在预测民主党将迎来“蓝色浪潮”、选民纷纷前往投票站之际，有几场关键竞选过于胶着，以至于所有专家都难以放心预测。
Amid projections of a Democratic blue wave, as voters head to the polls, several pivotal races are too close for all the experts to comfortably predict.
《时代》周刊对10家权威选举预测机构的竞选评级进行分析发现，在11月3日改选的35个美国参议院席位中，有8个并未被一致评为倾向某一党派。这8场竞选分别在阿拉斯加、爱荷华、堪萨斯、缅因、密歇根、俄亥俄、南卡罗来纳和得克萨斯。假设其他结果按预期发展，民主党至少需要赢下其中4场，才能控制国会参议院。
A TIME analysis of race ratings by 10 reputable election forecasters found that of the 35 U.S. Senate seats up for election on Nov. 3, eight are not rated unanimously in favor of one party. Those eight races are in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, South Carolina, and Texas. And Democrats would have to win at least four of them, assuming other results go as expected, to take control of the upper chamber of Congress.
此次分析考察了库克政治报告（CPR）、Decision Desk HQ（DDHQ）、FiftyPlusOne（FPO）、福克斯新闻权力排名（FNPR）、Inside Elections（IE）、Race to the WH（RWH）、萨巴托水晶球（SCB）、Silver Bulletin的FLIPR豪华模型（SB）、Split Ticket（ST）以及（TE）的评级。
The analysis examined ratings from Cook Political Report (CPR), Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), FiftyPlusOne (FPO), Fox News Power Rankings (FNPR), Inside Elections (IE), Race to the WH (RWH), Sabato’s Crystal Ball (SCB), Silver Bulletin’s FLIPR Deluxe model (SB), Split Ticket (ST), and (TE).
在阿拉斯加，4家预测机构——DDHQ、FPO、SCB和ST——将民主党籍前众议员玛丽·佩尔托拉与共和党籍现任参议员丹·沙利文的竞选评为倾向民主党，其余6家则称其为势均力敌。（TE使用“不确定”一词，本分析将其视为等同于势均力敌评级。）在爱荷华，不同预测机构对共和党籍众议员阿什利·辛森与民主党人乔什·图雷克的竞选走向看法不一。RWH将其评为微倾民主党，SCB称其倾向共和党，TE则将其评为倾向共和党。其余7家预测机构称该竞选势均力敌。
In Alaska, four forecasters—DDHQ, FPO, SCB, and ST—rate the race between Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola and Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan as leaning Democratic, while the remaining six call it a toss-up. (TE uses the term “uncertain,” which this analysis treats as the equivalent of a toss-up rating.) In Iowa, different forecasters can see the race between Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek going different directions. RWH rates it as Tilt Democratic, while SCB says it leans Republican, and TE rates it Likely Republican. The other seven forecasters call the race a toss-up.
在堪萨斯，民主党人亚当·汉密尔顿正在挑战共和党籍现任参议员罗杰·马歇尔，4家预测机构——FPO、SCB、SB和ST——称该竞选倾向民主党。其余6家预测机构称其为势均力敌。
In Kansas, where Democrat Adam Hamilton is challenging Republican incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall, four forecasters—FPO, SCB, SB, and ST, say the race leans Democratic. The other six forecasters call it a toss-up.
在缅因，7家预测机构看好民主党人特洛伊·杰克逊胜过共和党籍现任参议员苏珊·柯林斯，将该竞选评为倾向或很大可能民主党胜出。CPR、IE和FNPR则称其为势均力敌。
In Maine, seven forecasters favor Democrat Troy Jackson over Republican incumbent Sen. Susan Collins, rating the race either Lean or Likely Democratic. CPR, IE, and FNPR call it a toss-up.
在密歇根州，只有 FNPR 将民主党人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德与共和党人迈克·罗杰斯之间的竞争评为势均力敌。IE 称其倾向民主党；CPR 和 SCB 称其偏向民主党；其余所有机构均将其评为很可能由民主党获胜。
In Michigan, only FNPR rates the race between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers as a toss-up. IE says it tilts Democratic; CPR and SCB say it leans Democratic; and the rest all rate it Likely Democratic.
在俄亥俄州，民主党籍前参议员谢罗德·布朗正在挑战共和党籍现任参议员乔恩·赫斯特德，七家预测机构看好布朗——将该竞争评为倾向或偏向民主党——而 CPR、DDHQ 和 TE 称其为势均力敌。
In Ohio, where Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown is challenging Republican incumbent Sen. Jon Husted, seven forecasters favor Brown—rating the race either Tilt or Lean Democratic— while CPR, DDHQ, and TE call it a toss-up.
