党派人士。
They need a net gain of three seats in the House of Representatives and four in the Senate, where Republicans currently hold 53 of the 100 seats. Democrats hold 47, including two independents who caucus with them.
民主党人需要达到51席才能夺取控制权,但通往参议院多数席位的道路并不简单。
Democrats need to reach 51 seats to take control, but the path to a Senate majority is not simple.
半岛电视台的斯科特·麦克莱恩(Scott McLean)表示:“即使是最乐观的共和党人也会告诉你,共和党想要保住众议院将相当艰难。”“不过,美国参议院的情况则截然不同。”麦克莱恩表示,即便民主党赢得北卡罗来纳州和俄亥俄州并保住现有的议席,他们仍会比获得多数席位所需的51席少两个席位。
“Even the most optimistic of Republicans will tell you that it’s going to be pretty tough for the GOP to hold on to the House of Representatives,” Al Jazeera’s Scott McLean said. “Different story when it comes to the US Senate, though.”McLean said that even if Democrats win North Carolina and Ohio and hold on to their current seats, they would still be two seats short of the 51 needed for a majority.
阿拉斯加州和得克萨斯州有助于缩小这一差距。但共和党人也希望赢得密歇根州,该州的选情依然胶着。
Alaska and Texas could help close that gap. But Republicans are also hoping to win Michigan, where the race remains tight.
仅夺取众议院的控制权仍将对特朗普产生重大影响。如果民主党人夺得众议院控制权,他们就可以阻止他的部分立法议程,并对他的政府展开调查。
Taking control of the House of Representatives alone would still have significant consequences for Trump. If the Democrats flip the House, they can block parts of his legislative agenda and launch investigations into his administration.

他们还将能够传唤政府官员在国会委员会面前作证,尽管白宫可以对这些要求提出异议。
They would also be able to call administration officials to testify before congressional committees, although the White House could challenge those demands.
特朗普当时在俄亥俄州为共和党参议员乔恩·哈斯特(Jon Husted)竞选,哈斯特正面临前民主党参议员谢罗德·布朗(Sherrod Brown)的挑战。
Trump was in Ohio campaigning for Republican Senator Jon Husted, who is facing former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown.
在集会期间,特朗普为共和党州长候选人维韦克·拉马斯瓦米(Vivek Ramaswamy)进行了辩护,此前一段竞选广告引发了强烈反弹,广告中出现了其民主党对手埃米·阿克顿(Amy Acton)关系疏远的母亲。
During the rally, Trump defended Republican gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy following backlash over an featuring the estranged mother of his Democratic rival, Amy Acton.
特朗普表示,拉马斯瓦米受到了“非常不公正”的对待。“这他妈怎么会是他的问题?”在抗议者打断他的演讲后,特朗普还谈到了杰弗里·爱泼斯坦(Jeffrey Epstein),称自己在二十年前将这位已故的性犯罪者驱逐出了他的海湖庄园俱乐部。
Ramaswamy was being treated “very unfairly”, Trump said. “How the hell is that his problem?”Trump also spoke about Jeffrey Epstein after protesters interrupted his speech, saying he had expelled the late sex offender from his Mar-a-Lago club two decades ago.
与此同时,在佐治亚州,前总统奥巴马与民主党参议员乔恩·奥索夫(Jon Ossoff)和州长候选人凯莎·兰斯·博托姆斯(Keisha Lance Bottoms)一同出席了活动。
Meanwhile, in Georgia, former President Obama joined Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff and gubernatorial candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms.

奥巴马批评共和党人对他在最近关于白宫装修的芝士蛋糕工厂(Cheesecake Factory)笑话的反应,称他们对这件事的关心超过了对不断上涨的生活成本的关注。他说:“这些人不是严肃的人。他们对实际问题没有解决方案。”
Obama criticised Republicans for their reaction to his recent Cheesecake Factory joke about White House renovations, saying they were more concerned about that than the rising cost of living. “These are not serious people. They don’t have solutions to actual problems,” he said.
万斯还在北卡罗来纳州举行了造势活动,前州长罗伊·库珀在该州的参议院竞选中面临共和党人迈克尔·沃特利的挑战。
Vance also rallied in North Carolina, where former Governor Roy Cooper is facing Republican Michael Whatley in the Senate race.
特朗普计划于格林尼治标准时间周四16:30在南卡罗来纳州开展竞选活动,随后于周五前往佛罗里达州,周六前往堪萨斯州。
Trump is scheduled to campaign in South Carolina on Thursday at 16:30 GMT, before heading to Florida on Friday and Kansas on Saturday.
南卡罗来纳州是民主党人正在争夺的共和党把持的参议院席位之一,尽管该党在一个传统保守州面临着一场艰难的竞争。
South Carolina is among the Republican-held Senate seats Democrats are targeting, although the party faces a difficult contest in a traditionally conservative state.
在得克萨斯州,副总统万斯将于格林尼治标准时间17:15在韦瑟福德举行造势活动,共和党候选人肯·帕克斯顿正与民主党人詹姆斯·塔拉里科展开一场激烈的参议院席位竞争。
In Texas, Vice President JD Vance will hold a rally in Weatherford at 17:15 GMT, with Republican candidate Ken Paxton facing a close Senate race against Democrat James Talarico.
塔拉里科还将于周四在达拉斯开展竞选活动,时间为格林尼治标准时间周五00:00(当地时间周四晚上7点)。
Talarico will also be campaigning on Thursday in Dallas, at 00:00 GMT on Friday (7pm Thursday local time).
半岛电视台记者菲尔·拉韦尔从得克萨斯州报道称,共和党人格外关注农村地区的投票率,该地区的注册选民投票率为21%,而人口较多的大都市地区的投票率为24%。
Al Jazeera’s Phil Lavelle reported from Texas that Republicans are particularly concerned about turnout in rural areas, where 21 percent of registered voters had cast their ballots, compared with 24 percent in the more heavily populated metropolitan areas.
与此同时,前副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯预计将在佐治亚州开展竞选活动,民主党参议员乔恩·奥索夫正在该州迎战共和党人迈克·柯林斯,以捍卫其席位。
Meanwhile, former Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to campaign in Georgia, where Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff is defending his seat against Republican Mike Collins.
佐治亚州的现场提前投票将于周五结束,两党都在选举日到来前作最后冲刺。
Georgia’s early in-person voting ends on Friday as both parties make their final push before Election Day.