在南卡罗来纳州，FNPR 和 RWH 将共和党参议员达琳·格雷厄姆与民主党人安妮·安德鲁斯之间的竞争评为势均力敌，而八家预测机构看好格雷厄姆保住她在其兄弟去世后继任的席位。IE 称其倾向共和党，TE 将该竞争评为很可能由共和党获胜，其余六家均称其偏向共和党。
In South Carolina, FNPR and RWH say the race between Republican Sen. Darline Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews is a toss-up, while eight forecasters favor Graham keeping the seat she filled after her brother’s passing. IE says it tilts Republican, TE rates the race Likely Republican, and the other six all say it leans Republican.
在得克萨斯州，七家预测机构看好民主党人詹姆斯·塔拉里科击败共和党人肯·帕克斯顿。IE 将该竞争评为倾向民主党；DDHQ、FPO、RWH 和 SCB 称其偏向民主党；SB 和 ST 将该竞争评为很可能由民主党获胜。CPR、FNPR 和 TE 称其为势均力敌。
In Texas, seven forecasters favor Democrat James Talarico over Republican Ken Paxton. IE rates the race as Tilt Democratic; DDHQ, FPO, RWH, and SCB say it leans Democratic; and SB and ST rate the race Likely Democratic. CPR, FNPR, and TE call it a toss-up.
在其余 27 场参议院竞争中，有 13 场一致被评为看好民主党。其中 9 场被所有 10 家预测机构评为稳操胜券或稳固由民主党获胜：科罗拉多州的约翰·希肯卢珀、特拉华州的克里斯·库恩斯、伊利诺伊州的朱莉安娜·斯特拉顿、马萨诸塞州的埃德·马基、新泽西州的科里·布克、新墨西哥州的本·雷·卢汉、俄勒冈州的杰夫·默克利、罗得岛州的杰克·里德，以及弗吉尼亚州的马克·沃纳。
Of the remaining 27 Senate races, 13 are unanimously rated in favor of Democrats. Nine of those are rated safely or solidly Democratic by all 10 forecasters: John Hickenlooper in Colorado, Chris Coons in Delaware, Juliana Stratton in Illinois, Ed Markey in Massachusetts, Cory Booker in New Jersey, Ben Ray Luján in New Mexico, Jeff Merkley in Oregon, Jack Reed in Rhode Island, and Mark Warner in Virginia.
另外四位民主党人——佐治亚州的乔恩·奥索夫、明尼苏达州的佩吉·弗拉纳根、新罕布什尔州的克里斯·帕帕斯，以及北卡罗来纳州的罗伊·库珀——一致被看好，尽管并非每家预测机构都将他们的竞争评为稳操胜券或稳固。
Another four Democrats—Jon Ossoff in Georgia, Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota, Chris Pappas in New Hampshire, and Roy Cooper in North Carolina—are unanimously favored, although not every forecaster rates their races as safe or solid.
其他14场竞选则被10位预测者一致评为有利于共和党。其中7场被所有10位预测者评为“安全共和党”或“稳固共和党”：阿拉巴马州的巴里·摩尔、阿肯色州的汤姆·科顿、爱达荷州的吉姆·里施、俄克拉荷马州的凯文·赫恩、田纳西州的比尔·哈格蒂、西弗吉尼亚州的雪莱·摩尔·卡皮托以及怀俄明州的哈丽特·哈格曼。另外7场竞选中，所有10位预测者均看好共和党候选人——佛罗里达州的阿什利·穆迪、肯塔基州的安迪·巴尔、路易斯安那州的朱莉娅·莱特洛、密西西比州的辛迪·海德-史密斯、蒙大拿州的库尔特·阿尔梅、内布拉斯加州的皮特·里基茨以及南达科他州的迈克·朗兹——尽管并非所有预测者都将这些竞选评为安全或稳固。
The other 14 races are unanimously rated in favor of Republicans. Seven are rated safely or solidly Republican by all 10 forecasters: Barry Moore in Alabama, Tom Cotton in Arkansas, Jim Risch in Idaho, Kevin Hern in Oklahoma, Bill Hagerty in Tennessee, Shelley Moore Capito in West Virginia, and Harriet Hageman in Wyoming. In seven more, all 10 forecasters favor the Republican candidate—Ashley Moody in Florida, Andy Barr in Kentucky, Julia Letlow in Louisiana, Cindy Hyde-Smith in Mississippi, Kurt Alme in Montana, Pete Ricketts in Nebraska, and Mike Rounds in South Dakota—though not all rate the contests as safe or solid.
《时代》的分析反映了预测者截至美国东部时间11月3日上午7点的评级。评级描述了预测者基于民调和基本面假设对每场竞选的评估，但并不代表必然结果。
TIME’s analysis reflects the forecasters’ ratings as of 7 a.m. ET, Nov. 3. Ratings describe the forecasters’ assessments of each race based on polling and fundamental assumptions, but they are not guaranteed outcomes.